With nearly 25% of the season passed, it remains a bit of an open-ended question as to what the O’s are. Here are some of our thoughts on what has been shown, and what we think we know.
1) The Orioles are… a team with power. The O’s are currently leading the Major Leagues with 58 homers, and 5th overall in Slugging %. Baltimore has 7 different players, with at-least 5 homers. If Reimold returns, and Reynolds’ injury does not linger; the O’s have 8 players that figure to have 15+ bombs.
2) The Orioles are… a team with defensive issues, compounded by the complexion of the roster. The up-the-middle defense is fine to good. Markakis is not an issue in RF. You want to be playing Davis’ everyday at 1st. Despite his recent offensive struggles, his overall numbers are good. You want to give him opportunities to play through his current slump (and those in the future) and see what you have from him over 500+ ab’s. His defense at 1st is becoming an issue. You can continue to play him daily through offensive slumps, you can’t play him everyday if he continues to give away runs at 1st.
For several years, we have brought up the fact that the O’s will become more reliant on having Wieters in the lineup as he matures. That time has arrived. The O’s need his bat pretty much everyday. As a catcher, he needs 30-40 days off behind the plate. That means he has to DH, if you want to keep him in the lineup. That is an issue, because Betemit’s best best position is DH, and Johnson can only play 1st. You can play Johnson at 1st, but then you are still left with trying to find Betemit and Davis ab’s against RHP.
This is compounded further when Reynolds returns. I had hoped that Reynolds’ defense would return to his ’09, and ’10 levels, but it has not. The liability that he was in ’11, remains here in ’12. The problem is, Reynolds has a .809 OPS in 2,605 career ab’s, and the O’s need him in the lineup when healthy. When he comes back, you have four players, where ideally only 1 would be in the field.
Perhaps the solution for the rest of this year, will be starting each, and having a bench of capable defensive replacements to use late?
3) The Orioles are… not winning with smoke and mirrors. The O’s are 6th in runs scored, 11th in ERA, 13-7 against the AL East, 11-5 on the road, and 8-3-1 in all series played. Those are all indications of consistently competitive play.
4) The Orioles are… not likely to improve their on-base %. They currently rank 16th overall, 8th in the AL. Last year they were 19th overall, 10th in the AL. When the O’s don’t hit homers, their offense stagnates. If the O’s can improve this any further, and continue slugging; they can go from having an above-average offense, to being a powerhouse.
5) The Orioles are… getting fantastic production from multiple members of the bullpen. My take all year has been that the bullpen can continue to be productive – though not at this current level – as long as the rotation continues to provide regular innings. What is interesting is that the O’s are only 22nd in Quality Starts, and I believe in the lower 1/3 of innings by starters. However, as long as as the starters are not consistently flaming out, the bullpen has a chance to match-up.
6) The Orioles are…abysmal when they attempt to run. So far this year, they have 11 steals, and 10 runners caught stealing. Don’t ever recall seeing a team with that type of ratio. Speed looks better with Avery in the lineup. Chavez can run a bit (though he has to get on-base to be able to run). Reimold gets out of the box quickly for a right-handed hitter. Jones runs well, Markakis is not a plodder. Andino stole 13 bases last year, but has yet to steal a base in ’12.
7) The Orioles are…going to stay as good as their rotation allows them to be. Arrieta was awesome in NY, and abysmal the last two times out. His era is back over 5. (Though his FIP is under 4.) Matusz was fantastic against NY, beat up by Texas, and solid against Tampa Bay. He has yet to go 7 innings in any start. Hammel has pitched liked Kevin Brown. Chen has pitched like a Rookie of the Year candidate, and Tommy Hunter has pitched like a 5th starter. As long as they continue to take the ball every 5th day, I think the O’s will exceed the expectations they entered the year with. The level of surprise will be totally dependent on how good the starters are. Can Arrieta, and Matusz find some positive consistency? Can Hammel continue to pile up K’s, and grounders with his 2 seamer? Chen has pitched like a 2nd starter, does that continue? As the weather warms, does he allow more homers? How does he hold-up, once he is regularly pitching every 5th day? Can Hunter start to keep the ball down, and keep the ball from leaving the park more often?
Will Britton be back at the end of the month, or into early June? If so, does he reach his upside? Who is up next if multiple injuries occur?
8) The Orioles are… 23-14, 9 games over .500. To have their first non-losing year since ’97, Baltimore has to go 58-67 (.464) the rest of the way. I went into the year thinking .500 was possible, but calling for 74 wins. The truth is, after calling for 83 wins last year, I was scared off with another sub 70 win season. I should have stuck with my conviction that there is more talent here than has been claimed. We polled 19 writers and analysts going into ’11. The average predicted win total was 78. To me, those predicted 78 wins, was a more accurate representation of the talent the O’s had last year, vs. the 69 wins they actually achieved. Going into ’12, the O’s upgraded at 1st, LF, and DH. The rotation was improved, the bullpen was improved. There are reasons why a .500 season still might not occur this year, but there are reasons why 81+ wins could happen.
With a quarter of the season passed, we have some ideas of who we think the O’s are. We know these first 37 games have been entertaining. We also know we will have a much clearer understanding of who these O’s actually are by the All-Star break.
