On Sunday, the Baltimore Ravens (2-1, 2nd place in the AFC North) host the Carolina Panthers (2-1, 2nd place in the NFC South).
In this first game outside of their Division, the Ravens will be looking to extend their winning streak to three.
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1) Last year, the Panthers were 12-4 overall, and won the NFC South. The 2nd seed in the NFC Playoffs, they lost to the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round at home. That loss was followed by an off-season of questions. Obviously prior to signing with Baltimore, Steve Smith was released ending his 13 year career with the Panthers organization. Three-time Pro Bowl (one-time All-Pro) OT Jordan Gross retired. Including Smith, the top four WR’s did not return for this year. Three out of the four Secondary positions also turned over. On top off everything else, Cam Newton had off-season ankle surgery. This was a team that many prognosticators across the game pegged for regression in 2014.
Carolina opened the year with wins at Tampa Bay, and vs. Detroit at home; prior to facing the Steelers Sunday Night at home. Pittsburgh delivered a beating under the National lights, making the the Panthers look more like the team many anticipated Carolina to look like going into this season.
2) It’s completely understandable that Smith Sr has had this week circled on his calendar for sometime. He’s been highly targeted (32 targets), and already has 18 receptions on the year. This past Sunday vs. Cleveland, he was targeted 7 times, and had 5 catches – going over 100 yards for the second time on season. Carolina will be aware that Smith will want to make a statement against his former organization. Who covers him? Is additional coverage shifted towards him, opening up opportunities for others? As we said above, there was significant turnover in the Carolina Secondary. The starting corners are Antoine Cason, and Melvin White. Cason is a former 1st round pick (2008 Draft) who spent the early years of his career with San Diego, prior to joining Arizona last year. White enjoyed a strong rookie season last year, going from being UDFA to starting 10 games for the Panthers. At Safety, the starters are Roman Harper, and Thomas DeCoud. Harper is a 2x Pro Bowler (2009, 2010), who joined Carolina from the Saints. DeCoud comes Atlanta, and the FS is also a former Pro Bowler (2012). With New Orleans, and the Falcons being Divisional opponents, Carolina was clearly familiar with these additions.
3) Carolina comes into this weekend ranked 14th in Total Defense (8th against the Pass, 27th against the Run). This corresponds well with Football Outsiders DVOA, which has Carolina’s Defensive Rank 13th overall. In the Sunday Night game, I was taken aback by the Steelers success on the ground against the well-regarded Front 7 for the Panthers. Pittsburgh held the ball for over 34 minutes, rolling up 264 rushing yards on 34 attempts (7.8 ypc). That number somewhat inflated by the long 81 yard, and 50 yard runs by Bell, and Blount; but still – those carries happened as well.
Carolina runs a 4-3, with Charles Johnson at LE. Johnson had 33 sacks the past 3 years, but is still looking for his first this year. Inside at LDT is the space-eater Colin Cole (330 lbs). Next to Cole is RDT Star Lotulelei. Lotulelei, was a 1st round pick last year, selected 14th overall out of Utah. In his Rookie year, he finished 4th in the AP Defensive Rookie of the Year voting. Lotulelei draws comparisons to Ngata on his style of play. Opposite of Johnson at RE is Mario Addison. Addison who entered 2014 with just 3.5 sacks in 31 career games, has 3.5 sacks in the first 3 games of this year. 2014 2nd rounder Kony Ealy, and former Raven Dwan Edwards add depth to the line.
4) At LB, everything starts with the man-in-the-middle Luke Kuechly. The 1st round pick was the AP Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2012. He followed that up, by being named AP Defensive Player of the Year last year, while also being named an All-Pro for the first time. Ravens fans saw him running sideline-to-sideline in a Preseason game last year. To right of Kuechly is Thomas Davis. Davis was a 2005 1st round pick, that played just 9 games during the 2009-11 seasons. Finally returning to health, he’s played well the last two years. In 2013, Davis had 123 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 picks.
5) We talked about the success the Steelers had running the ball on the Panthers, but Carolina’s issues running the ball should also be noted. There was a lot of discussion during August that Jonathan Stewart looked the best he had in some-time (15 games total in ’12, and ’13). Through 3 games, he has just 29 carries overall, and is averaging a paltry 3.0 yards per carry. DeAngelo Williams has been inactive the past two games with a thigh injury, after having 72 yards on 14 carries vs. Tampa Bay. He is expected to return to practice today though. All-Pro FB Mike Tolbert is now going to miss at-least 8 games with a hairline fracture in his left leg.
6) The Panthers are 20th overall in Total Offense (10th in Passing, 29th in Rushing). Despite those struggles on the ground, Football Outsiders DVOA has Carolina 13th overall Offensively.
7) With Smith here in Baltimore, the primary WR targets are Kelvin Benjamin (2014 1st round pick, Jason Avant, Jerricho Cotchery, and Philly Brown. Benjamin is a huge target at 6’5, 240 lbs. The Rookie went over 100 yards in a game for the first time Sunday, and had 11 grabs. He’s averaging 15.8 yards per reception. Avant joined the Panthers this year, after spending his entire career (2006-13) with Philadelphia. After three straight seasons of 50+ catches, his receptions dropped to 38 last year. He has been dealing with a thigh injury. Cotchery was a very strong possession receiver with the Jets earlier in his career. After two (2011, 2012) lean years with Pittsburgh, he rebounded with 46 grabs in 2013. Cotchery was inactive Sunday night with a hamstring injury. With Avant and Cotchery banged up, Brown took advantage of the opportunity and had the first 7 receptions of his career. He was an UDFA who starred at Ohio State.
8) One safety-net that remains in the passing offense is TE Greg Olsen. Olsen had 142 receptions the past two years, including 11 TD’s. He’s already been targeted 26 times so far here in 2014. While the primary story-line Sunday will be Smith facing his former team, former Raven Ed Dickson is returning to Baltimore the first time. There were high hopes for Dickson when he was drafted, but he had problems with his hands, and did not consistently show the athleticism that scouts talked about when he was drafted. With the Panthers, he has been targeted just once in the first 3 weeks.
9) 2010 Heisman Trophy winning Cam Newton has had a productive NFL career to-date. He won multiple Rookie of the Year awards in 2011, and is a 2x Pro Bowler (2011, 2013). After playing in each game his first 3 years, he missed the opener here in 2014 vs. Tampa Bay. Last year he threw for the lowest amount of yards (3,379) in his career, but also posted his highest career completion percentage (61.7). By ESPN’s QBR metric, he was 14th overall at 56.2. In his 3 previous seasons, he has run for at-least 585 yards a season, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. The Panthers did not call a single zone-read against Pittsburgh, and Newton is said to be dealing with ‘constant nagging soreness’ in both his ankle and ribs.
10) Prediction time. At-home against a banged-up Panthers squad, this is a game the Ravens need to win, and I think they will.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.