With a 6 game winning streak, the Baltimore Orioles enter play Sunday at 31-30. Meaning that even if they don’t complete the sweep today vs. New York; the O’s will be sporting a .500 record with 100 games remaining schedule.

The bandwagon is ready to ride once more!

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

That’s probably some unnecessary light snark on my part. Anyone who negatively critiqued the play they saw from the O’s over April and May was right to do so. The play was not good. However, if you had the opinion that all was lost, that was where I disagreed. It didn’t take irrational optimism to think the O’s play should improve, or believe that nobody was going to run and hide in the AL East.

Ultimately, none of that matters. What matters is that this winning streak has effectively reset things for the Birds. What matters is where things go from here. Before today’s game, the O’s are in 4th place in the Division, but only 2 games back of NY and Tampa Bay. There are six teams ahead of Baltimore in the Wild Card race, but the O’s are only 2 games out. The goals the O’s had coming into the 2015 season are still obtainable.

Baseball is full of cliches. Here are two that I readily believe in. 1) In the marathon that is an MLB season, it really is difficult to get too high, or too low. 2) You are not as good as you look when things are going great, nor as poor as you look when things are going badly.

Things even out over the course of a year. If a player is greatly exceeding expectations, typically there will be a market correction. Same if you have a player that is struggling with numbers below career averages. If you are a Seinfeld fan, it is the extension of the ‘Even Steven‘ principal. The idea that with increasing time, things even out.

As of today, the O’s are:

10th in Runs Scored
9th in Batting Average
19th in On-Base %
5th in Slugging %
13th in ERA
25th in Quality Starts
14th in WHIP
9th in Batting Average Against
9th in Defensive Efficiency
+17 in Run Differential

Most of these numbers look to be in-line with the expectations I had (and believe most had) for the O’s entering this season.

Over the last three seasons the Birds have had an upper-third offense overall. It was easy to anticipate more of the same coming into 2015. Finishing in the Top 10 in runs scored. A Top 5-7 offense in terms of slugging. A team with mediocre on-base % abilities. Basically a team with plus power, that can score runs in bunches when the ball is flying, and can look anemic when they don’t find the seats.

On April 24th I wrote, “Orioles starters have a 5.82 era, worst overall in the game.
In 2014, O’s starters had a 3.61 era, good for 12th best overall (5th in the AL). In the 2nd half, they were collectively down to 2.98. That 2nd half era last year was extremely low. That current 5.82 era is extremely high. It didn’t make sense to project that 2nd half era to be maintained throughout 2015, nor does it make sense to believe the O’s starters will remain abysmal throughout this year. Ultimately I see the O’s starters being around the middle of the pack. That 3.61 starters era last year would currently be good for 9th overall. Somewhere between that as a low, and 4.30 for a high, seems likely to me for their final numbers this season.”

Coming into today, Birds starters have a 4.23 era (21st overall). I think there is room for that to continue to improve.

One of the main culprits of the O’s early struggles was the defense. The Baltimore team has been built around power, plus defense, a quality bullpen, and starters capable of keeping the team in games. When the defense was not doing their job, the negative impact was severe. It shouldn’t be a surprise that the play improved as Hardy returned, and the law of averages returned for Machado. The early throwing problems with the O’s 3rd baseman were an aberration. He’s healthy. He’s moving well. He’s previously shown to be as good defensively as there is in the game. He’s still years from his prime. There was no rational reason to think he would not rebound and again prove to be elite at the hot-corner.  If anything, I think the O’s Defensive Efficiency will only improve during the remainder of the year.

Last night, FOX Sports’ Studio Analyst said the AL East could be won with 86 wins. With respect to that analyst (apologies, I did not catch his name) that seems highly unlikely to me. I think what you’ll see is at-least two teams (and possibly three) in the Division win 85+. I expect the winner will be around 92 wins.

Let’s say the O’s win today. Can they play .600 ball the remainder of the year (60-40 in the last 100 games) to finish with 92 wins? It’s possible, but it will not be easy. Only one team (St. Louis) currently has a winning percentage of .600+. The need for an extended stretch of plus play, illustrates how the struggles of the first two months did matter, and will impact the O’s all year. Those struggles don’t have to define them though. They can be overcome.

Can be overcome, and will be overcome are two different things though. Let’s see what happens between now and the non-waiver deadline first. The O’s have put together a great week, can they put together 6 weeks of good play?

The return of Wieters and Reimold has added depth to the lineup. Can further injuries be avoided? Can they keep this same general group together? Does Schoop get closer to a return? Does Gonzalez’s groin injury linger, or is he back in two weeks? What exactly is the plan with Gausman? After a couple of 3 inning rehab starts, his next outing Tuesday is scheduled for just 2 innings. Are the O’s really planning on just using him out of the bullpen this year?

Here are a few things I’ll be keying on over the next few weeks:

1) Tom Verducci (Sports Illustrated / FOX Sports) said last night that he doesn’t consider Machado likely to develop into a power (30 homer) bat. That comment seemed odd to me considering the O’s 3rd baseman is on-pace for 29 homers this year, and this is his age 22/23 season. He’s still years from what should be his prime. His ability to go to right with power is something we’ve always liked about him – especially as we’ve projected forward. Going into today’s game, Machado has an fWAR of 2.0.  That will only increase with the defensive lapses seemingly behind him. He had an .804 OPS in April. He had an .804 OPS in May. He has an .893 OPS so far in June (.822 overall). I’ve maintained for sometime that I believe he’s the O’s most talented overall player. We might be on the verge of seeming him really break out offensively.

2) As we said above, Reimold has helped add depth to the lineup. I want to see him in the lineup each day until negative production, and / or injury dictates a move. It’s great to see a legitimately healthy Reimold back with the Birds. Power to all fields. Hustles every play. Plus athleticism. Patience at the plate. A good arm. The only thing he lacks is great route running in the OF. Still, with his speed / hustle / and arm strength he is not a butcher. Much like Pearce carried the O’s at times last year, I think Reimold can do the same for the Birds here in 2015.

3) Speaking of Pearce, he’s jumped his average from .186 to start June to .212 as of today. He’s consistently putting together better ab’s. I expect his numbers will continue to improve. My question going into the year was would he hit right-handed pitching like he did in ’14? If he really warms up, the offense as a whole looks that much better.

4) Hardy has hits in each of the O’s last 6 wins, but it is no secret that his first 100+ ab’s in this ’15 season have been brutal. 4 bb’s, vs. 26 k’s. An on-base % under .240, a slugging % under .300. I think after the time missed in April, May was basically spent working his way back into game shape. Unfortunately for him, those stats still count. Now that he seems to have his legs under him, let’s see where his numbers go from here. In any event, it’s imperative to keep his glove available daily.

5) Flaherty is doing some nice things right now. His on-base % is up to .350, he’s playing a good 2nd base. It’s certainly nice having a player of his caliber available to replace the injured Schoop. It looks like Schoop could join Bowie by the end of next week. I’m curious to see what Flaherty can do with some extended regular playing time, and seeing where Schoop is when he returns.

6) You basically know what you are going to get from Britton and O’Day. If the O’s lead in the 8th, they will generally win. That’s a great feeling. The O’s bullpen is currently 6th overall in ERA. When Brach, and Hunter are on; it’s a strong group overall. Matusz is coming off of his suspension. He’s not exactly a fan favorite at this point, but the O’s need a lefty. If he does his job vs. lefties the next few weeks, great. If not, the O’s will have to thinking of a change. Prior to the suspension it appeared that Showalter lacked confidence in Matusz. If you aren’t going to use him in situations that dictate his use, that is also cause for a change.

7) Jimenez has made 12 starts this year. In my opinion, none was more important than his start Friday vs. New York. He was coming off of an outing vs. Cleveland where he had 6 walks. While his command was still not sharp, it was encouraging that he didn’t again have half-a-dozen free passes. In his 67.2 ip, he has allowed 63 hits, and has 66 k’s. Opposing hitters have a .666 OPS. Last year his BB% was 13.9%. We said if he could get back to his career average (10.7%) he could rebound. So far this year he’s at 8.4%. If he stays anywhere near this level, he could put together a pretty big year. Really looking forward to seeing if he can get hot, and string together some strong starts.

Over 82 starts (July 2012 – 2014), Chris Tillman was extremely consistent. In comparison to his ’12-’14 numbers, his K% is down, and his BB% is up. The other thing that jumps out to me is that his O-Swing % (% of pitches a batter swings at outside of the strikezone) is down. The most important thing Tillman provides is that he takes the ball every 5th day, and gives the team 200+ innings a year. I do expect Tillman to rebound from what we’ve seen so far here in ’15. (His numbers were better in the 2nd half of both the last two seasons.)  No time like the present though. If the O’s want to dream of playing .600 ball the remainder of the year, that can not happen without Tillman reaching his previous average level of production. What he does over his next 7 starts or so, will have a significant impact on where the O’s are at the end of July.

8) If the O’s follow-up this winning streak with regression back to the general level of play we saw over April and May; then it will be hard to argue against moving the players you can and looking to add depth and team-controlled contracts to a relatively thin system. If the O’s catch fire, the question will become what does the Front Office need to target to augment what exists?

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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