20% Of The Season In The Books, Thoughts?

With an 8-4 Sunday victory in Los Angeles, the Baltimore Orioles capped a highly successful 3 city road-trip, with their 7th victory in 11 games. This improved the Orioles to 19-13 overall, and gave the Birds their 5th series win in the past 6 series played.

With 20% of the season now in the books, the O’s rank:

4th in Runs
9th in Batting Average
13th in On-Base %
7th in Slugging %
16th in ERA
17th in Quality Starts
11th in WHIP
8th in Batting Average Against
1st in Defensive Efficiency

Let’s go around the diamond, and give some updated thoughts on parts of the roster individually.

Matt Wieters: The Orioles have played 32 games, Wieters has played in 30. In those 30 games he has accumulated 103 ab’s, and has a .672 OPS (.745 for his career). Through 16 games Wieters was 6 for 35 vs. RHP. Through 32 games Wieters is 14 for 71 (.572 OPS) vs. RHP. He has hits in 6 of his last 8 games, so maybe we see him climb towards his career averages during the rest of May.

Chris Davis: The American League’s Player of the Month in April scared Baltimore when he had to leave a game in LA with a buckled knee. Seeing him back in the lineup yesterday was great. We talked about Davis in the Game thread yesterday, about how he is due to go through a stretch where he expands his zone, and looks lost. (2 for his last 12, with 2 bb’s and 6 k’s, maybe he is in the early stages of one such stretch?) The key will be minimizing any forthcoming lulls. His production vs. RHP (1.243 OPS, 61 ab’s) is ridiculous, but his production vs. LHP (.870 OPS, 41 ab’s) is also strong. After walking 37 times last year, Davis already has 18 walks so far in ’13. His UZR/150 is running negative, but his defense has looked plenty competent to the eye.

Ryan Flaherty: As a Rule 5 player last year, Flaherty was in a tough position in the first half of 2012. His ab’s were very sporadic, and being asked to produce in sporadic ab’s in his first exposure to Major League pitching was difficult. Playing more regularly in the 2nd half, Flaherty showed some pop. With Roberts injury, Flaherty has received pretty consistent playing time to start 2013. In his 72 ab’s, he has just 9 hits. He has struck-out 20 times (though he has more walks – 7 – then he had in his 153 ab’s – 6 – that he had last year). I do believe he is a better hitter than he has shown, but he has been overwhelmed to date. The issues at the plate are not being taken into the field, and that is a credit to Flaherty. His improvement at 2nd over last year is stark.

Alexi Casilla: Over the O’s last 16 games, Casilla has played in 4 games, and has gone 1 for 13. For the year, Casilla is 7 for 35 (.200). As a switch-hitter, known for his defense, why is Flaherty receiving so much more playing time? My assumption is that Showalter sees additional upside in Flaherty, and has wanted to give Flaherty an extended chance to produce. With the lack of production from Flaherty, I think Casilla deserves some additional time. In his 1,615 career ab’s, Flaherty has a .636 OPS (.249 batting average). Certainly not ‘good’, but it would represent a significant improvement over what the O’s have received out of 2nd base so far this year.

JJ Hardy: With 5 hits (including 2 homers) in his last 3 games in LA; Hardy has raised his average over the Mendoza line, and has brought his OPS up to .607.  The approach as a whole lately (hits in 7 of 10 games, 4 multi-hit games) has been better. You can see Hardy been consciously attempting to go to RF more often. Through the O’s first 16 games, his UZR/150 was running negative. Through the O’s first 32 games (Hardy has played every-day), the UZR/150 is back positive, and similar to his career average. Do the O’s find him a day off at some point? Is Hardy due for a prolonged stretch of improved offense?

Manny Machado: Like Hardy, Machado has also played everyday. Through 16 games, his on-base% was under .300. Over the O’s 32 games as a whole, Machado is now batting .309, with a .352  OBP, and slugging .522 (.874 OPS). That offense plus his elite defense as the hot-corner means Machado is already producing like a star – with his 21st birthday still two months from today. In 191 ab’s last year, Machado had 18 xbh’s. In 136 ab’s this year, Machado has 18 xbh’s. Last year, Machado had 9 bb’s. This year, Machado has 9 bb’s. It’s hard to project where his offense this year, goes from here. He is not out-performing his talent, he is out-performing expectations of what most thought he could accomplish in his first full-year in the bigs. It seems realistic to expect he will go cold at some point, but I’m sensing I sold Machado short when I wrote out his 2013 projection. One interesting note in his numbers – he is crushing RHP, and struggling a bit vs. lefties. Possibly due to him not seeing many lefties so far in his career?

Nate McLouth: McLouth is certainly making the O’s Front Office look smart right now. In the 27 games McLouth has played, he has 16 bb’s against just 10 k’s. He has 8 xbh’s in his 96 ab’s. He has 9 steals. He is murdering RH pitching. His play has been so strong, that some want to see him get more ab’s vs. lefties (just 2 for 12 this year, .648 OPS in just under 700 ab’s vs. Southpaws for his career). His UZR/150 is still negative, but that figures to change. His play in left has been quality, and his below-average arm has not been an issue. I’m not expecting McLouth to have .392 wOBA all year, but he certainly looks closer to the McLouth of ’08, and ’09 vs. the injury riddled and non-performing McLouth of ’10 through the first-half of ’12. His play has been so strong, that I’m beginning to think the O’s should be approaching him about extending him through ’14 now. If he regresses, and he looks more like a 4th OF, so be it. If he performs like an All-Star all year, he is going to be that much more expensive, and that much harder to replace should you lose him.

Adam Jones: With Davis being the AL Player of the Month for April, it would be hard to argue against Davis as the current choice for ‘Most Valuable Oriole.’ I would expect if the M.V.O. vote was held today though, that Jones would be the 2nd choice. Playing everyday, Jones has hits in 28 of the O’s 32 games played. He has 12 multi-hit games, and 44 hits overall. Remarkably, while he is batting .331, he is reaching base just 36% of the time. While 36% is strong on it’s own, it’s low when the average is driving so much of that. For the year, Jones has walked just 5 times, while striking out 29 times. While the average probably regresses, maybe the slugging will not? He currently has a slugging percentage of .519, which is basically in-line with the .505 slugging percentage he posted last year. Beyond playing daily, I love how often you see him slide hard into 2nd. Despite this offensive production, the story with Jones over the last 16 games his been his defense. For several years there has been a disparity between the advanced defensive metrics and Jones’ reputation in CF. Some people think Jones is lazy in CF (I personally do not.) I believe he gets poor jumps (others do not), and takes poor routes to the ball. Whatever you believe is the reason why Jones defense has not been acceptable, it is on Jones (and the O’s Coaching staff) to improve the play. He has the physical skills to be better, and it fair to ask for improvement from him.

Nick Markakis: In the 2nd half last year, Markakis had his best stretch of play since the ’08 season. One theory I gave at the time, was that his legs were rested after missing time for the first time in his career. After starting of strong to begin ’13, Markakis currently sees his OPS under .700. He has played every game. While Nick probably wants to play everyday, maybe Showalter needs to try and limit Nick to 140 games? Maybe some additional rest will improve the production? Markakis should be a guy that competes for a batting title, and gets back to 40+ doubles. A .271 batting average, and 4 doubles in 133 ab’s is not good enough for a guy with Nick’s abilities. Overall, this is probably just a blip, and we see things average out during the season. One thing to watch is Markakis vs. LHP. For his career, Nick has a .760 OPS vs. lefties. In ’13, Markakis has just a .510 OPS in 48 ab’s vs. lefties. Despite not hitting at optimal levels, you have to like the 11 bb’s vs. 11 k’s. In 2008, the eyes and the advanced defensive metrics were aligned about Markakis’ play in RF. He was elite. Since ’08, Markakis has had a negative UZR/150 every year. Of course he also added a Gold Glove in ’11, so there has been debate about his glove. Interestingly, Markakis’ UZR/150 is currently positive. I do think his throwing looks better this year, which is understandable. You have to think the abdomen, wrist, and thumb injuries impacted the throwing in ’12.

Steve Pearce: With 3 hits Saturday, Pearce raised his average from .167 to .235. He still only has 34 ab’s on the year.

Nolan Reimold: It’s been a rough first 90 ab’s for Reimold. 27 k’s shows he has just not been seeing the ball well. 2 doubles in that time shows he is just not hitting that many balls hard. Historically, dating back to his Minor League days, we have seen Reimold have stretches where he looked lost offensively, followed by just scorching production. We’ve gone through a month + of him looking lost, so the hope is some quality play is around the corner. As Davis, and Jones come back to Earth a bit, the O’s are going to need Reimold to be one of the guys that picks up the slack. Since Machado first came up last year, one of the things we have liked best about him, is his ability to drive the ball to right. That’s also one of the things we’ve always liked about Reimold. He has power to all fields. I’d like to see him string together some ab’s, get some hits, and going. Currently Reimold has a .630 OPS. Should he stay healthy enough to stay in the lineup, I still expect him to finish with an OPS at .800+.

Jason Hammel: 7 starts into Hammel’s 2013 season, we are not seeing the same level of quality we saw from him last year. In 2012, Hammel had a K% of 22.9. In ’13, it is down to 14.4%. In 2012, Hammel had a GB% of 53.2%. In ’13, it is down to 44.4%. The fastball (2 seam, and 4 seam) velocity is down 1 mile per hour. Opposing teams slugging % is higher than last year. There appears to be less movement, and more balls up in the zone. Many people have said he is not throwing the 2 seam FB enough. Interestingly, Pitch F/X says he is throwing it 40.3% of the time (as opposed to 35.1% last year). During a recent Hammel start, MASN’s Jim Palmer stated he believed Hammel’s mechanics were not quite as strong as they were last year. His xFIP is over 5. I feel like he could benefit by looking at his 2012 highlights. If all of that comes across as me being overly ‘down’ on Hammel, I’m not. He is giving the O’s a chance to win every time out (6 starts of at-least 6ip, every start 4 er or less). I just think he showed an extremely high ceiling last year, and again finding that version of Hammel would be huge for the Birds.

Wei-Yin Chen: The 2nd year lefty has made 6 starts. After tossing his best start of the year in Oakland, Chen had his worst start of the year in Seattle. His K’s per IP, and GB% are both down, but he is also giving up less homers. I expect each of those numbers to change. He will get more k’s, he will get more grounders (not a ton, but more), and he will allow more homers. Like last year, he has pitched on an extra-day of rest several times. Overall I continue to expect Chen to finish with numbers very similar to last year. A guy whose best values are that he is going to regularly take the ball, give innings, and give the O’s a chance to win. Not an ace, but a consistently reliable starter who provides a lot of value. I understand some will point to his xFIP (5.20), and believe that is a better indication of what we will see from Chen going forward.

Miguel Gonzalez: Gonzalez remains fun to watch pitch. He has a clear game-plan on the mound. In his 6 starts, he has provided at-least 5.2 innings 5 times. He has allowed 3 er or less 4 times, and 4 er or less in each outing. He has had a couple of starts where he was going strong, and seemingly quickly hit a wall. He had to leave his last start when he developed a blister. He has had pretty much equal ab’s vs. RH and LH batters. Interestingly, he is dominating LH hitters, and getting crushed vs. RH hitters. One of the concerns going into ’13, was would Gonzalez be competent in the rotation? Was his 2nd half a complete aberration, and would we see the clock strike midnight for him? So far, Gonzalez looks like he belongs. He might be a back-of-the-rotation guy, but he looks like he belongs.

Chris Tillman: Following 3 mediocre-to-poor starts to begin ’13, Tillman has turned in 3 successive encouraging outings. Over his last 20.2 innings pitched, Tillman has allowed just 3 er, lowering his ERA to 3.63 (4.53 xFIP). There has been some nice life, and movement to his stuff. I believe he is going to remain a reliable starter. I’m interested to see if he can elevate his game further.

Jim Johnson: Johnson has appeared in 16 games, and he has 11 saves. His K rate is higher this year, as he has 14 in his 16 innings of work. With Johnson getting more k’s, his GB% has dropped. However he gets the outs, the conclusion is the same – he is elite. Closers are fairly replaceable, elite Closers are not.

Darren O’Day: Like Johnson, O’Day has appeared in 1/2 of the O’s games. In his 16.1 ip, he has struck out 16. He has allowed just 11 hits. After allowing 14 bb’s in 67 ip last year, he has walked 6 so far this year. The OPS against O’Day has dropped from last year, as opposing batters are slugging just .268 against him. On pace for 81.1 innings, I think the hope is to use him a bit less in the coming Month.

Brian Matusz: If you want to limit some of the wear-and-tear on O’Day, hopefully Matusz can help pick up some of that slack. Matusz has made 13 appearances, pitching 12.2 innings. As a former starter, I would like to think he has more innings available – even though we acknowledge the adjustment in being used regularly. Matusz has allowed just 6 hits, and has 13 k’s. Lefties have no chance against him. RH hitters are doing better, but not well. The better he does out of the pen, the louder the chorus gets for him to return to the rotation. I think the O’s are comfortable where he is.

Tommy Hunter: After the first 16 games, I said the following, “Hunter out of the pen includes an up-tick in velocity. Still not a lot of movement. He is going to attack the plate (o walks, after just 27 in 133.2 ip last year), and sometimes he is going to get hit (3 homers allowed in 6.1 ip, after allowing 32 in ’12). I like Hunter as a member of the staff, and a potential swing starter if necessary. I don’t believe I would ever have confidence in him in high-leverage situations.” It has been a nice start to the year for Hunter. 10 games, 14.2 ip, 11 hits, 3 hr’s, 3 bb’s, 10 k’s. During the trip to Seattle, he pitched on back-to-back games for the first time. Will be interesting to see if Showalter attempts to lean on him a bit more going forward.

Troy Patton: Patton has not been as sharp (8 bb’s in 13 innings), but he has remained effective. LH hitters are hitting him pretty good, RH hitters are not.

TJ McFarland: I’d like to see McFarland used more. He has just 6 outings on the year, as Showalter is saving him in-case he needs to be available for extended appearances. In his 6 outings, he has pitched 12.2 innings, and has 17 k’s.

Pedro Strop: After 16 games, we said the following about Strop, “Following a tough September, it was good to see Strop have the success he had this Spring with the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. It is never going to be a question of stuff with Strop. The issue with him will always be, ‘Will Strop beat himself?’ In the early game today, Strop got in trouble not with the fluke broken-bat single, but with the walk that preceded that. The wild pitch to allow the run was not acceptable. Against Tampa Bay earlier in the week, he allowed 2 homers in the same inning, after allowing just 2 homers all of last year. We talked before the year about how we believed you could see a jump in ERA, but a continuance in overall effectiveness from Strop. We expected a jump in ERA if he allowed more homers, but expected him to retain his high level of ground outs, due to the weak contact he incites. It seems clear that Showalter is going to have to build back Strop’s confidence a bit. What happens with Strop is one of the keys to this team. If you get him going, you have to feel good about the O’s chances of maintaining 6 inning leads. If he becomes a liability, that really impacts the pen as a whole. I think with his control issues, you will sometimes see him have rough stretches. What happens with Strop over the next Month plus (and how he used) will be very interesting to see.”

Well, what we saw was Strop continuing to have mechanical issues. After recording 2 outs yesterday, Strop has not allowed an earned run in his last 5.2 innings. This has been a bit hollow though, because it has been with Showalter picking and choosing when he was going to use Strop, attempting to avoid using Strop in the highest leverage situations. The OPS against is .746, which is respectable, but above last year’s marks. His GB% is 60%, which is below last year’s level, but still elite. His K% is down slightly, but his K/9 rate is higher. The primary issue is obviously the walks – 9 in his 11 innings of work. Even in this run of recent scoreless outings, he has still walked 6 in those 5.2 innings.

Overall Thoughts:

It was extremely impressive to see the O’s go West on a 3 City, 11 game trip, and return to Baltimore with 7 wins. The Orioles are 19-13 overall, 1.5 GB of Boston in the AL East. It’s the first week of May, but I believe I’ve seen enough to believe the O’s are going to again contend this year. As long as they stay in the race through the non-waiver deadline, I think you see them augment the roster.

What happens with Roberts this Month? Does he return? Garcia had a nice return to the Majors this weekend. Is he capable of grabbing the 5th starter’s job for the next Month or two? If not, do we see Jurrjens? Is Tsuyoshi Wada ready to make his ML debut to start June? Arrieta’s had two quality starts (as one would expect) at AAA. Does he force his way back? Britton came up, and was promptly sent back down. Does he get on a roll at Norfolk? Will Betemit be on track to return in June?

Some of the regulars could probably use some rest. Will Showalter be able to find some games off for them?

The next 16 games for the O’s are:
Home vs. KC (3 games)
Away at Twins (3 games)
Home vs. SD (2 games)
Home vs. Tampa Bay (3 games)
Home vs. New York (3 games)
Away at Toronto (2 games)

The Royals are a 1/2 game out of the AL Central lead, but the Twins and Padres are under .500. The O’s will end this next 16 game stretch with 8 games vs. the division. You certainly want to win both of those home series vs. the Rays and Yankees.