A rough Spring Training is coming to an end, and the beginning of the 2016 season is now just days away for the Baltimore Orioles. What should we expect from the O’s this year? The simplistic answer is more of the same of what we’ve seen over the past four seasons.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

We should expect more of the same, because the profile of the O’s has not significantly changed.

Over these last four years, Baltimore has consistently been a team with power, below average on-base skills, a plus defense, a quality bullpen, and middling starting pitching.

In 2016, Baltimore will be a team with power, below average on-base skills, a plus defense, a quality bullpen, and middling starting pitching.

So, after seeing the O’s win at-least 81 games each of the past four seasons, and reach the post-season twice; I’m surprised to see dire predictions for this coming year.

ESPN’s Keith Law was quoted yesterday as stating that Baltimore was the lone clear non-contender in the East.  Sports Illustrated’s Jay Jaffe recently predicted the O’s to win 69 games. Both Law, and Jaffe are recognized as among the best analysts in the game, and their opinions should certainly be listened to. I just don’t agree with their conclusions.

The clear answer to why people believe this is the season things collapse for the O’s, is that the rotation doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. The rotation was a weak link last year, and the best O’s starter in 2015 is currently a member of the Miami Marlins.

With Chen gone, it’s easy to look at this group and think things will only get worse this year.

For those that have that opinion, I get the rationale. However, Baltimore’s starters had a combined ERA of 4.53 in 915.2 innings last year, and the O’s still managed to finish .500.

Is it possible that the O’s rotation will only be worse in ’16? Sure, it’s possible.
It’s also possible that the O’s rotation improves, or at the minimum; isn’t any worse.

There is no escaping the bottom-line that the O’s need Kevin Gausman to take a leap this year. As he is starting the year on the DL, some will think the shoulder tendonitis he had this Spring is a precursor of things to come. As he figures to make his first start of the year April 10th, and by his own words ‘feels fine’, I’m going to go with the idea that he will be regularly available. That the primary question with Gausman in ’16 will be his level of his performance, vs. availability. In-terms of his performance, I have no worries about Gausman’s floor. It’s all about how close he comes to reaching his ceiling. My BSL Colleague Brandon Warne provided a deeper look at Gausman here.

The Orioles Opening Day starter will be Chris Tillman. As Tillman takes the mound, many will snicker about Tillman not being worthy of the honor. How that with Tillman being the de facto leader of the staff, that is indicative of the questions the O’s rotation faces this year as a whole. That his stuff is mediocre.

 

If you want to spend the year comparing Tillman to other #1 starters, and make the obvious point that Tillman falls short; good for you I guess. The comparison to watch in my opinion, is Tillman to Tillman.

Are we going to see the Tillman of 2012-14, or the Tillman of 2015?

2012: 12GS, 9-3, 2.93 era, 86 ip, 66 hits, 28 er, 12 hr’s, 24 bb’s, 64 k’s
2013: 33GS, 16-7, 3.71 era, 206.1ip, 184 hits, 85 er, 33 hr’s, 68 bb’s, 179 k’s,
2014: 34GS, 13-6, 3.34 era, 207.1ip, 189 hits, 77 er, 21 hr’s, 66 bb’s, 150 k’s,
Total: 79 starts, 38-16, 3.43 era, 499.2 ip, 439 hits, 190 er, 66 hr’s, 158 bb’s, 393 k’s

2015 vs. Toronto: 6GS, 0-4, 11.72 era, 25.1 ip, 40 hits, 33 er, 10 hr’s, 11 bb’s, 15 k’s
2015 vs. everyone else: 25GS, 11-7, 3.85 era, 147.2 ip, 136 hits, 63 er, 10 hr’s, 53 bb’s, 105 k’s

GB%
2012: 34.5%
2013: 38.6%
2014: 40.6%
2015: 43.5%

OPS Against
2012: .639 OPS Against
2013: .730 OPS Against
2014: .671 OPS Against
2015: .763 OPS Against

K%
2012: 19%
2013: 21.2%
2014: 17.2%
2015: 16.2%

BB%
2012: 6.9%
2013: 8.1%
2014: 7.6%
2015: 8.6%

xFIP:
2012: 4.34
2013: 3.88
2014: 4.20
2015: 4.58

Pitch F/X Pitch Type:  Cutter %
2012: 13.1%
2013: 12.4%
2014: 10%
2015: 3.7%

Pitch F/X Pitch Type: 4seam %
2012: 48.2%
2013: 49.9%
2014: 52.4%
2015: 60.9%

When I look at Tillman’s numbers in 2015, and compare it what we saw from him in 2012-14; the things which stand out most to me are the usage change with his Cutter, and just how much Toronto owned him this past year. Those results against the Jays were not a fluke, they crushed him repeatedly.

I just don’t buy into the significance of that going forward.

Since 2012, you have a sample size of 110 starts overall. I think you go with that entirety to judge going forward. Those results factored in.

What happened vs. the Jays last year happened, and can’t be ignored. While he’s going to have to face them again, I just expect the results vs. them will be better. Frankly, even if they are not good; they pretty much have to be.

In any event, if Tillman isn’t regularly giving the O’s a chance to win; the O’s won’t overcome that. Overall, I’m anticipating a 2016 season which looks similar to the 25 starts he had against teams not named Toronto in 2015.

2016 Projection: 32 starts, 3.88 era, 202 innings, 87 er, 26 hr’s, 64 bb’s, 160 k’s
For further discussion on Tillman, check out the profile from my BSL Colleague Paul Sporer here.

For me individually, and BSL as a site; there was not a lot of enthusiasm to be found about the Orioles addition of Yovani Gallardo.

The one thing I liked about his addition, was that I was more inclined to believe the O’s rotation would not completely flame out with him. Adding Gallardo, meant that guys like Worley, Despaigne, Wright, and Wilson were each moved down a spot. The overall depth was improved.

If you look at Gallardo’s peripherals, there is plenty of reason for pause. Plenty of reason to have concern. The flip side of that is Gallardo has had at-least 30 starts, and 180 innings in seven consecutive seasons. All I’m hoping for Gallardo in ’16 is that he extends that run of starts and innings to an eighth straight season – even with the expectation that his ERA will look closer to his 2015 xFIP (4.31) vs. his 2015 ERA (3.42).

Ubaldo Jimenez is going into his third season as an Oriole. 2014 was a disaster. 2015 was an improvement. After ’14, I thought there was a chance he would rebound some in ’15, because his BB% was considerably above his career norms. To be consistent, I have some concern of regression from Jimenez in ’16, because his BB% was significantly below those same career norms. 

Overall, mentioning Jimenez and consistency together is funny. His mechanics were simplified last year and improved. If he can maintain that, maybe that ’15 BB% can be sustained. Still, his first 54 starts with the Orioles have shown somebody that you aren’t sure what you are going to get inning-to-inning, let alone game-to-game.

If you look at him solely through the context of being a 4th starter, there is value here though. Most importantly, he is typically durable. His 22 starts, and 125.1 innings in ’14 was the aberration. In ’12, he threw 176.2 innings over 31 starts. In ’13, he threw 182.2 innings over 32 starts. In ’15, 184 innings over 32 starts.

There will be plenty of times he frustrates, but if he generally keeps the O’s in games, and racks up another 180 innings this year – he will have done his job.

When the 2015 season ended, I had written about wanting to add a couple of starters, and have the ability to utilize Miguel Gonzalez out of the bullpen. That wasn’t me hating on Gonzalez. I had thought that if you could enter ’16 with Gonzalez as the 6th starter, he would likely still get plenty of starts during the year. That having him around as rotation depth would be a good thing. I also thought if you could limit his starts and innings in the beginning of the year, that you might have a better chance of Gonzalez being stronger at year end. The last three years, he’s started 28, 26, and 26 games. In those years he’s thrown 171.1, 159, and 144.2 innings. You can’t go into this season expecting 30 starts and 185 innings.

He’s another O’s starter that has previously out-pitched his peripherals. He’s had his moments where he has looked like a very competent starter. Last year we saw a guy that dealt with injuries, and never looked right when he was healthy enough to take the ball. This Spring we’ve seen him really struggle.

MASN’s Roch Kubatko wondered aloud today if Wright, and Wilson have passed Gonzalez in the rotation depth chart. I’m one that typically doesn’t care much at all about Spring Training, but if Gonzalez is roughed up again tonight; you have to wonder if Orioles Executive Vice President Dan Duquette and Manager Buck Showalter will decide it makes more sense to have Gonzalez begin the year in the bullpen. I hope that would be the alternative vs. releasing him, as I think Gonzalez could be a welcomed rotation option at some point, even if he is not ready to start right now.

The Orioles rotation is not going to be good, but it is perfectly reasonable to think Gausman can emerge, that Tillman can rebound, and that Gallardo and Jimenez will continue to be durable starters who provide innings and give the O’s a chance. If those four don’t give you 750ish competitive innings, then the dire predictions of some might be proven correct.

Some Other Random O’s Thoughts:

1) I’m excited about Dylan Bundy being part of the O’s bullpen. Many at the BSL Board believed going into Spring Training that the O’s would ‘find’ an injury with Bundy, to help alleviate a potential roster crunch. That doesn’t appear like it is going to happen. He’s pitched well. I said all Winter, if he is on the roster, it will be interesting to see how he is utilized out of the bullpen. Showalter always does a good job of not getting relievers up multiple times, and trying to avoid usage on back-to-back days. My sense is that we see Showalter use Bundy in low-leverage situations to begin the year. With performance, he should have the opportunity to face tougher spots as the season progresses. I love what Bundy, and Mychal Givens (link is to a profile from BSL Colleague Reggie Yinger) have the chance to give the O’s pen this year. As long as the rotation is providing innings, the bullpen can be elite. What I don’t want to hear with Bundy, is discussion about him joining the rotation. He had just over 105 combined innings in ’12. Missed ’13. 40 some innings in ’14. 25 some innings in ’15.  To me, 75 innings is the max I can envision him pitching this year. If you get to September, and are in position to stretch him out a little at that time – okay. Other than that, let’s just enjoy seeing him on a mound in an O’s uniform, even if it is as a reliever.

2) JJ Hardy is vital to the O’s. It’s been nice to see him turn on the ball with some power this Spring. If his shoulder and back issues stay away, a rebound to his 2014 numbers should be expected. Last year, he had zero torque through his hips, and was intentionally solely trying to slap balls to right.  He lacked the ability to turn on balls. If that ability is back, he adds further depth to the lineup. While he was a wreck at the plate in ’15, what remained impressive was his ability to play a high level SS. Would be great to see the pop return, and see his slugging numbers rebound, but the only number I’m really watching for Hardy is games played. He was only able to suit up 114 times in ’15. You know the O’s rotation is hoping he has 145+ games in him this year.

3) I was more comfortable with Mark Trumbo in RF, with the expectation that Joey Rickard would be available as a defensive replacement in close and late situations. If Rickard is going to be starting in LF, than I continue to believe it makes sense for Trumbo to be the 1st baseman (where the defensive metrics have continually liked him over 3,000 career innings), and Chris Davis to be in right. Davis has the arm, and athleticism to be at-least average in right. My opinion was not asked for though, and Trumbo is the RF, and Davis is the 1st baseman as the year begins. Trumbo’s performance out there will dictate if he stays. He doesn’t have to be great. He has to show he isn’t a liability.

4) If Rickard is the starting LF, it’s because the O’s decided this Spring that their Winter investment in Hyun Soo-Kim wasn’t going to work. At-least to begin the year. Count me as one that hopes that if the O’s ask, Kim gives the team permission to send him to the Minors. The transition for Kim is huge. Culturally. Better competition. Not just with the starters he would face, but specialty relievers. Additional travel. A longer season.  If you could retain him in the system, and get a longer look – I think that would be ideal. He has 4,000 ab’s in the KBO (said to be the equivalent of AA) that gives indication he has some skills with the bat. I’d like to see that bat get a chance to produce at Norfolk, and at-least give the O’s another option. I don’t have much confidence in his ability to be a good defensive OF (despite the multiple Gold Gloves he won in the KBO), because he’s said to have a weak ish arm, and mediocre range. So, any value he could provide, would remained tied to his bat. If he could be a .750 ish OPS guy, with a little pop, and some on-base skills, that has value even if he is below average with the glove. Now, if you think he can’t adjust to higher velocity, and better stuff of MLB; then that is what it is. If that is the case,what was the evaluation process in signing him in the first place, if you can make the determination over 50 +/- Spring Training ab’s that he can’t compete here?

5) When the O’s obtained Gallardo, and appeared to be on the verge of obtaining Dexter Fowler, BSL Colleague Rob Shields compared the O’s to the rest of the AL East here.  Above we noted how Law said the O’s are the clear lone non-contender in the Division. I don’t see it. I see 5 teams with differing issues. Some team could emerge. What I think is more likely is parity. What would surprise me is the O’s not having a chance to compete.

I like Tampa Bay’s rotation, but I don’t love their everyday lineup.

The Yankees bullpen is ridiculous, but then you look at the age of their regulars.

Price improves Boston, and it’s reasonable to think the rotation could be good. They also have a number of younger players who could emerge. It’s also question of what they will get from not just that youth, but several veterans they need to rebound.

Toronto’s power is legitimate. They were mostly fortunate health wise in ’15. Will that happen again?

Wouldn’t shock me if any one of the 5 East teams won the Division.

Going back to our Media Survey, we had polled 30 writers and analysts across the game about the 2016 O’s.

We mentioned Law, and Jaffe above. Jaffe actually participated in the survey, and presumably was part of the 50% who expected the O’s to win under 80 games. Had I participated in the poll, I would have been part of the 40% who expect the O’s to win 81-85 games. 

If you are in that range, not a whole lot has to go right to play-up and win the 89-92 likely necessary to be in position for a Wild Card birth. It’s cliche, but avoid digging a hole early, and hold your own against the Division. Baltimore has 11 games vs. the East in April.

It’s an opportunity either way.

It’s been a long Winter. Spring and the season is here.

What will the 2016 Orioles be?  They get to determine that on the field.

If you have written them off before the first pitch of Opening Day, I think that has a chance to look foolish come the Fall.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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