Pac 12 Tournament:
Location: T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
Dates: March 8th-11th
Defending Champ: Oregon
Tournament bracket: Bracket
(You can discuss the Pac 12 Tournament and all of College Basketball on the BSL Board here.)
Oregon enters as the 1 seed but both Oregon and Arizona finished with 16-2 conference records and UCLA finished with a 15-3 record. All 3 teams are ranked in the top 7 in the AP Poll. Kenpom has UCLA 16, Oregon 17 and Arizona 21. Arizona and UCLA won on the other team’s home court. Oregon beat Arizona by 27 at home. Oregon and UCLA split, each winning at home in very close games. I think Oregon has to be considered the favorite because they got the 1 seed. Assuming all 3 teams advance after their first game, Oregon only has to beat one of those teams to win the tournament, whereas UCLA and Arizona play each other and then would likely have to beat Oregon. Its far more likely that Oregon makes the final game because they have the easier path.
A big storyline to consider here is seeding for the NCAA tournament. The winner of this tournament is definitely the 2 seed out West and could get the 1 seed if Gonzaga loses in their tournament or the committee just decides to reward one of these teams for winning with the tougher schedule. With Gonzaga already having a win over Arizona on a neutral court, it may be tough to put them in over the Zags but UCLA or Oregon might have a chance. If UCLA beats USC, Arizona and Oregon, that will make the decision pretty tough for the committee. The likeliest scenario is the 2 seed out west. I do think there is a chance for the Pac 12 to get 2 #2 seeds though. In ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology, he has Louisville and Baylor as 2 seeds. Those 2 teams will have tough games in their tournament and if they lose early, they could be in danger of falling to a 3.
Speaking of Lunardi, he has 4 in from the Pac 12 with USC being one of his last teams in. USC must beat Washington to have any chance. Washington has been terrible this year and Markelle Fultz, the projected #1 pick in the draft, has been hurt as of late. If he plays, USC has to be careful that he doesn’t win the game by himself but I don’t think USC is safe unless they also beat UCLA. A win over Washington keeps them in the discussion but they could still get knocked off the bubble depending on what happens elsewhere. However, if they beat UCLA, they are definitely in. The sleeper team in this is California. They are an excellent defensive team that has a chance to get to the semis. Raab is a legit NBA talent and they have a chance to make some noise. They are in Lunardi’s next 4 out, so they have something to play for. If they are able to get by Oregon, that may get them in.
I am taking Oregon to win because of the idea of having the easier path. I think they play UCLA and end up being able to make a few more plays down the stretch, in large part because they will have had an easier time to get to the finals.
Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight