The All-Star break is basically a month from now. (July 13th – 16th)
Baltimore is currently 25-34, with these 29 games remaining:
June 11th vs Seattle (1)
June 12th – 14th vs Atlanta (3)
June 16th – 18th vs NYM (3)
June 19th – 21st @ Philly (3)
June 23rd – 25th @ Florida (3)
June 26th – 28th vs DC (3)
June 29th – 30th vs Boston (2)
July 1st vs Boston (1)
July 2nd – 5th @ LAA (4)
July 6th – 8th @ Seattle (3)
July 10th – 12th vs Toronto (3)
The O’s are 17-14 at home (.548) and 8-20 on the road (.285)
If the O’s were to maintain their current home and away pace during this stretch:
16 home games * .548 = 9 wins, 7 losses
13 road games * .285 = 4 wins, 9 losses
They would be 13-16 in these 29 games, giving them a 38-50 record at the All-Star Break.
The best record I can see being obtained in this stretch is 17-12, which would leave the O’s with a 42-46 record at the All-Star Break. It would take an extremely strong-run of 19-10 to get back to .500.
I like this team, and believe they are capable of a prolonged stretch of positive play.
However, I think the roster needs to be compiled in such a way, that allows this group to maximize their potential. I said earlier today that I believe Hernandez needs to remain part of the roster, and that I would release Hendrickson.
Starting today, that would give a roster of:
Guthrie, Uehara, Hill, Bergesen, Berken
Sherrill
Johnson
Albers
Baez
Castillo
Hernandez
Bass
Roberts 2nd
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Huff 1st
Reimold LF
Scott DH
Mora 3rd
Wieters C
Andino SS
Zaun, Wigginton, Pie, Salazar
There is no reason why that team can not put some wins together. Those starters each have some limitations, but each is capable of keeping you in games.
Hernandez added to that bullpen, gives that group a shot in the arm, and some needed depth.
The lineup has been cold, but that will not continue. There is too much talent 1-8 for that to continue. If anything, they are due to breakout a bit. That bench can contribute, and will need to in National League stadiums.
You have a strong bit of play during this next month, and then things will be sorted out at the 7/31 deadline. If Sherrill is not going to be traded, I promote Ray as soon as possible and send down Castillo.
Sherrill can close in the Majors, but I think for this team he is better served being the set-up or situational lefty. You let Ray get another opportunity at closing, and keep building Hernandez up.
I understand that 2009 is not about wins and losses… that it is about the development of the players that can comprise the future core.
The flip side is there are enough of those players, who can be part of the O’s future currently on the roster; that it is time to win some games. We are in the American League East, and we are not in position to currently contend, but this is still the best 25 man roster we have seen in years.
It would be unacceptable for this group to roll over and die.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.