With two wins, the Baltimore Ravens will be in Indianapolis February 5th for Super Bowl 46. With that in-mind, here are 46 Ravens related observations, questions, and thoughts.

1) After the bye, the Ravens will start their post-season January 15th against Houston, Pittsburgh, or Denver. If the Texans win their game, it will be them. If the Bengals win, it will be the Steelers / Broncos winner. By game-time on the 15th, every Ravens fan in this City will be saying (and have heard) the same thing. Baltimore has to run the ball. Houston is 4th against the run, Pittsburgh is 8th against the run, and Denver is 22nd against the run.

If Denver pulls the upset against the Steelers, Baltimore will crush the Broncos. I’m not expecting to see Tebow in Charm City. though. Pittsburgh should win easily, even without Mendenhall, and Clark. The Texans might not get past the Bengals, but they have a lot of talent, even with Schaub and Williams on the shelf. Despite their three consecutive losses going into the playoffs, I can see Houston putting things together against Cincinnati.

So, assuming the Ravens play either Houston or Pittsburgh; the Ravens are going to face a good run-defense who has already played in Baltimore this year. Should Baltimore come out trying to throw the ball (to open up the run) against these teams, or should the Ravens commit right from the beginning to making these teams show they can stop the run?

2) For the 3rd consecutive year, Flacco threw for over 3,600 yards with 20+ TD’s, and 12 or less INT’s. For the first time in his career, his completion percentage was under 60%. He has more wins than any QB ever in his first 4 years. After winning 4 road playoff games in his first 3 years, will he add a home victory to that total this year?

3) Dickson and Pitta combined for 94 receptions, 933 yards, 58 1st downs, and 8 TD’s this year. These two can be difference makers in the playoffs.

4) Leach came into this year having had 3 carries in 92 career games. This year, he had 12 carries in the 16 games. On those 12 carries he averaged just 2.2 yards per carry, had 0 TD’s, and only 3 1st downs. He is a better ‘weapon’ as a receiver (15 grabs, 69 yards). If the Ravens want a bigger back to pound on short-yardage, it should be Williams.

5) Despite all the enthusiasm I saw from defensive players ab0ut the promotion of Chuck Pagano, going into this year I was a bit apprehensive of a first-time NFL Defensive Coordinator taking over the reigns of a Super Bowl caliber team. Clearly my apprehension was unfounded as the Ravens Defense had a great year. Pittsburgh’s Lebeau has such an extensive Coaching history, it is hard to make a comparison. However, I think it is fair to say that if you went into this year believing the Steelers had a tremendous advantage at Defensive Coordinator, that this year ends with that gap having been closed significantly.

6) What happens with Cam Cameron after this post-season? While he has not yet reached Matt Cavanaugh whipping boy standards, it is hard to find a lot of Cameron supporters. If the Ravens lose in the Divisional round, I imagine Cameron will not be back for next year. If the Ravens advance to at-least the AFC Championship, it seems likely to me that he returns.

7) How about the play of Pernell McPhee (6 sacks), and Paul Kruger (5.5 sacks) this year? Their ability to get after the QB on 3rd down has made a tremendous difference. Redding is finishing the 2nd year of his 2 year deal and his play was much improved over what we saw in 2010. Would you want Redding back for next year? Do you want McPhee to be in position to start?

8) If my apprehension about Pagano was unfounded, my expectations on Kindle were painfully wrong. I did not expect Kindle to play on non-passing downs, but I thought Kindle would be utilized as a pass-rusher this year. It became clear fairly early that Kindle was not quite ready for that. Also, as McPhee and Kruger excelled, the need for Kindle decreased. It was good to see Harbaugh say in mid-December that Kindle had improved his understanding and was ready to play more and more. Perhaps after another off-season of work, mini camps, and training camp; we see the player that many believed to be a Rookie of the Year candidate going into last year emerge.

9) Baltimore finished 2nd in the league against the run (5th in 2010), despite allowing 145 yards against SD, 117 yards against Cleveland, and 105 yards against the Bengals the past 3 weeks. Do you see any vulnerability here? If so, do you expect it to be corrected with fresh legs out of the bye?

10) Are you worried about Boldin? I’m not. By all reports he is running and cutting fine. According to MASN, Boldin is quoted today as saying he is ‘full-go.’ Perhaps the torn meniscus was a blessing in digusise? The additional going into the playoffs might do him well. Did you know that in Boldin’s 30 regular season games with the Ravens, he has caught at-least 7 passes in 7 different games? Did you know that Boldin has only gone over 100 yards in 5 of those 30 games?

11) The Ravens enter the playoffs winners of 6 of their last 7, and 8 of 10. Baltimore is 7-2 against Peter King’s ‘Fine Fifteen’, including 3-0 against King’s 3rd and 5th ranked teams. New England was 1-2 against playoff teams.

12) Leach obviously helped the running attack, but the offensive line deserves credit as well. After averaging 4.0 yards per carry last season, Rice averaged 4.7 ypc in ’11. Additionally, the pass protection was better as Flacco was sacked just 31 times in ’11, after being sacked an average of 38 times in ’09, and ’10. I wondered before the season if Birk would last the year, but he has remained productive. I expected Oher to be a bit more dominating at RT (and less penalty prone), but part of the criticism he gets is because the expected bar is higher. I was a bit surprised that Yanda played in the final, but since he did play, he only figures to be better after the bye. I thought Yanda was overrated at RT, but he has been awesome at RG. It will be interesting to see if McKinnie is back next season, and if the Ravens want to move Oher back to the other side, while finding time for Reid at RT.

13) Flacco was on ESPN’s Mike & Mike yesterday morning, and Golic insinuated the Ravens window was ‘closing.’ I thought Flacco was correct in stating that the window for several players on the team was ending, but that as an organization there was a lot of youth to build around.

14) The Ravens were 11th overall in time of possession. Houston and Pittsburgh were ranked 1st, and 2nd.

15) In terms of yardage, the Ravens were the 4th least penalized offense.

16) Baltimore converted 97 of 229 third-downs (42%), good for 7th overall. On Defense, the Ravens were 2nd overall in third-down conversion, as opponents converted just 71 of 221 (32%) attempts.

17) It has been reported that three teams have asked for permission to end DeCosta. Most of the analysts around town, do not seem to believe DeCosta is going anywhere. If DeCosta does leave, the Ravens have internal options (Hortiz, V. Newsome, Kokinis) to replace him. Here is a question, let’s say DeCosta did leave, and was replaced by Hortiz or V.Newsome. Would Kokinis (with his prior GM experience) become the internal favorite to ever place O. Newsome, if Newsome were to leave the organization?

18) Cundiff was back for Week 16, and hit his single FG attempt from 42 yards out. For the year he finished 28 of 37, including 8 of 15 from over 40 yards. (7 of 9 from 40-49, and 1 of 6 from 50+.) Outside of a possible game winner, would you let him kick from beyond 45 yards?

19) This will be the 7th playoff appearance for the Ravens, and 4th consecutive. The 2011 Ravens had a positive point differential of 112. This was the 5th highest differential in team history. 2000: 168 points, ’06: 152 points, ’08: 141 points, ’09: 130 points.

20) If you told me that the Ravens would definitively advance to the Super Bowl, I’d prefer to face Pittsburgh, and New England to get there; and Green Bay once there. That would be the hardest road possible, but to me also the most rewarding if the Ravens were able to hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the 2nd time.

21) Harbaugh has gone to playoffs in each of his 4 years as Coach, and is now 44-20 for his career in the regular season, and 4-3 in the post-season. Should the Ravens win the Super Bowl, I believe he will be universally viewed as ‘elite.’

22) Conversely, should the Ravens go out in the Divisional round (and particularly if they were to lose to Pittsburgh) will Harbaugh start to be looked at as a Marty Schottenheimer clone?

23) When the pre-season ended, the conventional wisdom around town was that the productive rookie WR was going to be Tandon Doss. There were lots of stories written about Doss being an exceptional route runner with good hands. It is pretty surprising that Doss went the entire year without recording a catch. It is also surprising that after all the success Doss had in College as a KR, that we have not seen used at all in that capacity.

24) Evans had just 4 catches on the year, and only 2 after he returned from injury. Considering that Boldin was out the past two weeks, it is too bad that Evans was not able to get involved with the offense. I had visions of the Ravens utilizing Evans and Smith together on go routes from one side of the field.

25) Before the first game, if you had been told that the Ravens would get nothing out of Evans and Doss – would you have believed the Ravens would finish as they did? I thought people were way over the top in their negativity of Smith in the Pre-season, and thought he still had a chance to impact games as a deep receiver in single coverage down the field. I knew Smith would continue to work hard. I’ve been surprised by how much and how quickly Smith has improved (still considerable improvement needed) underneath. Smith finished the year with 50 catches, 841 yards, and 7 TD’s. He averaged 16.8 YPC, and 5 YAC. Teams want to load the box to combat Rice, well they run the risk of Smith running by them in single coverage. Looking forward to this post-season for Smith, and really looking forward to next Summer for the WR. After going through this year, and getting the off-season to improve, he might be unstoppable in ’12.

26) Is anyone going to try and run the ball at the Ravens? What is the point, it is not going to happen. Baltimore has been taking away the opposing running game, and making the opposition one dimensional for over a decade. If Pittsburgh had Mendenhall, I could see the Steelers giving him some carries to try and keep the Ravens pass rush honest. Without Mendenhall, I would imagine Pittsburgh would give up any hope of running against Baltimore with Redman or Dwyer. That of course will allow the Baltimore Front 7 to pin their ears back and get after Roethlisberger. If the Ravens play Houston, the Texans have to get the ball to Foster, but will it be on the ground? Probably not. In the Houston / Baltimore game earlier this season, Foster had 15 carries for 49 yards. He did better work as a receiver, with 6 catches for 52 yards. Foster did have 7 games with 100+ yards as a rusher, so they won’t abandon the run completely. His 3 games with 100+ yards as a receiver is a bigger concern to me though.

If the Ravens face New England in the AFC Championship, we are looking at the same thing. The ‘Law Firm’ BenJarvus Green-Ellis, ran for 667 yards this year. He only averaged 3.7 yards per carry. In the 5 Patriots games from December 4th to January 1st, Green-Ellis had a total 31 carries. The Patriots running game is a complete non-issue. A Baltimore / NE game will be Brady making quick hits to Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Welker. Luckily, neither Branch or Ochocinco scare you on the outside. Dealing with the TE’s will be a problem though. It is another game where you have to get pressure, and be in Brady’s face.

If the Ravens get to the Super Bowl, they figure to face GB or New Orleans. With the Patriots, the Packers and Saints comprise the top 3 offenses in the game. Each are among the top 3 in passing offense. Only the Saints are also in the top 10 in rushing offense, but New Orleans has had to place Ingram on IR before the playoffs begin.

My point is this. It is quite possible that every game in this post-season is the same for the Ravens. An opponent that does not even attempt to run, while spreading Baltimore out, and attacking in the air. For Baltimore to win those games, the Ravens will have to A) Get consistent pressure, B) Score points (and control clock) on offense, and C) Win the turnover battle.

Sounds simple enough, how confident are you in the Ravens being able to do that against those teams?

27) Jimmy Smith missed some game experience with injury to start the year, and that probably has limited his progress a bit. The good thing is that he is probably fresher than he otherwise would have been. Prior to the Chargers game, you could see him getting more confident each week, and becoming more of a play maker. Against all of those spread passing games, he is kind of a wild card for the Ravens defense. He was drafted because he has the physical skills to be a shut-down corner. He is probably asked to play a lot of man coverage in the next few weeks. Is he ready to win those battles?

28) I liked the corner depth (Webb, Williams, Smith, Carr) to begin the year, and like it now as well. I had confidence in that group, but my optimism was also tied to the idea that I believed the Ravens would get more pressure up-front. That is exactly what has happened. Webb had an outstanding year. Williams was solid most weeks. Carr ended ’11, getting closer to what we saw out of him in ’10. If the Ravens get pressure, this group will be fine. If there is no pressure, they will be exposed (just like any other Secondary would).

29) If the play of Jimmy Smith is a wild card for the Ravens defense, the ultimate x-factor remains Ed Reed. We’ve known for years that Reed is no longer the tackler he was early in his career. I for one, believe that is a good thing overall. While I miss him being sent after the QB as much as he once was, I like that Reed has learned how to avoid the big hit, and be able to stay on the field. It was not that long ago that Reed was openly mentioning retirement as an option. After coming off the PUP list year, he had 8 picks. This year he played in all 16 games. He only had 3 picks this year, which some have used as indication he was a non-factor. I think that is odd. Every Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, and QB that game plans for Baltimore knows they need to have an eye on Reed at all times. If teams are less likely to attack his part of the field, that still impacts games. Like Lewis, one of the things I’ve always respected about Reed is his level of preparation. Here is a bet that coming off the bye, that Reed raises his level of play once more.

30) Where does time go? It is hard to believe that Reed just finished his 10th regular season. Also hard to believe that Jarret Johnson just completed his 9th. Johnson was pretty banged-up last year. The numbers were not much different, but visually Johnson looked better. I imagine part of that was being in a more attack based-scheme from Pagano.

31) After playing in 13 games as Rookie in ’09, Ellerbe played in 11 games in ’10, and 9 games in ’11.

32) McClain has played in all 64 games of his 4 year career. This year he had 84 tackles (34 solo), 1 sack, and 1 pick. Will be interesting to see what happens with him contract wise this off-season.

33) Mt. Cody has been exactly the player he was billed as being. He eats up space, and moves athletically. He does not often push the pocket back. With his size, and lower body strength, he is not often moved. It was very rare to see RB’s attempt to run up the middle on the Ravens (though this did happen more in the last few weeks). Without the sacks, I’m not sure Cody will ever get a lot of recognition, but his presence directly helps Ngata and the LB’s make plays.

34) For the 5th time in his 6 year career, Ngata played in all 16 regular season games. For the 2nd straight year, he had at-least 63 tackles, and 5 sacks. He finished 2nd among DT’s with 5 passes batted down. Ngata has received plenty of recognition for his play (especially after signing the 5 year $61M deal), but on the Ravens defense, he can still be a bit of a ‘forgotten’ man when you hear analysts talking about Baltimore. To me, he is the most important player on the Baltimore defense. He is asked to do a lot, because he is capable of doing just about everything. While he always plays hard, I think there can be games where his impact does not match his talent. When Ngata dominates the line of scrimmage, the Ravens win. Teams start cheating with double and even triple teams to try and take him out of plays, and this opens up opportunities for Ngata’s teammates to make plays of their own.

35) If Suggs wins the Defensive Player of the Year award, he will be the 3rd active Raven to have won. Ngata is my most important Ravens Defensive Player, but Suggs deserves all the accolades he is currently receiving. Unlike many people, I was in favor of Suggs receiving the extension he signed in 2009. If you remember at the time, there was a lot of discussion in Baltimore that it would be better to part ways with the Arizona State product. The Ravens do not have the bye this year, without his play. 14 sacks, 70 tackles, 2 picks, 7 forced fumbles. Suggs was a monster many weeks.

36) It is not a coincidence that in the Ravens 4 losses, Suggs was held to just 1 sack. Just like opposing defenses are going to key on limiting Rice’s impact, opposing offenses are going to give additional attention to Suggs. If Suggs is not getting to QB’s, Baltimore is going to have to bring pressure from all angles. That gamble might leave Baltimore vulnerable to big plays, but the Ravens will not be able to afford just dropping back into coverage.

37) Has Rice eclipsed Lewis as the best RB in franchise history? I was a huge Jamal Lewis fan, but I’d lean towards saying yes.

38) I think Ja. Lewis, and Heap deserve space in the Ravens Ring of Honor. Obviously Ray Lewis, and Reed will be there one day. Suggs, Ngata, Rice, and Flacco all probably will be as well.

39) Will there be enough dollars to go around, to give Ben Grubbs an extension this off-season? How much money does he command?

40) The Ravens were 11-0 this year when having a lead at half-time. The last time Baltimore lost a game when leading at half-time was the Divisional Playoff loss last year at Pittsburgh.

41) Zbikowski has suffered two concussions this year. He has to do what he can to protect himself long-term. His boxing career should be over.

42) Tandon Doss was a KR star at Indiana. If Zbikowski is not ready to return kicks 1/15, I’d rather see Doss have that responsibility than asking Webb, or Smith to assume that responsibility. I think that is a lot to ask of Webb, especially with what will be asked of him to provide in coverage. Smith was a monster in the KR game at Maryland, but he is this offense’s big play threat down the field. I’m not excited about putting him in a position that increases his risk of injury.

43) Every stadium in the country plays Seven Nation Army. Pick another song.

44) Denver and Pittsburgh tied for 9th in the league, with 42 sacks allowed.  Green Bay allowed 41. New England allowed 34. Houston and Baltimore were tied for 20th, with 33 sacks allowed. New Orleans allowed 24, tied for 2nd best.

45) Until the toe injury occurred, Lewis was still playing at an extremely high level this year. I agree that his pass coverage is not what it once was, and he might have a lot of trouble against the New England TE’s, but anyone writing off Ray does so at their own peril. The bye will help. You know he will be prepared. Lewis said before the season began, that he would retire if the Ravens won the Super Bowl. If that is accurate, there could be just 3 games left in his storied career.

46) I expect the Ravens to finish this post season with their 2nd Super Bowl title. If you go position unit, by position unit; Baltimore matches up with anyone. Some of the spread attacks the Ravens could face, will be a challenge. They are not exactly ideal match-ups. However, Baltimore beat Pittsburgh twice this year for a reason. The Ravens are a better team. Pittsburgh is also banged up right now, and if the Ravens face them for a 3rd time, Baltimore has to be the favorite as the rested home team. I’ll always respect Brady and Belichick, but I don’t fear the Patriots. New England might put some points on the Ravens, but Baltimore will score against that defense. New England might be motivated to avenge that home post-season loss from two years ago, but the Ravens that were in that game will not be afraid of going to Foxboro.

There are number of teams that could win the NFC, but Green Bay probably gets the opportunity to defend their title. If the Super Bowl is a Baltimore / Green Bay match-up, the Packers will rightfully be a 4 to 6 point favorite. The Packers have scored against everyone, and I’m sure they would have some success against the Ravens. They are not going to go up and down the field as if they are playing in the Arena League against Baltimore. Just like New England, the Packers have a defense that will be scored on. Baltimore does enough on offense to win.

Baltimore 28 Green Bay 24.

Note: What do you agree with? What do you disagree with? Tell me at the BSL Message Board (https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/forum).

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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