Baltimore Sports and Life has again reached out to Writers/Analysts throughout the country for their thoughts on the Baltimore Orioles.

Baltimore Sports and Life thanks each of the following analysts for taking the time to provide their thoughts:

Gary Armida, Full Count Pitch
http://fullcountpitch.com/
http://twitter.com/#!/GaryArmidaFCP

Dave Gershman, Beyond The Boxscore (Podcast Host)
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/section/btb-podcast
http://twitter.com/#!/Dave_Gershman

Jonathan Mitchell, MLB Dirt / Figure Filbert
http://mlbdirt.com/
http://figurefilbert.wordpress.com/
http://twitter.com/#!/FigureFilbert

JD Sussman, Bullpen Banter.com / Beyond The Boxscore
http://bullpenbanter.com/
http://www.sbnation.com/users/JD%20Sussman/blog
http://twitter.com/#!/JDSussman

Baltimore Sports and Life: “It does not appear that Justin Duchscherer will be physically ready to join the Orioles Opening Day rotation. This means the most logical candidates to be the O’s 5th starter are Chris Tillman and Zach Britton. Britton has yet to make his Major League debut but with his hard sinker and high ground-ball rates, many believe his ceiling is ultimately higher than Tillman’s. If the O’s think Britton is ready for the bigs (and ahead of Tillman) should they be willing to start his arbitration clock now?”

Armida: “There are two answers to this. If you are asking Buck Showalter, he’ll want the best pitcher and that looks to be Britton. The ideal would be for teams to make decisions based strictly on talent. But, they can’t. Britton has to go down for a month or so to save that arbitration year. It’s the business end of the equation and with the Orioles not really ready to compete, having Britton under control for an extra year makes sense. Most importantly, I really think you give Chris Tillman the first shot.”

Gershman: “I think it would be best to start Tillman instead of Britton. Obviously as you said, the service time factor suggests the Orioles would benefit the most by starting Britton in the minors, but simply the fact that Chris Tillman has potential, which he’s always had. Zach Britton has probably been Major League ready for a while now, but there’s no need to rush him, especially since they have someone like Tillman who could potentially be a solid starter or at least a good 5th starter.”

Mitchell: “I would wait on Britton until about mid-May or so. I do believe his ceiling is higher than Tillman’s but the extra exposure in AAA will only help him develop and also help avoid him reaching “Super-Two” status. No need to rush him when 2011 may be the deepest the AL East has ever been.”

Sussman: “Absolutely not. While I strongly believe the current arbitration system will be overhauled in the next collective bargaining agreement to prevent this type of service tie manipulation, the Orioles have no reason not to take advantage the loophole, at this point. The future is bright, but they aren’t going to win division in 2011, right? It would be hard to rationally justify the decision to have him appear for two months additional this year, instead of having an additional year of him closer to his prime.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Looking further at Tillman, he put up the following numbers the past two years:

AAA ’09-’10 combined: 19-13, 3.07 era, 217 ip, 205 hits, 74 er, 15 hr, 56 bb’s, 193 k’s
MLB ’09-’10 combined: 4-10, 5.63 era, 118 ip, 128 hits, 74 er, 24 hr, 55 bb’s, 70 k’s

Last 5 AAA starts 2010: 3-0, 2.17 era, 29 ip, 29 hits, 7 er, 1 hr, 6 walks, 25 k’s.
Last 5 MLB starts (Sept/Oct) 2010: 1-1, 4.15 era, 28.2 ip, 17 hits, 13 er, 6 hr, 18 walks, 19 k’s.

No matter where Tillman is pitching, he is going to have to continue to work on his cutter and 2 seam fastball. If he is at the AAA level, he figures to overwhelm the competition. His walk-rate at AAA looks good, presumably because he is able to get hitters to expand their zone easier than he is at the bigs. I think he needs extended innings and experience in the Majors. In 2011, I’d love his chances to be a league average 5th starter and give the Orioles 170-185 innings at a 4.75 era. What are your present thoughts on Tillman, and what do you think the future holds for him?”

Armida: “I’m high on Tillman. I have been since the day the Orioles acquired him. I’d give him the ball every fifth day and see what you have. He’s done all there is to do at AAA. There is something to learning how to get outs at the Major League level. It’s his time. He’ll have his rough moments, especially pitching in the East, but he has the talent to be slightly better than league average this year. I’ve seen Tillman pitch a couple of times and I see good stuff from a pitcher who doesn’t focus on every pitch. His stuff isn’t that good to do that. He has to learn in the Bigs. Sink or swim with him.”

Gershman: “I think your projections are accurate, although injuries haven’t been the biggest problem — he’s been able to stay healthy, he just hasn’t been consistent. So as he could probably pitch a decent amount of innings, sporting an ERA around 4.50 would be essential towards his success. Plus, an ERA even around 4.75 would be fine for a 5th starter, as long as he’s durable.”

Mitchell: “I think Tillman needs the exposure in the Bigs. He has over 200 innings in AAA but I do worry that his walk rates may never be better than average. He has never posted a rate 4.00 in minors except in AAA but that did not carry over with him to the Majors. I think he can be league average now and has the upside of a #3 but his drop in velocity worried me (fastball fell from 92 mph to 90.5 mph) and his command is definitely an issue. I still hold hope for him but it’s fading a bit with time.”

Sussman: “You hit the nail on the head with the comments about his fastball. Currently, the four seamer he employs is too straight (typical of the pitch though), but has lost some of the explosiveness that it had while he was a prospect. Either way, he’ll need to start focusing on getting more movement on his fastball, and developing a two seam and/or cut fastball is a good start. As for this year and the future, that’s a reasonable projection, but I wouldn’t be surprised if things clicked and he surpassed it by a healthy margin. His curveball is a true major league out pitch, so his future remains bright.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In an interview with Fox Sport’s Ken Rosenthal (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/baltimore-orioles-farm-system-lacking-022911), the Orioles President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail was asked about the minimal foreign talent in the system and he responded, “Philosophically, I’m not as committed to making the same commitments that we do in the (amateur) draft if it’s just going to be a workout. If you can’t see the guy play in a game, I think that is fraught with peril.” With Baltimore lacking the financial resources to go head-to-head for the top talent that hits the Free Agent market, is there any justification for the organization to have a lack of effort in International Scouting through design?”

Armida: “Simply, no. The Orioles have to uncover any talent possible. The Rays are doing that, as are a bunch of the small market teams. The Orioles are not a small market team and while no team can compete with the Yankees on the financial end, the Orioles have the capability of competing with everyone else. There is no reason in the year 2011 to not have a viable International Scouting Division. It is needed, especially with the game even more Global than ever. The Yankees got burned a couple of years ago with Kei Igawa. Brian Cashman admitted that there was a lack of scouting involved. I can see the logic with MacPhail’s assertion, but the only way to fix that is to bolster the scouting ranks there. The Yankees have addressed it. The Orioles need to as well.”

Gershman: “Not at all. They should be developing better and scouting better than they have. They have some nice pitchers and other prospects in the lower levels of the minors, but for now, they’ve got to spend a ton more internationally. Instead of signing a ton of seasoned vets this past off-season, that money could have gone towards development.”

Mitchell: “I think that’s more of a reason to have a better focus on international scouting. Teams not from New York or Boston need every slight advantage they can get and international scouting is an edge that they need. It’s not like it costs a ton either and it’s not like the NFL combine. It’s far more structured and the workouts are actually meaningful and game-appropriate.”

Sussman: “Sure. You have to remember that, as MacPhail says, these players when signed are showcase players, not baseball players. Outside of the big names, the tools they have are often unrefined. I could understand his preference to allocating money to the draft. Though, I certainly don’t agree with the approach.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In that same interview, MacPhail points out the large amount of signing bonuses the O’s have made since 2007 in the Amateur Draft. Part of that is the result of the O’s drafting high each of those years, and part of that is the O’s having targeted ‘over-slot’ picks during the respective drafts. The O’s Front Office has failed to gain (or protect) compensatory draft-picks in recent years. This is illustrated by the fact that during 2005-10 the O’s have had 17 picks during the first 3 rounds of the draft, while in that same period the Yankees have had 18, Tampa 21, Toronto 27, and Boston has had 30. This trend will continue in the 2011 draft. In interviews with Baltimore Sports and Life, the O’s Scouting Director Joe Jordan has confirmed the Orioles spent roughly $9M in each the two previous drafts. When asked if his budget for the ’11 draft was raised to $15M if there would be a corresponding change in draft strategy, Jordan responded by saying, “Now that would be fun! Overall philosophy wouldn’t change but I could definitely entertain a lot of scenarios.” Tying in the previous question, if the O’s are not going to invest significantly Internationally, should the Amateur budget be further increased, especially considering they have less high draft picks than their AL East peers?”

Armida: “The simple answer is yes. Investing in the draft is a wise move for any team that doesn’t want to invest in the free agent market. The problem is that even for the best evaluators of talent, the fruits of that investment take quite some time. Look at the Royals. They are still a year or two away from really seeing that best farm system in the game. So, that takes a ton of patience. The Rays have done the same thing. Even the Pirates are investing heavily into the draft. I’d like to see Andy MacPhail invest more, but at the same time, I have confidence based on his track record to select the right players.”

Gershman: “The amateur budget should certainly be increased — but not until they see what happens with the new CBA. The O’s had a good 2010 draft and it should be viewed as a stepping stone to upcoming drafts. Seeing as to how the Nationals, their neighbor fared extremely well going over-slot on many of their 2010 picks, it wouldn’t hurt the O’s to do the same in the future.”

Mitchell: “Absolutely. An extra $4M-$6M in the draft is the difference between taking Daniel Moskos and Matt Wieters. That amount spent in free agency may only net you a reliever or aging veteran. The Amateur Draft is the backbone to team’s faliures and success, not free agency. The draft helps teams like the Rays restock and retool every year and remain competitive and it also gives teams like Detroit the trade chips it needs to get Miguel Cabrera-type players. Ask the Red Sox if the draft is pivitol to their success, oh, and they have the 2nd highest payroll in the game. The O’s must invest heavily in amateur players if they are going to contend in the AL East.”

Sussman: “Should it be increased for this year? Absolutely. With the new CBA threatening a potential hard slotting system, if there was one year to try and take advantage of players’ willingness to sign, it would be in June 2011. From a philosophical roster building stand point, it doesn’t make sense to sign a Mike Gonzalez (or Derek Lee or Vlad Guerrero) instead of spending on the draft, but if ownership believes that those marginal wins and former starts are going to put people in the seats, then whom am I to argue.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Steven Goldman of Baseball Prospectus named Wieters as one of the Top 50 disappointing prospects of all time, specifically pointing to the total lack of production Wieters has shown from the right-hand side, along with the minimal power overall. Bill James is predicting a 2011 OPS of .809, Dan Szymborski says .751, and Marcel has him at .730. Do you agree with Goldman? What offensive-production are you predicting for Wieters?”

Armida: “I am definitely in the minority when it comes to Wieters. I believe he can still make good on his promise. The one thing that I believe people overlook is how hard it is to be a catcher in the Major Leagues. That is why Buster Posey deserves all of the accolades he is getting. To be able to manage a staff and hit is something rare. Wieters has a young staff and was really counted on as the only power threat. Managing a staff with three managers in one season is tough for any catcher, let alone a rookie. Although Wieters’ slash line of .249/.319/.377 was terrible, there were still positive signs. He increased his walk rate and decreased his strikeout rate. His contact rates were right around league average. He showed some signs in the second half, a time when catchers generally wear down. For this season, I can see a .280/.360/.450 season with 20 homeruns. I still like him to be a Jorge Posada type hitter. I wouldn’t write off a 25 year old catcher in just his second full year on the job.”

Gershman: “I disagree with Goldman’s evaluation there. Sure, Weiters has been disapointing so far, but many hitters and pitchers take time to adjust to the majors. Weiters is still young, under control, and has a world of potential. Don’t see why he should be in that boat as of yet.”

Mitchell: “That’s absurd to label him disappointing after less than 900 plate appearances at the Major League level, especially considering he has produced 4.1 fWAR over that time and been above-average at the position. An OPS above .800 is an ambitious prediciton. I oddly enough have him at .751 as well but his upside is well above .800 and my gut tells me he’ll be around .775 or so with 15+ homers. Wieters had some bad-luck last year but showed the patience of a veteran hitter at the plate.”

Sussman: “I was totally shocked to see Wieters on that list. I think we all agree that he has been disappointing, as some people were expecting a Mauer-like career, but he has been about league average in his two major league seasons. To me, it is far too early to call him a disappointment. I normally disregard the projections that Bill James puts out, and look to Dan Szymborski ZiPs. But, in this case, I don’t think BJ’s projection is that unlikely (outside of the inflated batting average on balls in play). We’ve seen Wieters increase his walk rate and decrease his strikeout rate in his two seasons. James is projecting that same trend to continue with a  moderate boost in power.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “I think the Orioles have the 2nd best Outfield (Markakis, Jones, Scott), and the 3rd best Infield (Wieters, Lee, Roberts, Hardy, Reynolds) in the AL East. Where do you rate them?”

Armida: “That’s a tough one. Markakis is a favorite of mine and give him the title of best right-fielder in the division over JD Drew and Nick Swisher. But, I still like the Yankees’ overall outfield of Gardner, Granderson, and Swisher. I’d rate the Red Sox second with Crawford, Ellsbury, and Drew. I think the Orioles slot 3 for the outfield, nudging out the Rays. With the infield, I think you are rating the Yankees and Red Sox over them, which I agree with completely. The question is whether or not they are better than the Rays’ infield of Zobrist/Damon/whoever, Rodriguez, Brigniac, and Longoria. That’s close. I can see you ranking them 3 for sure. I think I give the edge to the Rays because of Longoria and the expected emergence of Sean Rodriguez. I have too many health concerns about Lee and Roberts.”

Gershman: “Yeah, seems about right. I like the Orioles infield a lot. I think it has potential to be 2nd or even the best in the AL at some point this season.”

Mitchell: “I’d rank the outfield ahead of Toronto for sure and I’d place them at least even with New York, so 3rd is a fair assessment. The infield might rank 5th for me due to health concerns and age but that is not a knock on their infield because it is well above-average but more a realization at how deep the division is.”

Sussman: “Questions still remain about how Scott does in LF, after being the DH much of the past two years. The Red Sox’s outfield is easily first for me, then the Orioles, Yankees, and Rays are neck and next. Gun to my head, I’d probably take the Rays second as they have the most upside with Upton and Zobrist being capable of being superstars. I’d have them third on the infield too.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “After averaging 157 games during ’07-’09, Brian Roberts was limited to 59 games in 2010. If he has to again miss significant time in 2011, is Markakis the best candidate to replace Roberts at the top of the lineup?”

Armida: “He is, but it is not ideal. Markakis does a lot of things well. I still think he is their best hitter and best run producer. I’d hit him 3rd with Vlad and Reynolds behind him.”

Gershman: “To some prognosticators, yes. But I like Markakis in the #2 or #3 hole. I actually think Mark Reynolds would make some sense, seeing as to how he can only hit fastballs. With the strength and power in the middle of the Orioles lineup, it might make sense to just do trial and error and see what works best. That includes Markakis.”

Mitchell: “Without a doubt. I am not a believer in speedy slap hitters at the top of the order. I just wrote an article about batting Manny Ramirez leadoff for the Rays against RHPs due to his .428 OBP against RHP the past three seasons. The point of a lineup is to give your team the best chance to produce runs and high on-base percentages at the top produce more runs than speed guys with low on-base percentages.”

Sussman: “Markakis is the ideal two hitter for the lineup, let’s hope Roberts stays healthy.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Derrek Lee turned 35 last September. After posting a .972 OPS in ’09 with 73 XBH’s, Lee sustained a torn ligament in his thumb in April 2010. He managed to still play in 148 games, but struggled in his first 400+ at-bats and 109 games with the Cubs (.751 OPS). After being traded to Atlanta, he had a .849 OPS over his last 39 games. Lee is currently dealing with wrist tendinitis, but the thumb has been surgically healed. Obviously he is that much older, and is changing leagues; but should the expectation for his ’11 production be similar to what he produced with the Braves?”

Armida: “Assuming health (which is a big assumption), I think you get something in between like .280/.360/.475 with 20 homeruns. Like I said, health is the only concern.”

Gershman: “I foresee a good season in Derrek Lee. Yeah, he had a rough ’10, but was better in Atlanta as you said and still has power. He’s just one season removed from being one of the best in the NL.”

Mitchell: “I’d call that a high-end fair expectation, especially in that ballpark. Lee’s bat has slowed and he is in a tough division so I would call any OPS over .800 a great deal.”

Sussman: “That is the issue with getting old isn’t it? As players age, their careers are rife with uncertainty. With all the injuries, I’d expect the Braves line to be the high end projection.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Several times this off-season Cal Ripken has been asked about Mark Reynolds and the comments about his defense have been consistent. (http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2010/12/ripken-critiques-reynolds-hardy-and-more.html) Ripken, “He is a fabulous 3rd baseman, he makes a lot of great plays.” Knowing that the eye can lie, I’ve looked at FanGraphs.com and their UZR/150 rates for Reynolds at 3rd. In ’08 it was -11.3, in ’09 it was -7.4, and in ’10 it was 2.5.  That looks like a trend of improvement. In an interview with MASN, (http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2011/02/keith-law-criticizes-the-os-offseason-moves.html); ESPN’s Keith Law said, “Reynolds is a brutal defensive player.” Is the reality that Reynolds is somewhere between brutal and fabulous at the hot-corner?”

Armida: “Defense is so tough to measure, especially in snapshots. I respect both evaluators here and the truth is probably somewhere in the middle here too. He looks like he is improving and taking that part of the game seriously. But, the metrics do show a once disaster now average. If he hits to his 2009 standards, the defense is good enough. He won’t be terrible; it is probably best to expect a similar season of 2010. The trend is moving in the right direction, but he may have reached his defensive ceiling.”

Gershman: “He is really an extreme player. One day you might get an all-star and the next day a dud — but again, that’s what you’re going to get. There’s going to be a lot of power and at the same time a lot of K’s. Defensively, he really isn’t a proven commodity. It’s not really fair to call his defense good or bad, so they just have to deal with what they get.”

Mitchell: Brutal is harsh but fabulous is dreaming. He’s closer to brutal than he is to fabulous. I will say that I would not be surprised if he posted a UZR between +2 and -5 and the O’s would happily live with that.”

Sussman: “Honestly, it is tough for me to say. When one watches games on TV the camera has a tendency to play tricks on the viewer. You often miss their first step, their reactions, etc. As you suggest the reality is likely somewhere in between, but I’m an unabashed KLaw fan, so I’d be hesitant to disregard his opinion.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The O’s were 37-37 in their last 74 games last season, with a 4.13 ERA. After Showalter took over, the O’s had 36 Quality Starts in 57 games with a 3.16 ERA. The O’s have now majorly upgraded at 1st, SS, 3rd, and LF. To me, it should be realistic for this team to compile a 4.20 team era, and score 115+ more runs. As is, I have the O’s finishing 83-79 and in 4th place (Boston, Tampa, New York, Baltimore, Toronto). What record do you predict for the Orioles? What order do you have for the division?”

Armida: “I can see the Orioles finishing .500 based on their upgrades and health. But, they are incredibly thin so if injuries hit, they are in trouble in the East. At the Winter Meetings, Buck Showalter was asked if their record under him was a spring board for this year. He said it means absolutely nothing. The AL East is going to be tough and I can see no team reaching 93-94 wins this year. Right now, I’d pick it like this: Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Orioles, and Blue Jays. If it is mathematically possible, every team looks like a sure bet for at least 81 wins.”

Gershman: “Good question. I predict them in 5th, unfortunately. I think they’ll win 74 games though. 74-88.”

Mitchell: “My total predictions can be found here: http://mlbdirt.com/2011/02/17/my-2011-mlb-predicitons/

But here are my AL East standings:
1. Red Sox (94-68)
2. Rays (90-72) (Wild Card)
3. Yankees (89-73)
4. Blue Jays (82-80)
5. Orioles (77-85)

With the O’s, again, it’s not their team that is holding them back but their division. A lot of the predictions I see for them also have almost all their players improving which is a bit unrealistic. There will be some progression but there will also be some regression. I will say this, if all things click for them they could be a 3rd place team with 85 wins but that’s not where my money is.”

Sussman: “I have Boston at the top, but after that, there are a lot of questions. Will the Yankees acquire a pitcher? Do they have the depth to overcome a serious injury? The Rays have depth, but how will their younger players perform? They have a bunch players who will be starters for the first time. You may be selling Toronto a bit short too. They’ve got great pitching. Both they and the O’s have a lot of upside in their rotations. If there was a balanced schedule, I think they’d both finish over .500. In the end, I’m going with Boston, New York, Tampa, Toronto, and Baltimore.”

Note from Baltimore Sports and Life:
If this is your first time visiting BSL, you may also be interested in some of our previous Orioles Q&A’s:

Local Writers Discuss The Baltimore Orioles:
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=2183
Jeff Zrebiec, Baltimore Sun
Dave Sheinin, Washington Post
Roch Kubatko, MASN

Q&A w/ other AL East Blogs:
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=2120
Charlie Saponara, Fire Brand of the American League
Jason Collette, Dock of the Rays
The Tao of Steib
Mike Axisa, River Avenue Blues

O’s Q&A w/ National Analysts 2
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=2032
Mel Antonen, Sports Illustrated / MLB Network Radio
Matt Klasssen, FanGraphs / Beyond The Boxscore
David Pinto, Baseball Musings / Sporting News
Ed Price, FanHouse
Danny Knobler, CBSSports.com
Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

O’s Q&A w/ National Analysts
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=1880
Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune
Scott Miller, CBSSports.com
Craig Calcaterra, NBCSports.com / Hardball Talk
Joe Lemire, Sports Illustrated

O’s Q&A w/ Sabermetricians:
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=1753
Rich Lederer, Baseball Analysts
David Golebiewski, FanGraphs
Dan Szymborski, Baseball Think Factory / ESPN

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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