A few questions with Mr. Dave Studenmund Owner of The Hardball Times

Mr. Studenmund is one of the leaders of the sabermetric movement in Baseball, and the Owner of the widely successful Hardball Times.

http://www.thehardballtimes.com/

Mr. Studenmund recently took the time to answer a few questions from Baltimore Sports and Life.

BSL – “Brian Roberts turned 31 on October 9th. His contract expires after the 2009 season.In 2008, he played in 155 games, producing an 828 OPS in 611 at-bats. He had 82 walks, 51 doubles, and 40 steals. Clearly, a large portion of his game is built on speed. Prior to the 2008 season, the O’s made him available, but did not trade him when they did not receive a package they valued. Presumably, he now has less value, with 1 less year on his contract and being 1 year older. In 2010, the O’s will be looking to replace Mora at 3rd (though they do hold an option), Huff at 1st, and will be continuing to look for a long-term option at SS.

In 2011, the O’s have visions of competing, with Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Pie as their positional core…. And a pitching staff comprised out of the numerous viable options of Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Liz, Penn, Albers, Patton, Bergesen, Hernandez, Spoon, Erbe.. Etc etc..With that in-mind, do you think the Orioles extension offer of 3yrs $30M was prudent? Do you even think the O’s should attempt to extend Roberts? If so, what type of contract would you deem him worthy of?”

Dave Studenmund – “Obviously, Roberts is a very fine, solid ballplayer and he’s just alittle past his prime. It’s interesting to me that he’s become moreof a power hitter the last few years — more strikeouts, more doubles.As long as he remains a line drive hitter and not a fly ball hitter,that’s okay by me. A leading indicator might be his fly ball rate.If it starts to stay much above 40%, that won’t be good.Sometimes good all-around players lose it soon after their 31stbirthday (case in point, former Oriole second baseman Roberto Alomar),but I think it’s more likely Roberts will maintain, then slowly lose,his skills over the next five years or so. So a 3-year deal at $10million a year is a great deal for the Orioles. I think he’s worthmore (at three years, I’d sign him for about $12 million), though forsome reason second basemen are notoriously underpaid. If they can’tget him signed for that amount of money, I’d trade him.”

BSL – “In 693 AA at-bats, Nolan Reimold has produced 201 hits, 44 doubles,3 triples, 36 homers, 118 rbi, 117 runs, 80 walks, 129 k’s, 290 baa, and an 880ish OPS. With the addition of Pie, the 2009 O’s figure to lack a current opening for Reimold. Pie will be the everyday LF, Huff will be at 1st, and Scott will move to DH.

If Scott was moved elsewhere, and Reimold was given 500+ Major League at-bats in 2009, what level of production would you expect?”

Dave Studenmund – “The Hardball Times Season Preview projects a line of .237/.308/.416for Reimold, if he were to play in the majors this year. Otherprojection systems are a bit more optimistic, with batting averages a little over .250 and about 20 home runs over a full season. I don’tknow enough about the guy to agree or disagree with any projection.”

BSL – “In 2008 Wieters compiled the following stats:

Frederick – 69 Games, 229 at-bats, 8 doubles, 15 homers, 40 RBI, 44 walks, 47 k’s, 345 avg, 1.024 OPS

Bowie – 61 Games, 208 at-bats, 14 doubles, 12 homers, 51 RBI, 38 walks, 29 k’s, 365 avg, 1.085 OPS

I am projecting his 2009 numbers as:

130 Games, 520 at-bats, 25 doubles, 20 homers, 75 RBI, 70 walks, 85 k’s, 300avg, .850 OPS

In 2008 Jones compiled the following stats: 132 Games, 477 at-bats, 129 hits, 21 doubles, 7 triples, 9 homers, 57 RBI, 61 runs, 108 k’s, 23 walks, 10 steals, 711 OPS (660 vs LHP, 728 vs RHP)

In 2007 at AAA in the PCL Jones produced – 101 Games, 420 at-bats, 132 hits, 27 doubles, 6 triples, 25 homers, 84 RBI, 75 runs, 106 k’s, 36 walks, 8 steals, 968 OPS

I am projecting an OPS jump to 800, and 20 homers…

Are these reasonable or unreasonable expectations?”

Dave Studenmund – “I think your projections for Wieters and Jones are reasonable, andI’d love to see them both succeed in Baltimore.”

BSL – “In 2008, the O’s assembled their roster using a 3 man bench for large stretches of the year. In 2009, there is some conjecture they are once again considering that approach. Is there any justification for a 13 man staff?”

Dave Studenmund – “The Orioles’ pitching is going to be bad this year. Probablyreally bad. And that is exactly the kind of staff that might beexpected to carry a 13-man bullpen. If you don’t have quality, opt forquantity.Does this make sense? I think it may. The Orioles aren’t going tocontend this year, and the strategic advantage they might gain from abetter bench won’t matter a lot. Plus, they have a number of fineyoung players who could benefit from a lot of playing time. Theydidn’t have a particular weakness against lefty vs. righty pitcherslast year, and I wouldn’t expect them to this year, either. So theadvantages of a deep bench aren’t quite as relevant for them.It might be better to have a deep bullpen to keep your few good youngpitchers from pitching too many poor innings, getting hurt or losingconfidence. Plus, maybe you’ll find a hot hand.”

BSL – “I currently believe the O’s bullpen would be comprised as follows:

Sherrill, Ray, Johnson, Walker, Sarfate, Penn, Pauley

There is recent talk of the Orioles obtaining either Rich Hill, or B.Looper. If the O’s acquired either, it would move Hendrickson to the bullpen… And probably force a trade or release of Walker.

General thoughts on this group?”

Dave Studenmund – “I hate to say it, but I think the Orioles had one of the worstbullpens in the majors last year, and I think it will be really badthis year, too.”