A review of the June preview

On May 30th, I released the June Preview:

http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/05/orioles-june-preview.html

As the Month comes to an end, let’s review.

Baltimore ended May at 23-28. They were 16-13 at OPACY, and 7-15 on the road.

I listed 15 goals and thoughts for the month.

Goal 1) The O’s were 11-7 in inter-league play during 2008, and they have started 2-1 in inter-league play during 2009. The goal should be 9-6 in the 15 inter-league games for the month.

Result 1) The O’s are 8-5 in the 13 inter-league games for the month, with two to play.

Goal 2) The O’s are 16-13 at home. In June, the goal should be 10-4 in the 14 June home games.

Result 2) The O’s are 6-4 at home in June, with 4 home games remaining.

Goal 3) The O’s are just 7-15 on the road, and have 12 games on the road in June. The goal should be 6-6, but 5-7 is probably more likely.

Result 3) The O’s finished the month at just 4-8 away from OPACY, as the road-woes overall continued.

Goal 4) The O’s ended April at 9-13, and ended May at 23-28. In June, my expectation is a 15-11 month.

Result 4) The O’s are 10-12 for June, with 4 games remaining. 3-1, and a 500 month would be acceptable.

Goal / Thought 5) Matt Wieters made his Major League Debut last night, May 29th.Wieters should get roughly 100 at-bats during the month, and you just want to see him get off to a solid-start, beginning with plate-discipline.

Result 5) Wieters has had 73 at-bats so far with the O’s, and appears to have become much more comfortable his last 10 games. His OPS is currently at .705, and he has had 7 XBH. He has 18 k’s, and 6 walks… a ratio that bears watching in July. The O’s have faced a bunch of lefties which has had Wieters batting from the right-hand side more often. I have found his swing to be a bit long, and think he has missed a fair share of fastballs. He calls a great game, and gives an outstanding target. I am expecting his bat to really come alive in July.

Goal / Thought 6) Reimold has 5 homers in his first 56 at-bats, and currently has an OPS of .888. Reimold has been prone to extremes in the minors where he goes on offensive tears, followed by prolonged slumps. When he starts to slump, I want to see him remain in the lineup. The only issue I currently see with him at the plate is that he appears to have some trouble with junk on the outside corner. His HR Tuesday against Toronto where he went with the pitch, and deposited into the RF bleachers was very impressive. His power is the real-deal… In June, I want to see if he can consistently drive pitches to RF.

Result 6) After 3 hits, including a double, and walk last night; Reimold has an OPS over 900 through 120 Major League at-bats. Reimold has been moved to the 5th spot in the lineup, which should only help him continue to get pitches to hit. The 13 XBH’s is impressive, but not as impressive as his 15 walks to 20 k’s. He has good at-bats, and has shown a willingness to lay off pitches outside he can not handle. You also have to like that he runs out every play hard.

Goal / Thought 7) The O’s have a useful bench of Zaun, Wigginton, Pie, and Andino. They need to be used, and with 6 inter-league games in National League parks, they should receive that opportunity.

Result 7) It was a good month for Andino, Wigginton, and Zaun. The injury to Izturis forced Andino into regular action, and he took advantage of the opportunity. Wigginton has raised his OPS from .605 to .693. Zaun has raised his OPS from .602 to .683. I am not a huge fan of National League baseball, but being able to use the whole bench with more regularity is a benefit. Pie has actually raised his OPS from .595 to .633, but he only has had 11 at-bats for the month.

Goal / Thought 8) Adam Jones has an OPS over 1.000 as May is ending, with 25 xbh’s in 175 at-bats. It is hard to imagine him being able to keep-up this level of MVP caliber production, but if he comes anywhere close – he will be in line to be named a reserve on the AL All-Star team.

Result 8) Despite 3 hits, including a double and a triple last night; Jones’ OPS has fallen to .880. Now, to be clear – that is still an extremely solid number. It is all the more impressive when you step-back and remember this is Jones’ 2nd-full season in the bigs. However, the drop in his June production might have hurt his chances to be named an AL All-star reserve.

I would like to see Jones get back to driving the ball to RF with consistency, and not getting himself out by trying to pull off-speed pitches on the outside.

Goal / Thought 9) Markakis has been cold, as he is just 9 for 50, with zero walks in his last 11 games. You will know he is out of the slump as soon as he starts going opposite-field again, and getting a few walks. All-Star games only mean so much, but I’d like to see Markakis get there, and that will take a strong June for that to be possible.

Result 9) Markakis had 4 hits Thursday and 3 hits last night – so maybe his slump is coming to an end. Nick had suffered a slump that took him from an OPS over 1.000 on May 12th, to an OPS of .801 on June 24th. The fact that the O’s are in position for a 500 month of June, with the minimal production they got from Nick is a good thing.

Goal 10) Rich Hill has made 3 starts, and is 1-0, with a 6.14 era. In his first two outings, he went 5.2 innings both times, and allowed just 2er each time. In the latest outing he allowed 6er in 3.1 innings. In 14.2innings, he has allowed 16 hits, and 9 walks, with 15 k’s.
I’m looking for 30 innings, with about 28 hits, 30 k’s, and 10 walks. Hill’s fastball has sat around 87,88… I’m interested to see if he can raise that to 89-91 with a bit more work. He needs to get ahead, and continue to be able to finish off hitters with that monster 12-6 curve.

Result 10) Hill has now started 8 games, and is 3-2, with a 6.03 era. In 37.1 innings, he has allowed 37 hits, 24 walks, with 34 k’s. He has held hitters to a .776 OPS against.

Hill has pitched 22.2 innings in June, with 21 hits allowed, 19 k’s, and 15 walks. His fastball has increased to more of the 89-91 range vs. the 87-88 range he was showing initially.

I would like to see him stay in the rotation, and continue to use his fastball and change-up with more regularity. His hits and K’s per IP are very solid, but that goes for naught if he can not throw strikes. If Uehara does not go on the DL, and Hernandez joins the team Sunday; Hill is in danger of losing his spot in the rotation.

Goal 11) Uehara allowed 21 hits, 8 er, 5 bb’s, with 19 k’s in 20.2 innings during May before being moved to the DL with a left-hamstring injury. Having a couple of weeks off, will probably serve him well as the season progresses. During the past two years, he had a total of 150 innings pitched… the injury could wind-up being a blessing that keeps him fresh. When he returns from the DL, who does he replace? The current expectation would be Berken.

Result 11) Uehara returned from the DL, and replaced Hernandez. Fairly ironically, Uehara could be moving back to the DL and be replaced by Hernandez.

O’s fans are getting frustrated by Uehara’s seemingly in-ability to pitch beyond 95 pitches, and the injuries he has sustained (hamstring, elbow).

On the other-hand, I think Uehara is doing what he was signed to do.

In his 12 starts, Uehara has pitched 66.2 innings, allowed 71 hits, 12 walks, with 48 k’s. In 8 of his starts, he has pitched at-least 5 innings, and allowed 3er or less.

Uehara was signed to add an experienced pitcher to the rotation, and build brand-awareness of the Baltimore Orioles in Asia. His signing has been a success.

He signed with Baltimore, because the O’s offered the opportunity of starting. While I doubt his ability to finish 2009 in the rotation, I think the O’s have to continue to start him; until it becomes completely apparent he can not handle it. You want Uehara – and the Japanese media following him – to have a positive feeling about the Orioles, so that the O’s can build on this signing going-forward.

Ultimately, Uehara is going to be an outstanding addition to the O’s bullpen either later this year, or next.

Goal 12) In Brian Bass’s last 19.1 innings, he has allowed 3 er, with 18 k’s, and just 6 bb’s. I do not believe in him, but I can not dispute his recent run of success. I would like to see his role expanded to situations of additional responsibility, and see how he responds.

Result 12) Bass has allowed 5 er in his last 6.1 innings, but is in no current danger of losing his roster-spot.

Goal 13) I would like to see Chris Ray back in an Oriole uniform by July 1st.

Result 13) Ray went back to AAA, and pitched 12 innings. In those 12 innings, he allowed 5 hits, walked 4, and had 13 k’s. He came back to the bigs on June 23rd, and had 1.2 scoreless his first outing. His second outing, he allowed 7 hits in 1.2 innings, including a Grand-slam and 5 er. He has only pitched 18.2 innings this year, so his era over 10 only means so much, but this is why you want him back with the O’s. AAA clearly is no match for Ray; he has to show during the remainder of 2009, that he can again get ML hitters out. As I said yesterday, he might not be the guy that had 33 saves in 2006; but he is a better pitcher than he has showed so far this year. Having him end 2009 confident in himself is extremely important.

Goal 14) Bergesen, Berken, and Hernandez will get multiple opportunities in June. Bergesen ended May with his best start, going 8 innings, allowing 7 hits, 2 er, 0 bb’s, with 3 k’s. Was it just a coincidence that Wieters was catching? Bergesen is going to be around the plate, without overpowering stuff.. this means he is going to give up his share of hits. Can he improve his k-rate at all?Berken also has good control, and is going to pound the zone… can he force a bunch of grounders with his sinker? Hernandez has led the South Atlantic, Carolina, and Eastern Leagues in K’s… he had a ton at Norfolk this year…. Can he continue to get hitters to chase at the ML Level? Can he consistently get his change-up over for strikes?

Result 14) Bergesen had 5 starts in June, and went at-least 6 innings, and allowed 4er or less each-time. He ends the month with Trembley calling Bergesen his most consistent starter.

I think Berken belongs in the bullpen, and I believe he can help the team in that capacity. I was shocked to see him hitting 97 in the 7th inning of the Mets game. You might have a Jim Johnson clone if he makes the conversion to relief.

Hernandez was sent back to AAA when Uehara has pulled off the DL, but appears likely to make a return to Baltimore tomorrow.

Goal 15) The Spring Training concern about Luke Scott adapting to DH seems rather silly at this point. With two games remaining before June, he has 16 xbh’s in 110 at-bats, and has an OPS of 1.084. In 2007 he had 53 walks, and 95 k’s.In 2008 he had 53 walks, and 102 k’s. In 2009 he has 15 walks, and 19 k’s. Can he keep that current walk to k ratio close through June?

Result 15) In June, Luke Scott has kept with his persona of being a very streaky-hitter. He has now had 189 at-bats, and has 21 xbh’s, meaning just 5 xbh’s in his last 79 at-bats. His OPS has dropped from 1.046 at the start of June, to .928 currently.

As the month comes to an end, Scott now has 22 walks, and 41 k’s, making the June ratio 7 walks to 22 k’s.