After the Orioles dramatic victory over the Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS, the series is tied 1-1 as the teams head to New York for the remainder of the series. It would have been a monumental task for the Orioles to win 3 games in the Bronx, so winning Game 2 on Monday night was incredibly important for the team. There was certainly some controversy in the game, namely when Angel Hernandez called Ichiro safe at the plate when he appeared to avoid the tag of Matt Wieters while running far out of the base line to do it. See here, and here, and here, and here for complete coverage of the call. I’m sure the MLB League Office is glad that the call didn’t have an effect on the outcome of the game. Just another game for Angel Hernandez, probably the league’s worst umpire.
For the Orioles, it was another 1 run win which extends their league best record in 1 run games to 30-9. After his Game 1 implosion, it was good to see Jim Johnson get a chance to exercise the demons of the night before. JJ was much better this time around in a save situation. Many argue that closers can’t pitch in non-save situations. I don’t really buy into that narrative. Johnson is an excellent reliever who had a bad night. It just so happened that it was a tie game in the playoffs. He’s had meltdowns before, and he’ll have them again but it was great to see him bounce back with a 1-2-3 9th inning. I know Buck never lost confidence in him, I hope the O’s fan base can say the same.
With the series tied at 1, the ALDS is essentially down to a best of 3. The teams will get a day off on Tuesday before playing 3 consecutive days Wednesday to Friday (if necessary). Both teams have gotten excellent starting pitching in the first 2 games of the series. Sabathia and Pettitte for the Yankees and Hammel and Chen for the Orioles. It will be interesting to see if the trend continues in New York.
Here are the probable pitching matchups for the rest of the series:
Game 3:
NYY RHP Huroki Kuroda (219.2 innings/3.32 ERA/3.86 FIP)
BAL RHP Miguel Gonzalez (105.1 innings/3.25 ERA/4.38 FIP)
Game 4:
NYY RHP Phil Hughes (191.1 innings/4.23 ERA/4.56 FIP)
BAL RHP Chris Tillman (86 innings/2.93 ERA/4.25 FIP)
Game 5:
NYY LHP C.C. Sabathia (200 innings/3.38 ERA/3.33 FIP)
BAL RHP Jason Hammel (118 innings/3.43 ERA/3.29 FIP)
Keep in mind that the Orioles have not officially announced that Tillman and Hammel are getting the ball in games 4 and 5, but I expect them to. To read more on Miguel Gonzalez, see Tucker Blair’s great write up here. Kuroda is a control pitcher who had an extremely successful first season in New York. His statistics have stayed very similar to when he was in LA pitching for the Dodgers, except for his home run rate. He gave up home runs on 13% of his flyballs this season, which as a right handed pitcher in Yankee stadium makes sense with the short porch in right. The league average was about 11%. Other than the slight home run problem, he gets a fair number of strikeouts and does a great job limiting walks.
The Orioles will go back to their primary lineup against right handed pitchers in Games 3 and 4, subbing in Ryan Flaherty at 2B and sticking with Chris Davis in RF and Jim Thome at DH. That gives them 5 left handed hitters to match up with the right handed starters the Yankees will throw at them in Games 3 and 4. Kuroda held righties to a .291 wOBA and gave up a .315 wOBA to lefties. The league hit for a .315 wOBA this season. For those wanting to learn more about wOBA, head to the Fangraphs glossary.
Despite Joe Saunders’ exceptional pitching performance in the Wild Card game, odds are that Buck will choose Chris Tillman to start Game 4. With as much success as Tillman’s had since he arrived from AAA this year, that decision makes a lot of sense. Jeff Long called him the pitching X factor of the series, and I’m inclined to agree. If the Orioles can have 4 starters give them good outings in this series, they have a good shot to take the series.
Phil Hughes had a good season for the Yankees this year, but is not the top of the rotation starter the team hoped he’d be. Balls hit off of him tilt heavily toward the fly ball variety, which can be a problem in Yankee Stadium. This tendency led to Hughes giving up 1.65 HR/9 innings, which was the 3rd highest rate for qualified starters this season. Strangely enough, out of the 35 home runs he gave up this season, 24 of them came against right handed hitters even though he faced 29 more left handed batters on the season. Game 4 could be the game where Adam Jones gets going. All it takes is one long fly ball to get him feeling good at the plate. Let’s hope that he can get that off one of the most home run friendly pitchers in the league.
For all the talk about the Yankees moving Alex Rodriguez down in the lineup, Dave Cameron reminds fans that ARod has performed just fine in the playoffs. The talk about him not performing is a media created narrative more than anything else. I’m not sure how you can jump to a conclusion on a player based on anything that happens in 2 games or 9 at bats.
Game 3 is an extremely important game in the series. Obviously, it is extremely difficult to win Games 4 and 5 on the road in Yankee Stadium, so let’s hope the Birds can win Game 3 tonight. It will take another stellar pitching performance from Miguel Gonzalez and the continued brilliance of the bullpen. Darren O’Day should be rested after only facing one hitter on Monday night and having an off day yesterday, so Buck should have him ready to pitch at least an inning tonight. With the off day yesterday, the entire bullpen should be available for Showalter to play the right-left matchups as he chooses. I expect another close game to be decided in the late innings. Hopefully the Orioles bullpen can come up big for the team once again as they have all season.
Kevin was the owner of the Orioles blog Eutaw Street Blues. He had operated the site since the beginning of the Orioles magical 2012 season. He tends to focus on sabermetric analysis of the Orioles and their minor league affiliates. He balances his analysis between what he sees with his eyes and what the analysis of the data says. The Columbia, MD native attended the University of Colorado at Boulder while obtaining a Bachelors of Science degree in Business Administration. He also attended Loyola University Maryland obtaining the degree of Masters of Business Administration. When Kevin is not reading or writing about baseball, he finds time to work at M&T Bank.