2010 saw the Major League debut of Jake Arrieta. What can be expected of him in 2011?

You can feel pretty confident of receiving positive production from Matusz, and Guthrie at the front of the O’s rotation. With Bergesen and Tillman or Britton; the Orioles match-up well with most American League teams at the 4th and 5th starters.

To me, what you can out of Arrieta is a real key to the overall rotation. Let us take a look at some of Arrieta’s numbers.

2010 MLB: 6-6, 4.66 era, 100.1 IP, 106 hits, 9 hr’s, 48 walks, 52 k’s, .767 OPS, 0.80 G/F
2010 AAA:
6-2, 1.85 era, 73 IP, 48 hits, 3 hr’s, 34 walks, 64 k’s
2009 AAA:
5-8, 3.93 era, 91 IP, 97 hits, 9 hr’s, 33 walks 78 k’s
2009 AA:
6-3, 2.59 era, 59 IP, 45 hits, 4 hr’s, 23 walks, 70 k’s

So what do we see here? We see that as a 24 year-old in his first go around in the bigs, that he was competitive. His walk rate was increased over what it was in the Minors. This is a pretty good indication that he was able to get Minor League hitters to expand their strike-zones, while the Major League hitters were a bit more patient.

His 2010 AAA numbers were vastly improved over his 2009 AAA numbers. I read that as Arrieta being more comfortable in his surroundings, and making some adjustments to the competition. You would hope to see similar growth from him this year, in his second season in the bigs.

Beyond just ‘hoping’ for improvement from Arrieta, how he ended the 2010 season gives optimism for that. In September, he drastically improved his control allowing just 2 walks over his last 17.1 innings.

Here is a Fangraphs.com article from July which talked about Arrieta’s early struggles:
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/arrietas-early-struggles/

The Fangraphs article mentioned a lot of advanced metrics. Here is a review of where he was at the time of the article (July 26th) and where he finished the year.

Swinging Strike Rate 7/26: 5.5%
Swinging Strike Rate End of Year: 5.7%
MLB Avg: 8.4%

Outside Swing % 7/26: 32.1%
Outside Swing % End of Year: 29%
MLB Avg: 28.9%

Outside Contact rate % 7/26: 80.5%
Outside Contact rate % End of Year: 76.3%
MLB Avg: 66.5%

Z-Contact % 7/26: 90.6%  (Measures % of times a batter makes contact w/ the ball when swinging at pitches within the strike zone)
Z-Contact % End of Year: 92.1%
MLB Avg: 88.2%

First Pitch Strike % 7/26: 54.3%
First Pitch Strike % End of Year: 54.1%
MLB Avg: 58.8%

So as the year progressed, he got MLB hitters to swing at more pitches (but not much as the league avg.) and hitters continued to make contact at a high %. The most interesting number I see is the First Pitch Strike %. It makes sense to me that if he falls behind in counts early, that hitters are able wait for their pitch longer (and thus avoid swinging at as many pitched outside the zone).  Clearly if Arrieta can improve there, he will likely improve his walk-rate as well.

The 6’4, 220 lb Arrieta turns 25 in March. For the 2011 season, I predict the following:
13-10, 3.99 era, 185 innings, 180 hits, 82 er, 18 homers, 82 walks, 120 k’s

Might be overly optimistic for ’11, but I think it is believable. What do you predict for the young righty?

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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