As Maryland prepares for their first Atlantic Coast Conference game of the season this Sunday against Florida State, here are some thoughts on the Terps, as they attempt to reach the tournament for the 3rd time in 4 years.

1) As has been discussed repeatedly, the win at Indiana is only going to count so much for the Terp’s post-season resume. Before a conference game is played, Maryland has a RPI of 92, and a Strength of Schedule of 93.

After the Terps go through their ACC schedule (and Wisconsin, and Indiana go through the Big 10, and Villanova, and Cincinnati go through the Big East) the SOS will finish Top 30 overall.

Maryland is going to have to win at-least 9, and most-likely 10 ACC games (including the ACC Tournament) to get an invitation to the big dance. The first-week of ACC play January 10th through the 16th against Florida State, and at Wake Forest, and Boston College is going to be huge the Terps. It is important to start strong in league play and get some confidence going.

2) The Terps have to make a concerted effort each game to limit their 3 point attempts, and attack the rim. Hayes is shooting 44% from 3, Mosley is shooting 41%, Milbourne, and Tucker are both shooting 36%, and Vasquez is shooting 34%. Each of them are capable of getting hot, and knocking down a couple of shots from the outside. Hayes is the only one of the bunch, you actually want to see letting it fly with any regularity.

Maryland is at their best, when they are able to get into a transition game, and run. When the opposition goes to a zone, and packs it in; the Terps are occasionally suckered into taking jumpers. The Terps will have to continue to work at beating the zone with dribble penetration, and either finding Williams, or finding their way to the line.

One reason why the Terps have traditionally played well against North Carolina, and Duke; is the typical style of play of those teams. The up and down game plays to the strengths of Maryland. It will be a bit different this year against those teams, as they have an abundance of size, and are playing more zone than usual. If Maryland can not penetrate their zone defenses, they will have a hard time winning those games.

3) Besides getting shots from close-in, the other benefit of attacking the rim is forcing contact, and getting to the line. Vasquez shoots 87% from the line. Hayes is shooting 87% from the line for his career. Milbourne is shooting just 74% from the line this year, but has shot at least 79.5% the pat two seasons. Mosley is shooting 76%. Jordan Williams is averaging just 52% from the line on his 3.2 attempts per game, but has made 16 of his last 25 (64%) attempts. 20 Free Throws a game has to be the goal.

4) Williams, James Padgett, and Dino Gregory are averaging a combined 17. 4 points, and 16.4 rebounds a game. It appears that Steve Goins’ knees are not allowing him to provide any minutes off the bench, so the aforementioned 3 players are the Maryland bigs for this year.

As of Sunday, Maryland was the only team in the ACC with a negative rebounding margin. That number was somewhat misleading, as Gregory had missed those 8 initial games.
Still, in the games against Major conference teams, Maryland lost on the boards by 14 to Cincinnati, 7 to Wisconsin, were even with Indiana, and lost by 12 to Villanova.

You can argue that the Maryland bigs do not have to provide that level of scoring, but they will have to rebound.

5) In his 8th Collegiate game, Williams provided 19 points, and 12 boards against Villanova and the nation’s 3rd ranked team. He has 8 games with at-least 8 boards, and 6 games with at-least 8 points. He is scoring his points on put-backs, 2nd effort, and getting to the line. While he occasionally gets rewarded for running the court, the team is not running a lot of sets for him. I think the Terrapin guards would be wise to get the ball to Williams at-least once every possession. Use the flex to work inside-out.

6) The Terps are going to play the rest of this season with a 9 man rotation. The starting lineup of Hayes, Vasquez, Mosley, Milbourne, and Williams; with Bowie, Tucker, Gregory, and Padgett off the bench. A 9 man lineup is deep enough, but watching JSC depart, and getting nothing out of Goins hurts. Any significant injury or further departure would severely limit what this group could accomplish.

Every single one of those 9 players has a roll to play:

A) Hayes has to hit his open 3’s. He also has to continue to make strides of going to the rim, and getting to the line. When he got aggressive in the ACC Tournament last year, he simply gave Maryland another look. At the end of a game with the lead, you want the ball in his hands, due to his ball control, and ability to knock down FT’s.

B) Vasquez remains the play-maker. He is capable of doing everything, even though he is not blessed with great athleticism, or a great shot. For the 3rd consecutive year, his 3 point attempts are down, and his % is improved. As conference play begins, I believe he has to continue to work his game even closer to the basket. Obviously he is always going to look to drive, and either use the rim, or dish to teammates. Him continuing to be able to drive is going to be key, as Maryland faces more and more zone defenses. I would also like to see him use his size, and back down opposing guards.

C) If Maryland is going to be a dangerous team in March, it is going to be in-part because Mosley continues to emerge as a consistent scorer. Like last year, Mosley does a bit of everything. He is averaging 5.2 boards, 3.3 assists, and 1.6 steals. He has improved his FT shooting 5% from last-season, and his 3 point shooting from 24% to 41%. He is running hard off screens, and burying that intermediate curl, while shooting an unbelievable 61% from the floor. Against Villanova, Mosley dropped 26 points as he showed he could score against the best. For the year, his scoring has increased to 13.4 points per game, up from 5.3 this past year. If anything, he needs to be a bit more selfish, and make sure he does not fade to the background.

D) Milbourne is averaging 14.8 points, 5.4 boards, and shooting 54.2% from the field. In 6 games, he has scored at-least 19 points. In 6 games, he has had at-least 7 boards. To me the key to his numbers is his 30 minutes a game. As ACC play starts, I would like to see those minutes decrease slightly. My rationale for that, is that the 6’7 207 lb forward is typically giving up size and strength each game against opposing PF’s. When he plays a slower PF, he gives them trouble with his athleticism, and ability to pull them outside to the 3 point-line. When he plays athletic PF’s, he has trouble scoring, and has to work extremely hard on the boards. My hope is that Gregory and Padgett can help provide Milbourne with an extra few minutes of rest, and make it more likely for Milbourne to be fresh, and provide the scoring the Terps need out of him.

E) I talked about Jordan Williams above. For MD to have success in conference-play, he does not have to provide a lot of scoring, but he has to rebound, and provide a presence in the post. I expect he will continue to do that. I think he is capable of more, if he is given the ball and the opportunity.

F) Bowie was awesome against UNC Greensboro the other day. He worked the top of the key, and was a ball-hawk. He was active with his hands, and used his speed to spear transition. It was his 3rd game of the year with 3 steals, and was an example of Bowie at his best. I will be happy if I do not see Bowie attempt another 3 pointer the rest of the year. I would like to see him improve at the line (68% last year, 50% this year).

With the Seminoles coming to town, I remember back to his game last year against Florida State when he exploded for 23 points, 5 boards, 3 assists, and 2 steals.

I think Gary Williams will reward Bowie next-year, and have him in the starting line-up; with Stoglin, and Howard backing him up. It would be good to see Bowie to get regular minutes the rest of the season, and see his confidence rise. For Maryland to make the tournament this year, he has to play well off the bench the rest of the way.

G) This Terrapin team is not an overly athletic bunch, which is why it is important for Tucker to regularly get minutes. He really is capable of a lot of things, and I believe will surprise a lot of people when he starts next-season. I anticipate a Drew Nicholas Senior season, where Tucker goes from the bench to near All-Conference level. Maybe not 2nd-team ACC like Nicholas, but I think Tucker does have Honorable mention ACC level talent. Tucker is shooting 56% from the field, 36% from 3, and 5.8 points per game. Tucker seems to be at his best when he gets a couple of easy baskets, and then works his way back.

After not playing against Indiana, getting 9 minutes against Villanova, and 4 minutes against Eastern Kentucky; Tucker has averaged nearly 20 minutes in the four games since. Though not number is skewed by Mosley missing the Florida Atlantic game, and Tucker receiving 27 minutes in his absence. I think it is worth noting that Tucker had just 11 minutes against W&M.

His athleticism, and defense make a difference. So does his ability to score. Nobody should forget that in his two games against eventual champion North Carolina last-year, Tucker averaged 20 points, 5 boards, and 3 assists.

H) I talked about Gregory and Padgett above. Gregory is listed at 6’7 227, and Padgett is listed at 6’8 225. Both can look a tad undersized at times, but both have obviously spent time in the gym. If they lack overall size, they both bring athleticism, and an ability and desire to play defense. Gregory has a shot to 12 feet or so, but really their offensive games are limited to dunks, and put-backs. That is fine. Just run the court, rebound, block shots, and use their 10 fouls diligently.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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