On April 29th, I previewed the Month of May for the Orioles.
http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/04/orioles-may-preview.html
Based on that, lets review the stated goals, and where the O’s stand as the Month ends.
Goals & Thoughts for the Month
The goal 1) Baltimore is 4-6 against the American League East. During May, the O’s have 16 games against their division foes. The goal should be 8-8 for the month.
The result 1) The O’s are 10-16 against the East, finishing 6-10 for the month.
The goal 2) The Orioles are 7-7 at home this April… with today’s game remaining. You have to defend the home-field… 8-6 is probably a realistic expectation for May, but 9-5 should be the goal.
The result 2) The O’s are 14-11 at home with 4 games remaining in the month. The O’s are 7-3 at home so far for the month.
The goal 3) The O’s have won just 2 of their first 7 games on the road… 7-8 in May would be a strong-month.
The result 3) The O’s are 7-15 on the road, and finished the month just 5-10 away from Camden Yards.
The goal 4) If the O’s can win today, they would close out April at 10-12. The Orioles would then have to go 16-13 in May to head into June at agame over 500. (26-25) Looking at the schedule, I am anticipating a 15 win and 14 loss record for the month.
The result 4) The O’s ended April at 9-13, they are currently 21-26. That means they are 12-13 for the month and need to win 3 of the next 4 to meet my expectation of a 15-14 May.
The goal 5) Greg Zaun calls a decent game, gives a great target… and I am sure he is a better hitter than he has looked. That said, he is a 38 year old journey-man catcher that is batting .111 (6 hits in 54 at-bats), with a.423 OPS… Matt Wieters needs to be recalled… You can understand the O’s not be excited about Wieters obtaining Super 2 status, and potentially paying out $10-$20M to him in additional salary. However, that can be avoided if the O’s work towards signing him to a long-term Longoria-esque contract.
The result 5) Matt Wieters makes his Major League Debut tomorrow May 29th.
The goal 6) Rich Hill will take the mound tonight for Norfolk, as he makes his 2nd rehab start. That should put him in-line for his first Oriole start May 8th or 9th. When he is recalled… Hendrickson goes to the bullpen, and I hope Walker is released.
The result 6) Hill has made 3 starts in an Oriole uniform, and been very effective twice. His 12 to 6 curve is a major plus pitch, that makes it understandable to see why he racks up so many k’s. The key for him will continue to be his control. With Hernandez being promoted to the O’s tonight, a corresponding move will have to be made. I would still like to see Walker released, but am anticipating Ray being sent to AAA
The goal 7) Besides the recall of Hill, and Wieters, and the release of Walker,and Moeller… I am hoping to see the release of Eaton, Bass; with the recalls of Albers and Patton by the end of May.
The result 7) Hill is up, Berken is up, Hernandez is up, Albers is up, Reimold is up, Wieters is up tomorrow. Moeller and Eaton are gone. I am not a fan of Bass, but he has been effective for over a month. I still want to see Patton promoted to AAA.
The goal 8) Jones has an OPS of 1.065, Markakis has an OPS of 1.026, Roberts has an OPS of .940…. They are not going to fall off a cliff, but maintaining this level of production is not going to happen. In May,when they come back to Earth a bit… you will need increased production from Huff, Scott, Mora, and Wiggington.
The result 8) Jones is ending May with an OPS of 1.060… he is producing at an MVP caliber level in his 2nd year in the bigs. Markakis has been cool and fallen off to an OPS of .870, Roberts is at .863. Scott came of the DL yesterday, and made an immediate difference. Wigginton has an OPS under .600, inclusive of an on-base % under .300. Mora has not been consistently driving the ball since coming off the DL… Huff continues to warm.
The goal 9) It was a rough first 48 Oriole at-bats for Felix Pie, but he needs to play on a regular basis in May. You do not give up on a 24 year old that has had his level of success at the AA, and AAA levels after 48at-bats. He is 8 for his first 48… he has an on-base% of .259… I want to see him have at-least 70 at-bats during the coming Month. If Pie gets 70 May at-bats, I anticipate him getting around 18 hits….. Making him cumulatively 26 for 118… which would give him a .220 average… if that is the case, his on-base% will probably be around .312. A .220 average, and a .312 on-base% at the end of May, would be nothing to write home about, but would position Pie with something to build onheading to June. If Pie has not reached that level of production by the end of May, at a minimum he will be in a straight platoon with Montanez….. Or possibly Reimold will be promoted and take the position on an everyday basis.
The result 9) After an April where he went 8 for 48, Pie is 9 for 39 in May. He is not going to meet my goal of 70 at-bats for the month…. With Montanez’s injury, Pie should be able to stay with the roster and get somewhat regular playing time as the 4th OF. Just because Reimold has been promoted and taken the position, does not eliminate the possibility of Pie contributing to this team in the future. Huff is a FA, Luke Scott is often mentioned as trade-bait because he is productive, and cheap… in 2010, Reimold could be an option at either 1st or DH, with Pie again having an opportunity in LF. Remember that Pie is a year younger than Reimold, and not everyone develops at the same schedule. Also remember that Reimold has 49 at-bats in 13 games, while Pie has just 87 in 47 games. It is easier to produce if you are in the lineup everyday consistently.
The goal 10) Guthrie is 2-1, 5.20 era, 27.2 innings, 34 hits, 11 walks, 5 homers allowed, with 16 k’s. Uehara is 2-1, 4.56 era, 23.2 innings, 21 hits, 6 walks, with 14k’s, heading into today’s game.Neither one is an Ace, and they get crushed under those expectations.Monday night, Guthrie labored… but he had more life and movement onhis fastball, and his velocity was consistently at 94. His control has been a bit of an issue so far in 2009, but his mechanics lookedimproved.Guthrie should have at-least 5 starts in May… and they need to bebetter than his first 5 starts of 2009. Looking for 35+ innings for the month, with no more than a hit per IP, a better walk-rate, and less homers allowed.Uehara has allowed 2 er or less in three of his four starts… has gone 7 innings, and 6.2 innings in his last two starts… he has already made several adjustments during this year. It will be interesting to watch how the league adjusts to him, as the book on him increases.
The result 10) Guthrie has made 5 May starts and has pitched 33 innings, allowing 31 hits, 9 bb’s, and 6 homers allowed with one start remaining. In 20.2 May innings, Uehara allowed 21 hits, 8 er, 5 bb, with 19 k’s. He has been moved to the DL with a left-hamstring injury.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.