Baltimore Orioles Roster Review: Starting Pitching

With the 2012 season now over for the Baltimore Orioles, it is time to look ahead, and forecast what awaits for the internal existing options for the 2013 Starting Rotation.

Here in these first weeks of October, I think it is logical and easy to project that Jason Hammel, and Wei-Yin Chen will definitively be part of the O’s Opening Day rotation if they are healthy. Who joins them for the other 3 spots?

Based on what Chris Tillman achieved over his 15 starts this year, he goes into the off-season as a prohibitive favorite to join Hammel, and Chen.

Miguel Gonzalez’s ALDS Game 3 performance in Yankee Stadium cemented to me that he is going to be hard to remove from the O’s rotation, at-least to begin next season.

You never know what health issues may arise, but should the aforementioned four pitchers be healthy to begin next year, I believe there will only be one rotation spot up for grabs next Spring. As of today, I would expect Zach Britton and Brian Matusz* to be battling for that last spot. Of course this is again under the hypothetical of projecting the rotation with current internal options only.

*BSL’s Jeff Long gave a good look at Matusz earlier this week.

By the end of May, and heading into June; I fully expect Dylan Bundy to be one of the O’s 5 starters. Via health concerns or under performance somewhere, Bundy will get his chance.

Should Jake Arrieta remain with the organization, I believe his future with the Birds will be out of the bullpen. I could see both Steve Johnson and Tommy Hunter pitching in long-relief for Baltimore, and I could see both being asked to start at AAA Norfolk and gain extended innings there, as preparation to join the O’s rotation (on a spot-start basis) should need arise.

Hammel 2012:
8-6, 3.18 era, 118 ip, 104 hits, 9 hr’s, 42 bb’s, 113 k’s, .637 OPS against, 1.17 G/F.
xFIP 3.46, K% 22.9, BB% 8.5, LD% 18.7, SwStr % 9.9.

General Thoughts:
According to Texas Leaguers, Hammel threw his 2 seam fastball 35.1% of the time, with an average velocity of 93.3 mph. By percentage, this was Hammel’s most widely used pitch. In 2011, the 2 seam was not part of his repertoire at all, which is why Hammel looked liked a different pitcher in 2012 to anyone that had seen him previously. Utilizing the 2 seam, Hammel recorded the highest G/F ratio of his career.  After averaging 175 innings per year over ’09-’11, Hammel was limited to under 120 innings in ’12 with his right knee injury. Hammel turned 30 September 2nd, and ends ’12 with a sub .500 career record (42-51). Due to that, it would be easy to list him as a ‘journeyman’ had you never seen him pitch. A closer look at him shows he had two very solid years with the Rockies – with a fWAR of 3.9 in ’09, and a fWAR of 4.1 in ’10. Anyone that saw Hammel pitch this year, saw that he had the ability to overwhelm. A Free Agent after ’13, I would like to see the Orioles offer him a 1 or 2  year extension this Winter.

Chen 2012:
12-11, 4.01 era, 192.2 ip, 186 hits, 29 hr’s, 57 bb’s, 154 k’s, .729 OPS against, 0.64 G/F.
xFIP 4.34, K% 18.8, BB% 7, LD% 20.8, SwStr % 9.1.

General Thoughts:
The 190+ innings, and 32 starts made by Chen were huge. I loved that Chen was so willing to work off, and attack with the fastball (he threw his 4 seam fastball 59.6% of the time). While he struggled in September (0-3, 5.90 era), overall after the All-Star break he was 5-6, with a 4.12 era. As that production is close to his overall production for the year, that shows me the league was not adjusting to him as the year progressed. He also had more K’s per ip over the 2nd half. He did let up a fair amount of homers, but he did a pretty good job all year of limiting the damage in-front of those home runs. I don’t know if Chen has any further ceiling, but I don’t believe it is too much to ask him to replicate his 2012 numbers.

Tillman 2012:
9-3, 2.93 era, 86 ip, 66 hits, 12 hr’s, 24 bb’s, 66 k’s, .639 OPS against, 0.55 G/F.
xFIP 4.34, K% 19.0, BB% 6.9, LD% 21, SwStr % 8.1.

General Thoughts:
In addition to his recent work on Matusz, Jeff Long also had an interesting review of Tillman prior to the ALDS.

Tillman worked hard last Winter, and turned heads during Spring. He was solid enough at AAA (8-8, 3.63 era), but he was not overwhelming the International League. However, his insertion into the Major League rotation on July 4th paid immediate dividends. After a 4-1 July, he was again productive in August, and was extremely strong in September. You have to love that Tillman was effective to hitters on both sides of the plate (.701 OPS vs. 120 RH hitters, .601 OPS vs. 199 LH hitters). Looking at his numbers, the one ‘concern’ that jumps out to me is the relatively paltry G/F ratio. Texas Leaguers says he used the 4 seam fastball (at an average velocity of 92.2), 48.1% of the time. His average velocity on the same pitch in ’11, was 89.3. With what he accomplished over his 15 Major League starts this year, it is hard to imagine a scenario where a healthy Tillman does not begin 2013 in the rotation. Turning just 25 next April, the future is again bright for Tillman.

Gonzalez 2012:
9-4, 3.25 era, 105.1 ip, 92 hits, 13 hr’s, 35 bb’s, 77 k’s, .694 OPS against, 0.58 G/F.
xFIP 4.63, K% 17.7, BB% 8.1, LD% 22.4, SwStr % 8.7.

General Thoughts:
Last week, BSL’s Tucker Blair provided an excellent profile on Gonzalez.

As Tucker detailed, it really was a remarkable season for Gonzalez. I have to admit that it probably took me longer than it should have, to trust what my eyes were seeing. In his 15 regular season starts, 10 times he went at-least 6 innings and allowed 2 er or less. I think his change-up was extremely impressive, and a true plus pitch. Between what he did at Tampa Bay during his last regular season start, and in New York during the ALDS; it is hard to project a 2013 rotation of internal options and not include Gonzalez. By the end of the year, I was very comfortable with Gonzalez taking the ball. I generally felt Gonzalez was going to keep the O’s in the game. While I think it would be fair to have reservations of what you will get from him next year as a starter, he should get the opportunity. If his consistency is reduced next year in the rotation; I’ll feel excellent about him as a swing-starter / long-relief option.

Britton 2012:
5-3, 5.07 era, 60.1 ip, 61 hits, 6 hr’s, 32 bb’s, 53 k’s, .756 OPS against, 1.58 G/F.
xFIP 4.05, K% 19.6, BB% 11.9, LD% 16, SwStr % 9.5.

General Thoughts:
Britton arrived in Spring Training still feeling the lingering left-shoulder inflammation  that he felt as the 2011 season ended. An MRI would reveal no structural damage, but he would still receive two rounds of Platet Rich Plasma therapy in late March. His first Minor League start of the year would be 5/26, and he stayed in the Minors through 7/12. In his time at Norfolk, he struggled with consistency, and control. That continued when he ascended back to Baltimore in mid-July. Over his last start of July, and first two starts of August; Britton allowed 17 er over 13.1 ip. During those starts, there were a lot of O’s fans who believed those poor results were providing indication he was still hurt. My contention at the time was that his problems were a result of not throwing his 2 seam fastball enough, and not throwing it for strikes enough of the time when he did. During those starts he threw the 2 seam fastball 26.5% of the time, and threw them for a strike just 57.1% of the time. He then followed that horrific stretch, with four of the best starts of any O’s pitcher in 2012. During that August 18th – September 4th run, Britton pitched 28.2 innings, allowing 21 hits, 3 er, 7 bb’s, with 29 k’s, and 43 ground balls. Throwing the 2 seam 32.6% of the time during those games, he threw them for a strike 66.2% of the time. He looked like he was going to be a factor down the stretch, but then got pounded in back-to-back starts by New York and Oakland (on the 15th of September), and was basically shut-down for the year – aside from a 1 inning relief outing vs. Tampa Bay October 3rd. As long as Britton has no setbacks with his shoulder, I believe he has to be in the mix for a rotation spot next Spring, but there will not be a spot waiting for him. He will have to be strong starting in the Grapefruit League to come North. What I continue to like most about Britton, is that not a lot has to go right for him to succeed. What I mean by that, is as long as he can throw his 2 seam for strikes – he will eat up bats, get grounders, and be successful. He threw 154 innings as a Major League Rookie. I’d like to think he could match or exceed that next year without further issue to his shoulder.

Matusz 2012:
6-10, 4.87 era, 98 ip, 112 hits, 15 hr’s, 41 bb’s, 81 k’s, .817 OPS against, 0.75 G/F.
xFIP 4.54, K% 18.4, BB% 9.3, LD% 19.7, SwStr % 8.1.

General Thoughts:
Long’s article on Matusz nailed a lot of my sentiments. When the O’s decided to move Matusz to the bullpen, my feeling was that it was a temporary move to help a contending team, and that Matusz would definitively be back starting next Spring if still part of the O’s organization. At this point, I’m not so sure. While I would like to see Matusz given another opportunity to start, Matusz was so strong out of the bullpen, that you have to wonder if that might be where he stays. The fact that Matusz stated in numerous interviews that he enjoyed the bullpen, because he found it easier to focus (knowing he could get into each game) is also something that will be considered. Like Tillman, Matusz worked hard over last Winter and there was shown physical improvement when he got to Spring Training. He is going to need to repeat that work again this off-season. When he was drafted, he was drafted as a guy that could throw 4 pitches for strikes. While I believe most of Matusz’s 2011 issues were due to health, I feel his problems as a starter in 2012 were mostly the result of consistently falling behind and working backwards. As a relief pitcher he was able to come in, go right at hitters, and attack. Of course he was doing so mostly as a match-up lefty, and facing a minimal amount of RH hitters, who had a .932 OPS against Matusz during 281 ab’s on the year. Can he capture the mentality he showed as a reliever and carry it over as a starter? I’m convinced that if he pitches off of his fastball he can be successful in that capacity.

Note: Discussion of this post can be found here.