Baltimore Orioles Top 15 Prospects Prior to the Amateur Draft

With two months of play in the books this 2015 season, Baltimore Sports and Life provides an updated ranking of the best prospects in the Orioles system prior to the June Amateur Draft (June 8th – 10th). As the O’s hold four of the first 102 overall picks, there will be plenty of transition to this list in the coming weeks.

As we stated when we last went through this exercise (July 2014) it should be noted this is mainly for discussion purposes only. We are utilizing public evaluations on these players, along with stats (which we readily acknowledge only tells half the story at the MiL level), to provide a general overview of the system. We aren’t out scouting these players on our own, nor are we privy to the working thoughts of the organization itself.

Disagree with our rankings? No problem, we are certainly not married to them. Let us know what you think we have wrong, and where you would differ.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

#1 – Dylan Bundy 

DOB: 11/15/92
Throws: R
2015 Stats AA Bowie: 0-3, 3.68 era, 22 ip, 21 hits, 5 bb’s, 25 k’s

May 2014 Thoughts on Bundy: Last Thursday (the 29th), Bundy threw 3 innings in an extended Spring Training game. He’s on the verge of getting back to a mound in the Minors (maybe end of June?). The first thing you will want to see, is Bundy being able to take the ball every 5th day. Then you will want to see consistently improving stuff. He went into 2013 as basically the best prospect in the game. For me, he continues to be the guy with the highest ceiling in the system. In 2012, Bundy spent time at Delmarva, Frederick, and Bowie before reaching the Majors for 1.2 innings. Including that brief ML work, he threw a total 105.1 innings for the year. He then missed all of 2013. Best case scenario seems to be maybe 50-60 innings here in 2014. How many innings is going to be capable of throwing in ’15? BSL has spoken to several analysts the last few Months about Bundy. Those analysts include Callis, Baseball Prospectus‘ Nick Faleris, and Bleacher Report’s Will Carroll. An understandable consensus opinion is that everything you do as an organization, should be with Bundy’s long-term benefits in-mind. I respect, and agree with that mind-set. However, I do continue to think that if Bundy gets in 50-60 innings of work at the MiL level over July and August (and his performance and stuff continues to improve); that we might see him in Baltimore in September. Not sure how the O’s would use him. Maybe as a reliever in short outings? The questions would be do you want him getting up and down as a reliever (something he has not done)? Can you use him in more scripted appearances if you are competing for the post-season? Those questions are TBD, but I’m fairly confident that if he is healthy and performing; the O’s are going to find a way to utilize him over that last Month. Of course in the scheme of things, that means very little in-terms of what you are hoping to get out of Bundy long-term.

July 2014 Thoughts on Bundy: It’s exciting to see him back on a mound, and it is great that his stuff is already back to the level it is. I have every expectation that over time (into next year), he will fully find all of his prior arsenal. The current lack of success at Frederick means very little, other than it it further decreases the minimal odds which existed of Bundy possibly contributing to the O’s in some form in September. Of course, if he gets hot down the stretch; who knows? Looking towards ’15, the bigger question is going to remain how many innings is he going to be capable of next year? Right now he’s thrown 26.2 innings in ’14, after missing ’13, and pitching just over 100 in ’12. Even if he is healthy all of ’15, is he going to be able to throw 130+ combined (MiLB / ML) innings?

May 2015 Thoughts on Bundy: The MRI earlier in the week revealed no structural damage to his shoulder, but he has still been prescribed anti-inflammatory medication and a couple of weeks of rest. Fingers crossed, hopefully not a big deal. On the mound this year, his stuff has been rebounding to his prior form. If he gets back from this latest shoulder soreness, the things to watch are him building back consistency, and his innings. Right before this set-back, Showalter was hinting that Bundy could be called-up to the O’s bullpen in June. Baseball Prospectus’ Tucker Blair saw Bundy in April. I was disappointed by the O’s stated plan to limit Bundy to 100 total innings this year. I’m still hoping he can finish the year at around the 130 level.

#2 – Hunter Harvey 

DOB: 12/9/94
Throws: R
2014 Stats Low A Delmarva: 7-5, 3.18 era, 82 ip, 58 hits, 5 hr’s, 32 bb’s, 101 k’s

May 2014 Thoughts on Harvey: What’s not to like? Last year’s 1st round pick continues to impress all who see him. ESPN’s Keith Law recently listed Harvey as one of his Top 10 prospects in the game. With Harvey’s pedigree , it is not a surprise that he has not been overwhelmed as a professional. Answering my question above, the only ‘concern’ you currently see are the walks. Looking at the hits per IP, and the K’s; my takeaway is that the South Atlantic League is not particularly challenging for Harvey. Clearly he is very young, and you can take your time with him. However, if he is not going to be challenged at Delmarva, I’d like to see him moved to Frederick and ee what he can do in the Carolina League. A bigger question might be how many innings does he get for the year?

July 2014 Thoughts on Harvey: There are some people beginning to pick on Harvey a bit, but it seems evident he’s established himself as one of the game’s high-end prospects. A pretty much ideal first full-season of pro ball.

May 2015 Thoughts on Harvey:  Certainly been a tough couple of Months for him. After being shut-down to end ’14, he received an all-clear in November for a normal off-season. Then in March he sustained a fibula fracture. Finally after throwing in an extended ST game May 5th, he was shut down again with elbow soreness. Harvey’s May 13th MRI didn’t show any structural damage, but he will get a second opinion. Had everything gone right for Harvey this year, it was within the realm of reason that he could have ended ’15 at Bowie, and been on pace to join the O’s sometime in ’16. Showalter has been quoted as saying he expects Harvey to pitch this season. If so, how many innings will he get in? You would gladly take that concern with his innings, if that means he is back on a mound this season. Obviously it will be disappointing if the second opinion determines surgery is necessary.

#3 – Jomar Reyes

DOB: 2/20/97
Bats: R
Throws: R
2015 Stats Low A Delmarva: .288 baa, 2 hr’s, 18 rbi, 11 doubles, 3 triples, 12 bb’s, 37 k’s, .773 OPS

May 2015 Thoughts on Reyes: Just 18 years old, the Shorebirds 3rd baseman is more than holding his own in the Low A South Atlantic League. My understanding is that there is question of his ability to stay at the hot-corner, but it’s his bat which his going to allow him to move up through the system. He’s already closing in on the games played and total ab’s he received  last year in the Gulf Coast League, so it will be interesting to see how he responds to the additional playing time over the next few months.

#4 – Chance Sisco 

DOB: 2/24/95
Bats: L
Throws: R
2014 Stats Low A Delmarva: .347 baa, 4 hr’s, 50 rbi, 21 doubles, 1 triple, 25 bb’s, 55 k’s, .875 OPS
2015 Stats High A Frederick: 28 ab’s, .143 / .250 / .143

May 2014 Thoughts on Sisco: A 2nd round pick last year for the Birds, Sisco is a prospect with real promise. Like his teammate Josh Hart, Sisco is a 19 year old playing full-season ball in the South Atlantic League. Unlike Hart, Sisco is currently producing, coming off a very strong May. It will be interesting to see how he finishes. A full-year is a lot of baseball for a young player, especially for a Catcher when they go through the dog days of Summer.

July 2014 Thoughts on Sisco: I think it has been established that Sisco can hit South Atlantic League pitching! Will be interesting to hear reviews of his Catching ability. Moving up Frederick for the remainder of ’14 makes sense to me.

May 2015 Thoughts on Sisco: 28 ab’s on the season pretty much tells the story. One trip to the DL for a broken ring finger, and a second trip for a strained oblique. He played the 28th, 29th, and 31st since coming back off the DL.

#5 – Mike Wright

DOB: 1/3/90
Throws: R
2015 Stats AAA Norfolk: 3-0, 2.64 era, 30.2 ip, 25 hits, 2 hr’s, 9 bb’s, 30 k’s
2015 Stats MLB: 2-0, 1.40 era, 19.1 ip, 13 hits, 2 hr’s, 3 bb’s, 12 k’s

May 2014 Thoughts on Wright: In ’13, Wright was 11-3 with 3.26 era at AA Bowie. He got off to a strong start in April to begin ’14. In May, things fell apart as he had a 7.85 era over 6 starts. Supposed to be a strong arm that relies on his sinker. The projection has always been that he’s likely to be a reliever at the Major League level. I think the system should make a decision on Wright. If you think he has a chance to be more than a fringe ML starter, then continuing to start him is fine. If his ML ceiling as a starter is limited; then move him to the bullpen now. Get him comfortable being used in that capacity, maxing out a couple of innings at a time. I’d rather him be used like that personally, and think if he was – he could potentially be available to help the O’s bullpen at some point this year. One note, his splits vs. RH hitters are poor right now. However he is being used, that has to improve.

July 2014 Thoughts on Wright:  Ouch. RH hitters are batting .351 against Wright. When next year begins, he will be 25. Wright and the system should try and remove this season from memory, and start clean next year with him as a reliever.

May 2015 Thoughts on Wright: The only thing you can do in life is take advantage of opportunities when you have the chance to do so. Wright is doing that right now for the Birds, and you have to respect that. I still see his future in the bigs as a reliever, but he has had to open some eyes some. Despite him being in the Majors right now, I’m including him in this prospect list as I expect him to return to the Minors at some point. If he does goes back to AAA and builds off what he has showed here in the bigs; he could position himself as a potential starter to begin ’16. BSL O’s Analyst Jeff Long looked at Wright further here.

#6 – Branden Kline

DOB: 9/29/91
Throws: R
2015 Stats AA Bowie: 3-3, 3.66 era, 39.1 ip, 35 hits, 4 hr’s, 19 bb’s, 27 k’s

July 2014 Thoughts on Kline: The Maryland native was the O’s 2nd round pick out of the University of Virginia in 2012. Most reviews I’ve seen on Kline indicate his future is in the bullpen. Right now, he’s a 22 year old having success starting in High A.  The O’s will probably continue to have him starts until he proves that is not the best utilization for him. Getting him additional innings and experience. If he was moved to the bullpen, he’s likely the type of arm that could fly through the system though. Last year he had just 35.1 innings for Delmarva. The question the rest of ’14 for Kline is probably how many innings can he give?

May 2015 Thoughts on Kline: Kiley McDaniel from FanGraphs was leading the charge on Kline this Spring, saying there were comps to Chris Archer. In his season debut, he was working in the 95-98 range. After elbow discomfort, Kline had an MRI in Baltimore on the 23rd. He also met with Dr. James Andrews whose evaluation matched the O’s. Kline is going to have a Platelet-Rich Plasma injection, and is scheduled to rest for 6 weeks. Fingers crossed that surgery will not be required.

#7 – Christian Walker

DOB: 3/28/91
Bats: R
Throws: R
2014 Stats AAA Norfolk: .249 baa, 2 hr’s, 12 rbi, 12 doubles, 12 bb’s, 44 k’s, .642 OPS

May 2014 Thoughts on Walker: We mentioned above in the Ohlman profile speaking to Jim Callis. Callis also commented on Walker, saying he thought Walker’s upside was that of a RH Lyle Overbay. That’s not a knock – Overbay has had 5,000 ab’s in the Majors – but it does illustrate that Walker’s overall upside is seen as limited. Give Walker credit for doing everything he can to change perceptions though. He’s a 23 year old raking in the Eastern League. That counts for something.

July 2014 Thoughts on Walker: He had a big year at the AA level, and is now getting AAA ab’s. Whatever his upside is, he has controlled what he can control. I’d be interested in hearing a bit more about his athleticism. He could make himself that much more valuable if he could play a ‘Steve Pearce’ esque LF.

May 2015 Thoughts on Walker: As shown above, we talked last year about Walker controlling what he could control. So far this year, he’s struggling at the AAA level. If he followed up his 2014 with a monster 2015, you could have reasonably suggested Walker as potential option for the O’s in 2016. Now? Norfolk is known as a tough place for hitters, but that production is so limited – it is hard to imagine the O’s looking to find room for him next year, even if he rebounds over the next few months.

#8 – Mike Yastrzemski

DOB: 8/23/90
Bats: L
Throws: L
2015 AA Bowie: .278 baa, 1 hr, 21 rbi, 15 doubles, 2 triples, 21 bb’s, 38 k’s, .740 OPS

July 2014 Thoughts on Yastrzemski:  In a system where there has not been much production in 2014, Yastrzemski’s season stands out. Orioles Player Development Director Brian Graham commented on Yastrzemski in a MASN article today. One knock – while the K/BB ratio improved at Frederick, it was poor at Low A Delmarva. Says something about the system as a whole, that one of the players you are currently most enthusiastic about, struggled in that capacity at the lowest full-season level and was still advanced. In the article linked above, Graham compared Yastrzemski to Nate McLouth. I would think Yastrzemski would be a candidate for the AFL.

May 2015 Thoughts on Yastrzemski: The walks look good. The gap power looks good. Going to need him to find the seats a bit more often to increase my interest.

#9 – Dariel Alvarez 

DOB: 11/7/88
Bats: R
Throws: R
2015 Stats AAA Norfolk: .239 baa, 6 hr’s, 21 rbi, 5 doubles, 1 triple, 4 bb’s, 20 k’s, .632 OPS

May 2014 Thoughts on Alvarez: What jumps out to you first is that Alvarez is turning 26. As with Urrutia, you have to factor in his age and Cuban experience when evaluating his MiL production. That said, Alvarez is doing what he needs to do. He is performing, and should be on the radar of O’s prospects. Most evaluations I’ve seen of Alvarez point to him being a reserve OF at the ML level. It’s understood that there are often prospects with higher ceilings in the Eastern League vs. the International League, but I’d still like to see him moved to AAA. In the IL he would be facing pitchers with further experience, and more refined breaking stuff. I think that would provide a clearer indication of where Alvarez is as a player.

July 2014 Thoughts on Alvarez: Alvarez did not maintain his early production at Bowie, but it was a productive 359 ab’s at the AA level. He now gets to finish the year in Norfolk, and we will see how that goes. As stated above, I think he’s potentially a reserve OF at the ML level.

May 2015 Thoughts on Alvarez: It was a nice Spring Training for Alvarez. He showed some pop, showed off his arm. He definitely had Showalter believing he could contribute to a ML roster. That makes his 197 ab’s to begin 2015 that much more disappointing. At his fairly advanced age you wouldn’t get carried away with things even if he was dominating. The fact that he is struggling just increases the skepticism that already exists with him.

#10 – Zach Davies

DOB: 2/7/93
Throws: R
2015 Stats AAA Norfolk: 3-3, 2.96 era, 48.2 ip, 46 hits, 0 hr’s, 18 bb’s, 44 k’s

May 2014 Thoughts on Davies: Selected in the 26th round of the 2011 Draft, Davies had a productive 2013. In 26 starts for Frederick, Davies was 7-9 with a 3.69 era over 148.2 ip. Advancing to the Eastern League, his hits per IP, and K’s per IP look good. Listed at 6′, 150 lbs, he looks a bit frail.

July 2014 Thoughts on Davies: It’s been a nice year for him, if anything I might be underselling him a bit. Maybe he should be a candidate to join Brady Anderson’s off-season training program?

May 2015 Thoughts on Davies: He has taken incremental steps annually, and continues to perform. He looks to be another one of the O’s internal options that could potentially be a back of the rotation ML starter; or help the bullpen. He still looks like he could use a burger and a shake.

#11 –  Patrick Connaughton

DOB:  1/6/93
Throws: R
2014 4th round pick, 121st overall

May 2015 Thoughts on Connaughton: The two sport star helped Notre Dame to a big season on the basketball court. At the NBA combine, he had a 44 inch vertical, and a 37.5 inch standing vertical. That showing has his NBA prospects on the rise, and by his own admission; he’s 100% basketball at the moment. Talent wise, he is one of the O’s more interesting prospects. As such, I hope his NBA dreams don’t come to fruition in the next couple of weeks.

#12 – Tyler Wilson

DOB: 9/25/89
Throws: R
2015 Stats AAA Norfolk: 2-4, 3.29 era, 41 ip, 43 hits, 3 hr’s, 7 bb’s, 32 k’s
2015 Stats MLB: 1-1, 3.38 era, 8 ip, 10 hits, 0 hr’s, 1 bb, 2 k’s

May 2015 Thoughts on Wilson: Wilson’s already had his first cup of coffee in the bigs this year, including a spot start vs. Chicago. I didn’t come away overwhelmed with his stuff, but I’m excited about him representing yet another internal option capable of helping the ML staff in some capacity. A cheap Middle Reliever who is capable of extending innings has plenty of appeal. As we said with Wright, now that Wilson is back at AAA – you want to see him build off the ML audition.

#13 – Mychal Givens

DOB: 5/13/90
Throws: R
2015 Stats AA Bowie: 2-1, 1.21 era, 10 saves, 29.2 ip, 20 hits, 9 bb’s, 42 k’s

May 2015 Thoughts on Givens: Have to be happy for Givens, finding success after being converted back to a pitcher after his time at SS. The numbers indicate he is overwhelming hitters in the Eastern League. He should absolutely be an option for the O’s bullpen in the near term.

#14 – Josh Hart

DOB: 10/2/94
Bats: L
Throws: L
2015 Stats High A Frederick:  .246 baa, 0 hr, 4 rbi, 3 bb’s, 10 k’s, 4 sb’s, .530 OPS, 69 ab’s

May 2014 Thoughts on Hart: It would be crazy to bury a 19 year old kid for 143 poor at-bats in the South Atlantic League. He’s very young, and he is getting his first experience of full-season play. There is plenty of time for him to develop. That said, the only reason he is still among the O’s Top 10 prospects is that the O’s drafted him 37th overall last year. 1 XBH in 143 ab’s, and that walk to k ratio is about as poor as it gets. It also should be mentioned that he did nothing last year in the Gulf Coast League. The rest of the way, you are looking for month-to-month progression.

July 2014 Thoughts on Hart: He’s currently back in the GCL, and is 4 for 24 in his time there. Presumably he was moved back to produce and get some confidence. It’s also an indictment on his play to date. (EDIT: I missed that he had surgery for a torn meniscus, and is just getting back.) Selected as high as he was, he’s an important player for this system, and his first full year of Pro Ball has been horrible. You obviously don’t give up on him though. Hart is going to need to work very hard this Winter, and be ready (physically, and mentally) to produce. Whatever the organization can do to help that, they should.

May 2015 Thoughts on Hart: I think the Baltimore Orioles Player Development Department has to be somewhat embarrassed by promoting Hart to Frederick, after the issues Hart had last year in Delmarva. Based on his production, Hart doesn’t belong in this listing of Top Prospects. I’m including him solely based on where he was drafted. In 552 MiL ab’s, Hart is slugging under .300. He needs to show something positive in the next few months to sustain any optimism for him going forward.

#15 – Alex Murphy

DOB: 10/5/94
Bats: R
Throws: R
2015 Stats Low A Delmarva: .258 baa, 2 hr’s, 28 rbi, 8 doubles, 2 triples, 11 bb’s, 31 k’s, .737 OPS

May 2015 Thoughts on Murphy: He’s been out since May 15th with a strained groin. The local product is showing some promise at the plate, with his production being reasonable for his age and level. Have not seen an update on his defensive ability behind the dish for sometime.

Honorable Mention – Trey Mancini

DOB: 3/18/92
Bats: R
Throws: R
2015 High A Frederick: .312 baa, 7 hr’s, 30 rbi, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 8 bb’s, 35 k’s, .846 OPS

May 2014 Thoughts on Mancini: Mancini was the O’s 8th round pick last year out of Notre Dame. Last year he had 256 ab’s at Aberdeen, and hit for average. That average has continued in the South Atlantic League. The doubles are good to see; but he currently has 4 homers in 473 professional ab’s. Not what you want to see from a 1st baseman. Frankly, the average is only so impressive as well. An advanced College bat should be hitting for average in the NY / Penn & South Atlantic Leagues. The walk to k ratio is also concerning. Mancini being in the listing of Top 15 prospects is less about what he has achieved, and more the current limitations of the system.

July 2014 Thoughts on Mancini: Good to see him moved up to High A, want to see him finish strong over the next 6 weeks.

May 2015 Thoughts on Mancini: In a system devoid of much interesting position talent, credit Mancini for hitting. Hopefully he can improve the bb to k ratio in the coming months. I give the edge to Murphy head-to-head simply for Murphy due to the age difference.

Honorable Mention – Oliver Drake

DOB: 1/13/87
Throws: R
2015 Stats AAA Norfolk: 0-1, 0.96 era, 8 saves, 18.2 ip, 10 hits, 2 er, 1 hr, 4 bb’s, 30 k’s
2015 Stats MLB: 0-0, 2.57 era, 7 ip, 5 hits, 2 er, 1 hr, 4 b’s, 6 k’s

May 2015 Thoughts on Drake: The limited ML sample shows that ML hitters are not expanding their zones as much as the International League hitters he was seeing earlier in the year. Yet another guy the O’s have produced this year with the ability to contribute to the ML bullpen. Not sure he will stay in the Majors much longer in the immediate, but he could be a guy shuttled back-and-forth most of the year. Jeff Long gave a larger write-up for Baseball Prospectus here.

Others To Note:
Tim Berry
Parker Bridwell
Glynn Davis
Drew Dosch
Brian Gonzalez
Davis Hess
Mitch Horacek
Adrian Marin
Ariel Miranda
Hector Veloz