On Sunday afternoon, the Baltimore Orioles ended their 2014 regular season with a 1-0 victory against the Toronto Blue Jays. With the win, the American League East Division Champions ended the year with a 96-66 record.

This 2014 season represented the 60th anniversary of the Orioles arrival in Baltimore, and for the 11th time – the organization has reached the post-season. On Thursday, the O’s begin pursuit of their 4th World Championship, when they host the AL Central Division Champion Detroit Tigers in Game 1 of their American League Divisional Series.

Before previewing the ALDS, let us look back at how we arrived at this point. Realistically we could arbitrarily start with start with the hires of Manager Buck Showalter, and/or Executive Vice-President of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette. We could look at how the core players comprising this roster had been acquired. However, lets use the end of the 2013 season as a starting point.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

The 2013 Season Ends

Coming off of the O’s first post-season appearance since 1997, there was anticipation for Baltimore’s 2013 season. Earmarked for significant regression by many, the Orioles finished over .500 for the second consecutive year. Manny Machado played through his first full-season in the big leagues, and was awarded the Platinum Glove for being the best defensive player in the game. Chris Davis followed-up a productive 2012, with MVP caliber numbers.

Many O’s fans were encouraged by the organization finishing over .500 for the second-straight season; but 85 wins was only good for a tie for 3rd place in the AL East; with Divisional foes Tampa Bay and Boston both reaching the post-season. When the O’s year ended September 29th, they were forced to watch the post-season with the rest of us in October.

My primary takeaway was that it was difficult to categorize the season as a success or a failure. It was mostly a meeting of expectations. They won 8 less games than in 2012, and did not return to the post-season; but they played meaningful games in September – even if the results of those games were not ideal.

I had been comfortable with the quiet 2012 off-season. As the 2013 season off-season was beginning, I was trumpeting the idea that help was needed. I thought there was a core group the O’s could win with, but that they needed to be augmented with help at DH, and in the rotation (and perhaps 2nd and LF if I was being greedy).

With the rotation, I wrote about generally being comfortable with what was coming back. Believing they were capable of keeping the O’s in most games. What I wanted was either additional depth to the staff, or an arm with the upside of potentially helping to anchor things at the front.

There was acknowledgement on my end that signing either Jose Abreu, or Mashiro Tanaka were pipe dreams; but I continued to carry the torch for both. Later in the off-season I would advocate 2 year deals for both Bartolo Colon, and Scott Kazmir.

You win some, you lose some.

Last October O’s fans were wondering about numerous things.

Would McLouth return?
Would Roberts?
Would Feldman?
Would Markakis rebound from a miserable 2013?
Would Wieters’ innings behind the plate be reduced?
Should Wieters be moved?
Would the O’s consider moving Hardy?
What was going to happen with Johnson?
Might the O’s pursue a Free Agent like Robinson Cano, Shin-Soo Choo, or Jacoby Ellsbury?

The Hot Stove Fails To Warm

By the middle of October, the Hot Stove was beginning to percolate elsewhere (Abreu signed with Chicago October 18th), but the water had not yet begun to boil in Baltimore.

The biggest move to-date, had been the hiring of Pitching Coach Dave Wallace October 16th.

Duquette had appeared on WBAL Radio and stated his desire to improve both the quality and depth of the rotation; while addressing the on-base % woes of the lineup.

On Halloween, Boston was celebrating the World Title they had won the night before. When San Francisco won the 2012 Title, I felt nothing. It’s not a team the O’s compete against with any regularity. The Giants, and their fans, 3000 miles and a league away. Watching ‘Red Sox Nation’ enjoy their 3rd Championship in 9 years, and seeing their fans talk about redemption (from their poor 2012 season, and the ghosts their organization continued to chase from their September 2011 collapse) left me sick.

Any solace in the idea that it was only the Red Sox’s 3rd Title since 1918, was eliminated with the stark reminder that their success as an organization in the past decade – matched what the Orioles had accomplished as an organization in their totality.

That had me fired up, and wanting to see improvement around the core that existed. However, I was cognizant of the fact that the O’s were still Months away from the arrival of Pitchers & Catchers. The wording I used said, “I don’t care if the O’s win the Winter. What I want to see is the O’s address the issues that they have self-identified as needing to be improved.”

hotstove

November Through The Winter Meetings

In early November, Showalter was interviewed by MASN and was on the same page as Duquette publicly about wanting to see the on-base % improved. One of Showalter’s comments was wanting to see improvement from what existed. Maybe an early incarnation of the oft-quoted, “We like our guys,” mantra that Buck has used this year?

BSL’s Sports Tonight with Rob & Mike spoke with Brittany Ghiroli from MLB.com, on a number of off-season topics. An interesting discussion point there was the idea of trading Wieters. (FOX Sports Ken Rosenthal had reported that the O’s were willing to consider trading Wieters.)This led to a bit of back-and-forth between Rob (Shields) and Ghiroli, on if Wieters was traded – who would catch, and could the O’s sustain that loss? Shields espoused the opinion at the time that the O’s could overcome losing Wieters (reminding you had to factor in who would be coming back in return, and who ever else was added). That said, Ghiroli was certainly not alone in her convictions, and I’m sure Shields would not have anticipated the level of production that Joseph, and Hundley provided in-replace of the injured Wieters. Conceptually though, Shields was proven correct.

Other discussion topics that night included prospective extensions for Wieters, Davis, and Machado.

What a difference a year can make.

Later that week, Nick Faleris from Baseball Prospectus joined Rob & Mike. Faleris made a comparison of the Orioles young righty Kevin Gausman, and the St. Louis Cardinals Michael Wacha, who had emerged in the 2013 Playoffs. During this ’14 season, that comparison has been made many times by O’s fans  – all hoping that Gausman could be a similar X-Factor for the Orange & Black Birds in this forthcoming post-season.

Faleris also stated his belief that Schoop could be an adequate defensive 2nd baseman. That has certainly been proven to be accurate, with I think Schoop showing this year to be better defensively than the reputation which has preceded him.

As a site, BSL’s Orioles Analysts were writing about possible FA additions. Kazmir and Matt Garza received votes. As did Gavin Floyd as a reclamation project.

Me? I was on the idea that the O’s needed to spend around $115M (to keep their existing group together, and add to that group), or be willing to make larger changes.  My overall point was less about salary, and more about mind-set. That if the O’s were not going to be trading Hardy, and Wieters, and Johnson (at that point, still an Oriole) that the obvious goal for 2014 was winning it all. That if winning it all was the goal, the only way for the O’s to augment around the existing core of talent, was to spend more. That if you were not going to spend more, and were not going to trade what you have; that you were effectively just treading water as an organization.

As I said above, you win some, you lose some.

By the time Thanksgiving had come and gone, angst was increasing amongst the Orioles fan-base over the general quiet coming from The Warehouse.

The fans were not just upset that the O’s had not opened-up their check-book for the games biggest stars, but wondering aloud why the team had not been involved on reasonable deals for guys like Dan Haren, Tim Hudson, David Murphy, and Cuban import Alexander Guerrero. (The preference from Haren and Hudson to stay in the National League, and their preference to go West should be noted.)

To be fair to the O’s, the team was working, but the acquisitions of Brad Brach, and Cord Phelps were not exactly appeasing the masses.

There was discussion to be found on Bud Norris. Should he stay in the O’s rotation, should he be in the bullpen? The general consensus seemed to be that people liked his arm, and thought he could eat innings as a league-average back-of-the-rotation starter. That unless you added better bets to force him from the rotation, he deserved the opportunity to start. The potential for him (or Miguel Gonzalez) to be an impact reliever was on the minds of many though. In large part, because there was growing sentiment that Jim Johnson needed to be moved.

On December 1st, BSL Orioles Analyst (and recent Baseball Prospectus hire) Jeff Long wrote an article, trying to determine what Johnson was worth on the trade market. On December 2nd, Johnson was shipped to Oakland for Jemile Weeks, and a Player To Be Named Later. Johnson had very strong years in 2011, and 2012; but had regressed in 2013 (despite saving 50+ games for the second consecutive season). There was acceptance among Baltimore fans that his salary could be better utilized elsewhere, but there was also surprise from many that he brought back such a minimal return. Duquette would come out in the following days, and state the obvious – that the O’s needed to better allocate their dollars.

In subsequent interviews with MASN, Duquette was very up-front with his intentions. There was no ambiguity, even with him using that ‘hard to decipher’ marbles for salary analogy. Despite the reports that existed of each MLB team poised to take in a much larger stake of National TV revenue, the O’s payroll would remain relatively flat compared to 2013. There was about $82M on the books, meaning there was roughly $18M available to spend. For any O’s fan that didn’t understand why Johnson had been moved, it was spelled out as clearly as possible with these comments. (For the record, the 2014 O’s Payroll would end up at $101M.)

Despite Duquette illuminating the public that he was operating under a budget, others saw the move as meddling from Orioles Majority Owner Peter Angelos.  The Sun actually ran an interview with Angelos, with Angelos denying his fingerprints were on the trade. Angelos reiterated that roster composition was under the sole jurisdiction of Duquette and Showalter. The added comment that Angelos had reconfigured an office at The Warehouse for his use, helped stoke those flames further.

On December 5th, FOX Sports Jon Morosi reported that the O’s were interested in Choo, Nelson Cruz, and Ubaldo Jimenez. That report was met with much skepticism from the fan-base.

On December 6th, McLouth signed with the Nationals, and the O’s signed Ryan Webb. Profiling somewhat similarly to Johnson, the Webb additional was relatively well received by itself. O’s fans just wanted to see ‘more.’

ESPN Analyst (and Orioles fan) Dan Szymborski joined BSL Radio that day,for one of his regular appearances. He had two quotes that day which resonated with me personally, and I believe other Baltimore fans.

The first comment was Szymborski referencing The Simpsons to provide an analogy to the O’s. In the episode with the character Hank Scorpio, Bart is quoted as saying, “Let me get this straight: we’re behind the rest of our class and we’re going to catch up to them by going slower than they are? Coo Coo!”

This was a clear general illustration of the what the O’s approach seemed to be.

The second thought that stood out from Dan was him stating, “I  can support the O’s trying and not succeeding, I can not support the O’s not trying.”

Many of us were feeling similar thoughts.

The Winter Meetings officially kicked off Monday, December 9th, and ended that Thursday. On the 8th, Duquette spoke with MLB Radio.  Duquette touted the signing of Webb. He mentioned Peguero as a potential replacement for McLouth. He noted that the O’s disagreed with the posting system with Nippon Professional Baseball (Meaning they were definitively out on Tanaka). Duquette also said the O’s were interested in a LH LF, DH, and Pitching.

ESPN’s Jim Bowden linked the O’s to Andre Either, and Raul Ibanez; and passed along that Duquette had told him that the O’s would add some experienced players prior to leaving the Meetings.

Ghiroli noted that the O’s were ‘aggressively’ pursuing Jimenez, and Ervin Santana.

By Day 3 of the Meetings, there was palatable frustration showing from the O’s and Duquette that more had not been accomplished. It was evident in his comments that they had anticipated significant progress, and were disappointed when it looked like they would be leaving with nothing official.

By this time, Scott Feldman had signed with Houston, and it was becoming clear that retaining Brian Roberts was low on the priority list for the O’s Front Office.

Alejandro De Aza was mentioned on the BSL Board as a low-cost LF option, that the O’s could look to trade for.

The most interesting story at the time, was the first rumors of a deal with Grant Balfour starting on December 10th.  (They had spent time that week also talking to Chris Perez, and John Axford.) The deal with Balfour – 2 yrs, $14M – was officially announced on December 17th. That $7M in AAV was not particularly well received at BSL. FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron made a reasonable argument for the contract itself being a fair price, but the article lacked context in accurately describing the O’s overall budget, and how that signing made sense in-terms of allocation of resources. Other articles from around the web – ESPN, Sports Illustrated, SB Nation – struck a similar chord.

On December 18th, it was announced that the O’s had acquired David Lough from the Royals for Danny Valencia. A relative unknown, Lough’s numbers in 2013 showed he profiled as a guy that could replace what McLouth had given the Birds previously. You could see that Lough lacked power, and had limited on-base skills. He did have speed, had hit for average, and the defensive metrics loved him. It was a deal many O’s fans were optimistic about.

On December 19th, that Balfour deal began to unravel due to issues the O’s had with the physical. Rumors immediately followed about the O’s having interest in Fernando Rodney.

Winter Meetings 2013

Late-December Through FanFest

With Christmas days away, The Sun’s Peter Schmuck ran a column on December 20th criticizing the O’s for not addressing the issues they had self-identified as needing to be improved.

There was additional news that day, as it was announced that Troy Patton had been suspended 25 games for Amphetamines.

When projecting who would man 2nd base, there was growing sentiment at BSL for Ryan Flaherty.

With the Balfour deal now officially dead, Angelos and the O’s were receiving a large amount of criticism – locally, and Nationally. The National articles included commentary from Rosenthal, and MLB Network’s Peter Gammons. The Gammons article used the headline, “Balfour ‘physical’ fiasco brings Orioles culture back to reality.”

Wieters bat, and discussion of if he should give up switch hitting (due to his splits the 3 previous seasons) were a hot-topic at the time.

We celebrated Festivus at the BSL Board, by airing our grievances with the O’s organization. My primary gripe was what I again termed ‘fence riding,’ as I said:

“If you are not going to do everything you can, to compete with this roster; then trade off what you can… get younger, cheaper, team controlled players and build back.

Or the inverse… if you are not willing to trade from this existing core, go make the moves necessary to give them a more legitimate chance to compete for the Playoffs.”

On December 26th, Orioles fans mourned the passing of Orioles Hall of Famer Paul Blair. The 2x All-Star, 8x Gold Glove CF having died at a local bowling tournament.

On December 27th, The Sun asked, “What should be the current priority for the O’s?” It was revealed in that article that it was not just money preventing interest in Garza. That it was money, and the loss of the compensatory pick preventing interest in Jimenez. There was a feeling that the O’s had interest in Brandon Arroyo or AJ Burnett in an either/or situation. The interest in Arroyo was predicated on the durability he had shown throughout his career. (200+ innings each year from 2005 through 2013. In 2014, Arroyo would suffer an elbow injury requiring Tommy John surgery, after pitching just 86 innings for the Diamondbacks.) With Burnett, the O’s were selling the local connection (Burnett maintains a home in Northern Baltimore County), and were interested in him because it figured to be a 1 year deal, with a guy that has always had plus stuff. Burnett would eventually sign a 1 year, $15M deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. While Burnett does have 183 k’s in his 207 innings of work, he also has allowed 93 walks, and suffered 17 losses. It is hard to look at Burnett’s numbers, and believe he would have done any better with the O’s in the AL East.

With two days remaining in 2013, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe wrote an article that the O’s owed it to their fans to give it their best shot. Cafardo had joined BSL Radio earlier that Month, where he had articulated a similar position.

Since departed BSL Orioles Analyst Gary Armida’s second article for the site did not get a lot of support. Armida – a Yankees fan – had wrote that the despite a winter of inaction, the O’s were close to contention. What chafed some of our readers was the perception that article showed that the inaction was at some level, planned by the organization. That point aside, the article reminded that as the calendar turned to 2014 – there were reasons to remain optimistic about the roster that existed.

BSL’s last Orioles related article of 2013, came on New Year’s Eve by Jeff, and Gary’s fellow Orioles Analyst – Patrick Dougherty. Patrick – an Economics Major from Loyola – wrote a piece looking at Ownership Economics, as it pertains to marginal cost, and marginal benefit. As the 2014 season ends, I think an update of this article would be interesting to see.

As January rolled in, PressBox had a Lunch event (buy tickets, have lunch) with Duquette. It was noted by me at the time, that the Baltimore Ravens had just seen their 2013 season end, and they had a Press Conference with their Owner, GM, and Head Coach all taking questions from all comers. While the O’s as an organization did not have that availability. I’d still like to see a ‘State of the Orioles’ address with their leadership, but again – an example of how some perceptions can change in a relative short amount of time.

There was talent remaining available on the Free Agent market, and continued discussion on the merits of signing any Free Agent with a Qualifying Offer attached.

In the first days of January, Armida had another interesting article. Looking at Britton’s elite skill (his ability to illicit ground balls), and imploring the O’s to not give up on him. Many of us remained convinced of Britton’s talent, but doubted him as a starter. There was a lot of talk of him possibly helping the bullpen.

Ghiroli had an article on January 10th, pointing out that DH remained an issue. It also included her commentary (an informed opinion, supplemented by her direct contacts with the organization) that the plan at that time was to platoon Urrutia, and Reimold if an outside DH was not acquired.

The 11th saw me writing an article reminding that Pitchers & Catchers would be reporting in a Month. I noted that Showalter had appeared on WBAL Radio’s Hot Stove Baseball that week, and he (along with Duquette at that PressBox event) had maintained a similar message about liking what they had internally. I wrote about agreeing with that perspective. Agreeing that there was a lot to like, and because of that I had found the Winter frustrating. That I still wanted to see more done. I said that to be fair to the O’s, not all improvement had to come from the off-season. That the O’s would point to their mid-season 2013 addition of Norris, and note that they would now have him for a full season. That Chen had missed a 1/3 of the 2013 season.

My question was, where had the O’s improved? That if the O’s were counting on improvement from what existed internally, they had to also factor in areas where players might regress. I brought up Chris Davis as an example. Would he be like his 2013 MVP self? At his 2012 levels? Somewhere in-between?

It’s safe to say that I didn’t see Davis completely imploding.

By January 13th, Dan Connolly of The Sun was reporting that the O’s were no longer interested in Closers, and were focused on SP.

Later that day, it came out that the O’s had signed Delmon Young to a Minor League deal. There were some rationale thoughts – a Minor League deal represented no risk, and it was a depth signing with some upside. There was also snark to be found (me included) that depth like this was good, but the appearance is not – when these are the only moves being made.

Days later Chris Davis spoke with MLB Network Radio, and said he believed the O’s needed another starting pitcher.

At the BSL Board, Shields posed the question, “What is the possibility that Davis is a non-tender candidate next year?” The premise being that if Davis had a 2014 like 2012, would the O’s be willing to commit 15%+ of their 2015 payroll to him?

SB Nation’s Orioles site Camden Chat wrote that 6 weeks after the Johnson trade, the O’s had yet to spend that money on salary. PressBox wrote that the O’s reluctance to spend, was putting the O’s at a competitive disadvantage. Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan would echo those thoughts days later.

CSN Baltimore talked about a Young / Urrutia platoon at DH.

FanGraphs talked about the O’s playing in the shallow end of the FA pool, and ESPN’s David Schoenfield wrote about the O’s looking like a team that would decline. Many O’s fans at the board were in agreement with the sentiment of that article. Like Cafardo the Month prior, Schoenfield had been a recent guest of BSL Radio, prior to the release of his article on the O’s.

On January 20th, Gammons again wrote about the O’s in his breakdown of the AL East. In that article, he stated it was reasonable to say the Orioles had the best core in the Division. He asked, if you added Arroyo, Rodney, and Morales to that group – how good would Baltimore be?

Clay Davenport’s first projections for 2014, had the O’s winning 77 games, and finishing in last place in the Division.

Veins were bursting out of the collective heads of O’s fans everywhere two days later, when Tanaka finalized a 7 year $155M deal with the Yankees.

MASN’s Steve Melewski captured those feelings in an article where he implored the O’s to do something, basically anything.

Sports Illustrated issued a Winter Report, giving the O’s a D for their efforts.

As it does most years, FanFest (held February 1st this year) offered a welcome respite in the dead of Winter. Optimistic or pessimistic about the coming year, Orioles fans regularly love to gather and think about the return of warmer days and baseball.

It’s always a well run event from the Orioles organization, which puts O’s fans in-touch with players past and present, and gives fans a chance to interact with the organizations leadership as well. There are always great scenes of multiple generations of fans coming together to celebrate the bond that exists between the team, an the City. This year was no exception, as the O’s had their second largest FanFest crowd (over 15,000) ever.

fanfest

Early February Through Spring Training

Grantland’s Jonah Keri joined BSL Radio the following Monday, teasing an O’s article he would put out that week. He talked about supporting the idea of the O’s signing Cruz, even with the loss of the compensatory pick. He had strong praise for Duquette.

When Keri’s article came out, it was the most comprehensive look (local or National) at that point, to detail the impact of the MASN TV dispute between the Orioles and Washington Nationals; and how that dispute was influencing the O’s off-season.

Schoenfield wrote about the O’s again on February 7th, predicting the Birds to finish with a .500 record. In his comments, he pointed to Davis as the O’s most intriguing player, with the included comment that Davis was coming of a 2013 season where he had the 6th most extra-base hits in American League history.

SB Nation’s sabermetric site Beyond the Boxscore wrote about the O’s on the 8th. Their suggestion was that the O’s should tank the 2014 season, and go all-in on 2015.

That same day, MASN’s Roch Kubatko said if Burnett wanted to stay in the National League, the O’s should make him accept a lower offer to do so. the Orioles desperately need to make a statement. Kubatko, “At this point, I just want the club to sign a starter who can will upgrade the rotation and appease most of the fan-base. You can’t please everyone, of course. No one in that group is without faults, but the Orioles desperately need to make a statement. Something like, “We said that we were going to spend money and get the payroll to $100 million, and we’ve done it.” To me, Tim Hudson is the one who got away. The Orioles liked him, but he signed quickly – accepting a two-year, $23 million offer from the Giants back in November. They should have put $24 million on the table and challenged him to accept less to pitch in San Francisco. It would have required an aggressive approach. You see the issue.”

Kubatko was enthusiastically praised at the BSL Board for asking for action from the O’s Front-office.

FOX’s Morosi was now reporting that the were talking to Joe Saunders, and Chris Capauano as potential starting options. The issue which received the most variance of opinion from O’s fans at the time, was whether the O’s should sign one of the players tied to Qualifying offer, and thus lose their first pick (17th overall) in the MLB Draft.

Orioles Pitchers and Catchers arrived for Spring Training the day before Valentine’s Day. The full-squad reported on the 18th.  In-between, the signing of Suk-min Yoon was announced, and for a time it seemed like Yoon could potentially be an option for the Orioles bullpen, or even as a 5th starter. Yoon’s performance at AAA Norfolk was underwhelming this year; and we will have to see if he can make adjustments next year. Either way, the 3 year $5.75M deal was low-risk for the former Korean Baseball Organization MVP. 

As the O’s camp began, I provided some quick hits on the O’s pitching. Burnett had officially signed with Philadelphia (1 year, $16M) on the 13th. Should the O’s have offered more? It’s not hindsight to say there was an argument made then, that works now looking back. A one year deal for Burnett at the dollars it would have taken, would have allowed the O’s to keep the pick they lost when they signed Jimenez; and the overall risk of the deal would have been minimized. That benefit is understood, but as we said earlier, there are no real reasons to believe Burnett would have fared well in the AL this season.

We wrote about the merits of giving up the draft comp for Jimenez or Santana, and how the O’s had arrived at the point. I argued there had been numerous other starters available for short-term deals that did not have draft compensation attached. I also made the point that signing one or the other only figured to move the bar so much. That if you were going to sign one, and give up the #17 pick, you might as well sign both and give up the 2nd rounder.

An interesting article from Long at the time was titled, “On Windows, Free Agents, Going Big, or Going Home.” It was strong work from Jeff, discussing the multitude of different variables that the Front Office was likely pondering. Ultimately it was about making the moves which best allow for sustainable contention. In that article, Jeff suggested the hypothetical idea of Jimenez being signed for 4 years. Two days later, that hypothetical became reality as Jimenez was signed.  There was a lot of debate to be found on how successful Jimenez would be, if it was the right decision to give up the draft pick; but the signing had very high support from O’s fans. The O’s had done something of significance. They had selected a direction. That was easy to support.

Duquette and the O’s Front Office did not stop there. The signing of Jimenez was followed by the addition of Cruz on February 24th. The 1 year, $8M deal for Cruz was seen as providing a lot of upside. It was another move easy to support, as giving up the 2nd round pick for Cruz made more sense after the decision had been made to add Jimenez.

BSL’s Armida raised the idea that the O’s Front Office deserved credit for waiting out the market, and coming away with value. That remains a debated point at the BSL Board today. Is that an accurate portrayal of events, or is that using the results to craft a narrative?

Either way, optimism was now soaring in Bird Land. Those of us who had been projecting the O’s to win somewhere between 81-85 games, now believed the O’s were elevated to a true Wild Card contender with these additions.

Las Vegas was less impressed, as the over/under for the O’s was set at 80.5 wins by Bovada on February 27th. (Of course that line was set on what Vegas thinks would cause people to bet equally either way, not necessarily the win total that was anticipated.)

The O’s organization suffered another significant loss, when Public Relations Director Monica Barlow died February 28th, after a long bout from cancer. My interactions with Ms. Barlow were minimal. We occasionally exchanged messages. We knew each other enough to small-talk at O’s events. Those who knew her better have brought her up numerous times this year, showing that the departure of their friend has remained on their minds.

With the Grapefruit season underway, one of the early standouts was Schoop. By March 5th, The Sun was asking if he could make the Opening Day roster.

Norris was drawing attention from other teams, and there were plenty of O’s fans who thought he should be moved.

Long discussed the addition of O’Day’s change-up, and how that could make O’Day more effective vs. LHH. Armida wrote how the ‘pen overall was shaping up to be an asset. Britton looked fantastic, and made it an easy decision to include him on the roster.

FanGraphs looked at the strongest projected Strengths of Schedule, and determined the O’s had the toughest schedule overall.

Brian Matusz had talked about his desire to again start.  O’s fans everywhere looked at his splits and collectively said, “No.”

With the usual apologies to John Eisenberg, I gave another iteration of my version of ‘Fact & Opinion.’  I said that regression was expected with Davis, but that he needed to remain a force. I get no credit there, as I certainly did not forecast his 2014 numbers; and without him being a force – the O’s have won 96 games. I said I was hoping for Markakis to finish with 30+ doubles, and an on-base % above .360. He did not reach those goals, as he finished with 27 doubles, and an on-base % of .342.  I noted that the O’s finished 2013 5th in runs scored, 3rd in slugging, and 19th in on-base %. I said that I saw no reason to think the O’s would profile differently in ’14. (This year, they finished 8th in runs scored, 3rd in slugging, and 17th in on-base %.)

I wrote about how the O’s starters posted an ERA of 4.57 in ’13, good for 12th in the American League. My opinion was that if the O’s starters finished ’14, with an ERA of 4.00; I’d believe they would win the Division. They far exceeded that, posting a 3.63 mark for the year.

With the NCAA Tournament starting, Dougherty asked if this was the year the AL East would have just one playoff team? Later that Month, Dougherty would write about the O’s need for homers. 2014 proving to be the 3rd consecutive season that the O’s reached the 200 homer plateau. The O’s 210 homers this year, being 25 more than the next most team.

At the BSL Board, we talked about Ceilings & Floors for the O’s. By definition, that creates large swaths of potential outcomes; but the range of 75 wins at the low, to 95 wins at the high was consistently mentioned.

In late March, the New York Times said, “The O’s are wired for winning.”

There was an article at BSL, with Long, Armida, Dougherty, and myself making picks. All four of us had the AL East getting two teams to the post-season. Three of us picked Tampa Bay to win the Division. I was the only one to have the O’s in the Playoffs, selecting the O’s as the 1st Wild Card. That was me saying I believed the O’s were roughly an 89 win team. Had you told me the O’s would have won 96 games, I would have been surprised.  Sports Tonight hosts Shields and Weber also had the O’s as a Wild Card team.

More than anything, those predictions, and the sentiment on the board was that really any outcome was plausible with this team for 2014. As the season prepared to begin, the primary concern with many posters was with the bullpen. Excitement over Britton’s potential to factor out of the bullpen was increasing.

Ed Smith Stadium

The Season Begins; April Review

Opening Day began on the last day of March, against the defending World Champion Red Sox. The O’s would gain the 2-1 victory, beating O’s nemesis Jon Lester in the process. Tillman allowed 1 er, in his 5 innings of work. Britton would claim the win. Tommy Hunter earned the save. Cruz started his season with a bang, providing the ultimate difference maker with his 7th inning homer off Lester.

Missing from that Opening Day lineup was Manny Machado, who would not play at all in April, still recovering from his knee surgery.

That Opening Day win was followed by losses in 5 of the next 6 games, as the Birds limped out of the gate. Tillman’s terrific outing in Detroit being the lone positive.

Jimenez made a poor first impression with O’s fans, going 0-4 in April with a 6.59 ERA. Most appalling was the 17 walks in those first 27.1 innings of work. Compared to September 2013 (where had been awesome with Cleveland), he was throwing his slider less, and splitter more.

Hardy’s year began with him missing multiple games in April with back spasms.

There was a fair amount of discussion that carrying Pearce, Young, and Cruz was an example of poor roster management due to redundancy.

Pearce, who got into just 3 games and accumulated only 7 ab’s in April, was released on the 27th, before being resigned on the 29th.

Wieters was off to a strong start, posting a .935 OPS in April and hitting from both sides of the plate.  It was noticed by fans that his hands were lower, and that he looked quicker to the ball.

Hunter ended April with 6 saves in his first 7 opportunities, but was struggling to have clean innings.

Cruz had 6 homers over 22 games in April.

Davis headed to the DL on April 26th with an oblique injury, and would miss the next 12 games.

The Orioles ended the first Month of the year, with a 12-12 record, trailing the Yankees by 2 games in the AL East.

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May Arrives, Machado Returns, Wieters Is Lost

Machado made his 2014 debut on May 1st.  Many people were expecting too much from the young 3rd baseman, considering Machado had been unable to train all Winter – and do very little in the Spring.

May was basically Machado’s Spring Training, and it showed. He had just a .559 OPS over 109 ab’s for the Month, and his defense was still a work in progress as well.

With Davis on the DL, an opportunity opened for more playing time for Pearce. Pearce kicked open the door, with a .900 OPS (8 xbh’s) in 68 ab’s.

Eventual Most Valuable Oriole winner Cruz, might have won the award with his production in May. His slash line for Baseball’s 2nd month? .339/.388/.748. Despite Cruz’s monster numbers, the O’s offense as a whole was off to a slow start. In mid-May, MASN’s Melewski wrote about the offense not living up to their 2013 numbers. At the time of the May 19th article, the O’s had been held to 3 runs or less in 13 of their last 21 games. Baltimore was homering at a much lower rate than they had over ’13.

April had not been kind to Jones (.638 OPS), but his bat started to warm in May (.785 OPS).

On May 2nd, the O’s got a glimmer of what they had hoped they were signing from Jimenez. On that night in Minnesota, Jimenez went 7.1 ip, allowing 0 er, 3 hits, 1 bb, and striking out 10. He would make 6 starts during the Month, posting a 3.12 era in those outings.

May 2nd also saw a game winning homer from Wieters. On May 7th, Dr. James Andrews had reviewed Wieters MRI, and said he was not a candidate for surgery. Still, the O’s Catcher headed to the DL on May 11th. O’s fans had noticed an issue with his throwing, so when it came out that he had an elbow injury; it was not shocking. Still, he had been of to a nice start with the bat, and you wondered if the O’s would be able to overcome his loss. At the time, there was still some hope he could return. A month later it would be announced that he would require Tommy John surgery, ending his 2014 season.

Hardy batted .333 during May (and got back to playing everyday), but May would end with the SS having 0 homers in his first 172 ab’s of the year.

Schoop had a brutal May, batting just .188. There seemed to be increasing pressure on the Front Office to make a move to improve 2nd base, or for Showalter to make the decision to start Flaherty.

One of the keys of this 2014 season, was that the rotation stayed healthy. They took the ball every 5th day. By the end of May, Gonzalez, Chen, and Norris had made 30 starts. (Though Gonzalez had been placed on the DL in early May with blister.)

Kevin Gausman made his first 2014 start on May 14th against the Tigers. Following his loss that day, he was returned to AAA Norfolk; not returning to Baltimore for several weeks.

On Thursday, the O’s will gladly hand the ball to Tillman for Game 1 of the ALDS. In May, Tillman’s inconsistency was inviting questions. The RHP would make 7 starts during the Month. He tossed a shutout vs. the Royals, and allowed just 1 er in 6.2 against Houston; and still had an ERA of 5.68 during May.

During April, Britton had been used in a multitude of roles out of the bullpen. In May, he gained his first 4 saves of the year. (Hunter had saved 11 of his first 12 opportunities, but the outings were tedious. After Hunter blew back-to-back games on May 10th and 13th; he went to the DL.) There had been discussion about if it was the right decision to move Britton to Closer. Was he more valuable being used in potentially higher-leverage situations earlier in games? I think you have to say it was the right decision. Not just because Britton racked-up saves, but because it provided order to the bullpen, and gave the O’s the mentality that games were over when he entered.

On May 28th, CBS Chicago said the O’s were the leading candidate to trade for Jeff Smardzija.

On May 29th, there was an ESPN article about the O’s having a plan for Johan Santana to join the rotation.

As May ended, the Birds were 26-27, in 3rd place in the AL East (4.5 GB of Toronto). The Blue Jays were the only team in the Division which had a positive Run Differential. The O’s had already had three different 4 game losing streaks, and had lost 12 of their last 18 games. Per MASN, Baltimore’s offense had been held to one run or fewer in 8 games, and two runs or fewer in 16 games.

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The Play Improves In June

When June began, there was an attempt to understand what the O’s were. Since June 1st, 2013 through the end of May 2014; the O’s had been right around .500.  The starters were taking the ball every 5th day, but the results were a bit up and down. There were some positives being shown out of the bullpen, and also some reason to question how sustainable they would be. There were questions about Hardy. Wieters was out of action, and Davis had missed time (and was only average ish offensively – an .800 or so OPS to begin June).

The primary optimism at the time, was the knowledge that the O’s had yet to play particularly well, and that the AL East looked middling. If the Birds could turn it on, there was opportunity there.

On June 1st, Long wrote about the O’s next 107 games. The conclusion was that overall, the post-season odds had improved since the season had begun. Considering the adversity the O’s had faced; the Orioles were still very much in the mix for the post-season.

Gausman would make his second start June 7th vs. the A’s and looked the part of a future ACE. That series being more notable for Machado’s implosion, and many comments that came out after from Oakland players – notably Josh Donaldson.

Machado’s poor May, and that lost weekend had some O’s fans suggesting Manny had additional growing to do. Some even thought Machado would be better off at AAA. Instead, he stayed with Baltimore, and with each passing game looked more like his 2013 self. Machado would finish with a .775 OPS in June, and his defense was also rounding into shape.

The first two Months had gone as well as possible for Cruz. The next three Months would be a struggle with June being the start (a .215 batting average, .646 OPS).

With Cruz now slumping, Jones’ now hot bat (1.026 OPS) picked-up some of the slack.

When June started, there was still plenty of hope that Davis would turn things on. He had missed time, but was back in the lineup. He had yet to do much offensively, but his numbers were not horrible. Instead, his year got worse. June would be the start of three straight Months where Davis batted under .200. In 97 ab’s, he struck-out 36 times.

Chen raised his game during the Month. In April his ERA had been 4.34. In May, it was 4.66. During June, it was 3.67 for the Month.

Hardy’s first homer came on June 21st.

Schoop had his highest average of any Month (.243) in June, and while that was not good enough to silence his critics; it was good enough to keep him in the lineup. In late June he would add his 2nd homer of the year vs. Tanaka. Calls for Flaherty to replace him, were still there though, and looking towards the non-waiver deadline – 2nd seemed like an obvious place for an external option to be added.

On the verge of getting back to the Big Leagues, Santana tore his Achilles on June 6th. This also quelled some the growing discussion of potentially utilizing a 6 man rotation.

In that first week of June, there was talk about when would be the appropriate time to considering selling. Most people were of the mind-set that the Orioles had until mid-July to improve their play.

As of June 9th, the Orioles were 15th overall in run scored, 25th in ERA, and had a negative run differential. On June 9th, there was a thread on the BSL Board asking, “How do you currently view the Orioles?” There were a lot of varied answers, but if any consensus existed – it was that they were underachieving. That due to the shape of the rest of the American League, there was still time remaining for the O’s to factor.

On June 15th, MASN pointed out, “The O’s rotation has churned out six consecutive quality starts. It’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 13 of the last 16 games, posting a 1.51 ERA in those 13 games.”

When news officially came out that Wieters was done for the year, Sports on Earth wrote, “…the loss of Matt Wieters for the season is just as damaging to their hopes of contention as any starting pitcher would have been — perhaps even more so.”

On June 29th, the O’s played their 81st game of the year – and I wrote about half of the season being in the books. We talked about the team having another Month to make a push, but the tone used was mostly that an ascent was possible, not to be expected. We did note that the Defensive Efficiency had been steadily on the rise since Machado had returned. We also spoke about the improvements with the starting pitching, but that was more needed. We were still fixated on the idea that if real improvement was going to come; that Jimenez and Gausman needed to be a part of that. (Jimenez had another effective Month in June.)

Pearce had another huge Month in June, launching 5 homers, with 7 doubles, while batting .361.

June ended with the O’s record standing at 44-39, 1GB of Toronto in the AL East. The Jays and Baltimore were the only two teams in the East with a positive run-differential.

C/O Baltimore Sun

C/O Baltimore Sun

July: Hot, Hazy, Humid – The Birds Make Their Move

July in Baltimore is hot. The humidity at times overwhelming. It was relatively mild this Summer in the Mid-Atlantic, but July in Baltimore is hot – even if this year it was not the typical sweltering ‘please shoot me now’ type of heat. As Summer kicked into full-gear, so did the Orange & Black.

Nationally, the Pearce story was picking up, with articles on Pearce in Sports Illustrated, and Beyond the Boxscore.

On Independence Day, we wrote about how during each year during 2009-2013; Jones and Markakis had posted negative Ultimate Zone Rating / 150 numbers, but this year – their production was positive. We wondered what could be behind this. Limited sample size? A change in positioning? Fluke? I don’t know what we ever got a real satisfactory answer. For the record, both players did finish 2014 with positive UZR/15o’s. When their metrics were negative, my take was that their defense was somewhere between the negative metrics and the positive accolades they received. I have the same take now, with the metrics in their favor.

The 85th All-Star Game was held July 15th at Target Field in Minnesota. Jones, Cruz, and Wieters were elected starters. Obviously Wieters did not play. There were reasonable arguments for O’Day, or Britton being named to the staff; but that did not occur. Should it matter, the AL’s victory would give the O’s home-field advantage in the World Series.

Baltimore had played 94 games going into the break, and went into the hiatus leading the East. Over their past 13 games, there had been a 5 game swing in the standings.

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick had taken notice, and wrote that the O’s could be ready to take over the Division.

At SB Nation, Grant Brisbee talked about the ‘Awful fortunes of the 1st Place Orioles’. His point being to note how much more had gone wrong for the O’s, than had gone right.

An example of that being, the O’s were on top of the Division, despite Davis having an OPS of .688 in his first 287 ab’s of the year. In context, Davis had posted a Slugging % of .634 during 2013.

The Grantland Power Rankings from July 14th focused on the AL East. Having won 25 of their last 40 games, Baltimore had moved to #9 in Jonah Keri’s rankings.

On the 18th, we posted our Q&A with Szymborski, Matthew Kory (Sports on Earth), and Matthew Pouliot (NBC Sports / Hardball Talk). We spoke about that with the O’s obtaining another year of service time with Gausman, he was expected to stay in the rotation here on out. Szymborski expressed some optimism for Jimenez long-term, but he made the correct point that Jimenez (not Norris, or Gonzalez) should be the one to leave the rotation. It never became much of a decision for the O’s, as Jimenez went to the DL with an ankle injury on the 11th. (His two return starts in August would prove ineffective.)

Szymborski also got the last words of the Q&A. We asked what the O’s would need to do for the writers to believe the O’s could win their their 4th World Championship? “Make the playoffs!  Everyone’s pretty close in the playoffs, so really, I’m a believer in “could” for any team that makes it!”  Maybe not the most inspiring words, but pretty apt. The O’s have punched their ticket to the post-season, and they have given themselves the opportunity for that 4th Title.

Coming out of the All-Star Break, the O’s were scheduled to play teams that were currently over .500 during their next 29 games.  With the resume of play, that stretch started with a West Coast trip against Oakland, the LA Angels, and Seattle.

It was a tough beginning to the trip when Donaldson hit a 3 run shot off of Britton in the Bottom of the 9th to beat the O’s. Chen would come back the next night to earn his 10th win, and Britton would get his 16th save. Jones would knock in 5 runs that day in support.

Rebounding from tough losses, has been a trademark of the O’s under Showalter. He has continuously been able to keep the O’s focused on the next day. July 29th was the 4th anniversary of Showalter being named the O’s Manager. When he took over in 2010, the Orioles were 41 games under .500 (32-73).

The Birds followed up that series in Oakland by taking 2 of 3 in LA, and 3 of 4 in Seattle.  At the Non-Waiver deadline, the O’s made the shrewdest move of the year – acquiring Andrew Miller for promising lefty prospect Eduardo Rodriguez. Teaming Miller with O’Day (who had allowed 1 er, in 16 innings, while striking out 20 during July), and Britton gave the O’s an obscenely talented bullpen.

July ended with the O’s at 60-47, leading Toronto by 1.5 Games (the Jays had won 6 in a row). Baltimore, and the Blue Jays remained the only two teams in the Division with a positive run differential.

C/O Baltimore Sun

C/O Baltimore Sun

August: Pulling Away, & Welcoming New Additions

In 2013, Caleb Joseph had produced the following numbers at AA Bowie: 135 games, 518 ab’s, .299 baa, 22 hr’s, 97 rbi, 31 doubles, 39 bb’s, 92 k’s, .840 OPS.  Despite that fine season offensively, there were rumors that Orioles Management had reservations about Joseph’s defense.

Promoted on May 7th, Joseph had spent the last few months acclimating himself to the Bigs. There was very encouraging moments along the way. The three runners he threw out May 13th standing out. The ESPN Sweetspot Orioles site Camden Depot had also written about the evidence pointing towards him being a good pitch-framer behind the plate. Joseph was also getting some credit for the O’s improved pitching after June 1st. During June he batted .214. In July that was upped to .271. In August, he really began opening eyes when he homered in 5 consecutive games – posting a .952 OPS for the Month.

Following his struggles in May, Tillman went on a consistent run of success the rest of the season. His best Month was in August where he went 4-0, with a 1.33 era.

Schoop was yet another Oriole whose best Month of the year came in August. Maybe he relaxed after the Non-Waiver deadline came and went, and he was still entrenched? For the Month, Schoop had a .749 OPS, with 11 xbh’s. The biggest factor that allowed him to stay at 2nd all year, was his defense.  He’s very good around the bag, has a strong arm, and better range than was advertised on his way through the system.

On August 11th, adversity once again hit the Birds as Machado’s other knee was injured. 10 days later the O’s would announce surgery was required, and that Machado was done for the year. During July, Machado had batted .333 with 4 homers. To start August, he was even hotter – batting .378, with 4 more xbh’s.  Losing Wieters had been disappointing. Losing Machado seemed crushing. He was back to batting 2nd in the lineup. He was back to impacting games daily at 3rd. Everything was going so well for the O’s, it felt like this could be the shoe dropping. Many of us had the opinion that the O’s needed to push for Texas’ Adrian Beltre as an answer. That would not happen.

Again, Showalter and his veteran players got past some bad news. On August 12th, the game vs. New York was postponed due to rain. That was followed by wins in 5 of their next 7 games.

After getting swept by the Cubs in Chicago, the O’s won 6 of 7 to end the Month.  On August 30th, two trades were made as Baltimore obtained Alejandro De Aza, and Kelly Johnson.

The Month ended with Baltimore in complete control of the Division. At 79-56, the O’s had a 9 game lead on the Yankees in the East. The run differential was now +78 for the Orioles.

Chris Tillman

September: Playing Out The String And Waiting For October

When you enter September with a 9 game lead in the Division, there is not a lot of remaining suspense. Barring an epic collapse, you are going to be part of the post-season. The only real questions were who would the O’s face, and could Baltimore catch the Angels for the #1 seed in the American League?

On the first day of the Month, Nick Hundley (who the O’s had obtained in late May for Troy Patton), homered. On the 4th, Hundley would homer again – capping a 6 run 1st inning against the Reds.

In his own words, De Aza was invigorated by now being part of a contender. He would play 20 games for the O’s in September, and post an .877 OPS. He’s certainly a piece of the puzzle as October starts.

Following three months of doing very little, Cruz’s bat came back to life this last Month (.349 batting average, .988 OPS).

Young, the 1st overall pick in the 2002 Draft, had a very impressive season. While he had less than 250 ab’s, what impressed was his ability to stay productive in those limited opportunities off the bench. He hit both RH and LH pitching, with slightly better numbers vs. righties. After struggling a bit in August (with his most consistent playing time of the year), he batted over .300 against in September.

Lough probably went into 2014 anticipating receiving more than the 174 ab’s he wound-up with. Like Young, he gets credit for becoming a productive reserve. After digging himself a large hole in the 1st half (.197 batting average at the All-Star break), he was 20 of 57 (.357 baa) after. In September, Lough had 4 xbh’s, including 2 homers.

With Machado on the shelf, Davis was getting some regular time at 3rd (allowing Pearce to play 1st, and Young and Cruz to slot in at DH and LF). Following three successive Months with a batting average under .200; Davis was showing some signs of life in September (.256 baa, .762 OPS… and 9 homers over his last 132 ab’s going back to August). In the latest example of something to overcome, Davis would be suspended 25 games on September 12th for amphetamine use (specifically adderall). This suspension means Davis is unavailable for the ALDS, and would not be available for at-least the first three games of the ALCS should the O’s advance. If the O’s did move on, the question becomes would you want him on the roster, with his last at-bat coming September 10th?

Third base effectively became a competition between Flaherty, Johnson (who Flaherty has often been compared to), and Jimmy Paredes who had joined the O’s organization at the end of July.

Norris rebounded from a down August, to go 4-0 in September with a 2.08 ERA. He finished the year with 15 wins.

Chen would allow just 7 er in 30.2 September innings (2.05 ERA). He finished the year with 16 wins.

Against the Blue Jays on the 16th, the Orioles won their first Division Title since 1997. Champagne flowed, pies were smashed, and Jones interacted and celebrated with the fans in a way which will long be remembered.

It was easy to feel good for a number of O’s that night. Jimenez for contributing with a September win. Hunter for closing out the game in the 9th. The player I felt best for was Markakis. Robbed of the opportunity to compete in the 2012 post-season after the injury suffered by the Sabathia pitch; the current longest-tenured Oriole was now going to get his chance. Markakis has played in 1,364 games as an O. He’s racked-up 5,327 ab’s. On Thursday he will taste the playoffs for himself, for the first time.

Adam Jones

October Awaits

In March I anticipated that the O’s would be a plus slugging team, with limited on-base skills. That the starting pitching would be competitive, even if it lacked an ACE. That the defense would be strong.

Those things occurred, but the path to the point was different than expected.

Lose Wieters. Lose Machado. See unbelievable regression from Davis, and eventually also lose him. Jimenez never emerges as a front-end starter, and winds-up being removed from the rotation. Gausman has moments and starts where he flashes the upside, but doesn’t take that huge leap?

For those things to happen (and not happen) and for the O’s to be in the position they are in, is pretty remarkable.

They’ve earned their seat at the table, and the chance to take advantage of the existing opportunity. You know every member of the Orioles organization is relishing this. Orioles fans are as well. The 1998 through 2011 seasons were so brutal, because there was no hope. Seasons were over before the first pitch was thrown. We’ve now seen three consecutive years of winning baseball. The O’s have become the team we dreamed about during those long, lost years – consistently relevant. We will see if the O’s are able to sustain this long-term, but you get the feeling that as long as Duquette and Showalter are together; that the O’s can remain a force.

11 wins are needed for the Orioles to obtain their 4th World Championship. They have more than a sluggers chance. It’s fair to have doubts – those doubts have existed pretty much every step of the way, even before the season ever began.

What this season shows though, is that counting the O’s out would be a foolish proposition.    

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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