It has been a contrast in winters for the Toronto Blue Jays. A year ago, the Blue Jays were the talk of Major League Baseball as they were “going for it” by bringing in Jose Reyes, RA Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Melky Cabrera, Josh Johnson, and Emilio Bonifacio. The names were great and the concept was good, but the Blue Jays finished in last place with a 74-88 record. In most cases, the worst case scenario played out. Josh Johnson couldn’t get anyone out. Melky Cabrera couldn’t rediscover whatever made him a potential MVP candidate just one year ago. Bonifacio couldn’t get on base. Jose Bautista finished the year on the disabled list. Colby Rasmus and Brett Lawrie missed significant time.  

The pitching staff was even worse as only veterans RA Dickey and Mark Buehrle were able to make over 30 starts and give more than 200 innings. No other Blue Jays starter made more than 20 starts or pitched more than 138 innings. In all, the Blue Jays staff ranked 12th in ERA, 13th in FIP, and 15th in starter innings pitched.

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What looked like a powerful offense failed to finish in the top five in any category outside of home runs (4th). Blue Jays batters ranked a mediocre 8th in on base percentage and 7th in slugging percentage. About the only thing the Blue Jays ranked favorably in was defensive runs saved, which stood at +15, ranking 5th in the American League.

This winter saw a different approach. While the Blue Jays were rumored to be in on starting pitchers such as Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana, the net gains of the winter were catcher Dioner Navarro and free agent fliers on names like Dan Johnson, Tomo Ohka, and Steve Tolleson. Canada’s team is hoping for better health and rebound seasons from their key contributors while hoping Brett Lawrie can make good on his promise. They are an intriguing team given their offensive potential, but in the American League East, it looks like another long season.

 

The Good

Legitimate Power: Bautista and Encarnacion

Five or six years ago, most teams were stocked with home run hitters. As the game has normalized, legitimate 30 to 40 home run hitters are getting quite rare. The Blue Jays have two in their lineup, something every other American League East team cannot claim. Jose Bautista looks as healthy as he has been in the past three or four seasons, which makes him a preseason MVP favorite. Due to injuries, Bautista has played in just 210 games over the past two seasons. Consider, however, that he has posted a .251/.358/.510 batting line with an average of 28 home runs per season. Project that over 162 games, he is averaging 43 home runs. With his wrist and hip looking healthy, there is no reason to doubt that Bautista won’t be a league leader in home runs.

It took seven years before Edwin Encarnacion’s power statistics matched up with his peripheral numbers. Like Bautista, Encarnacion has found comfort in Toronto. Over the past two seasons, Encarnacion has hit .276/.376/.574 with an average of 39 home runs. The scary part is that he seems to be improving as he cut his strikeout rate to just 10 percent last season. Another 30 to 40 home run  season is well within reach for Encarnacion, who has found a home as the Blue Jays’ first baseman.

A look at the division shows that the Blue Jays do have a real advantage in terms of home run power. The Rays don’t have anyone who projects to hit more than 30. The Yankees are hopeful that Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira, Alfonso Soriano, and Brian McCann can reach 30. The Red Sox have David Ortiz and Mike Napoli, but they aren’t guarantees to top 30. The Orioles have Chris Davis. The Blue Jays have two elite home run hitters, something that is becoming quite rare in Major League Baseball.

Rasmus Emerging

Like Encarnacion and Bautista, Colby Rasmus seems to have taken to Toronto. After being buried by Tony LaRussa and then given away by the Cardinals, Rasmus is just entering his prime seasons. Rasmus was limited to just 118 games last season, but he posted his best season since 2007, hitting .276/.338/.501 with 22 home runs, just one off his career best. Despite posting the highest strikeout rate of his career, Rasmus increased his walk rate to 8.3 percent, tied his career best 130 wRC+, posted a career best .225 ISO, and posted a best .365 wOBA.

In addition to the growing power, his defense is becoming a major strength. With 11 defensive runs saved and 11.2 UZR, Rasmus was the fourth best center fielder according to DRS and the second best by UZR. Rasmus looks like he could become a solid, all around player and could be the Blue Jays’ third 30 home run hitter.

400 innings

With so much uncertainty with the rotation, the Blue Jays do have two relatively safe bets at the top of the rotation. RA Dickey didn’t replicate his Cy Young Award winning season during his first year in Toronto, but he did give the Blue Jays  34 starts, 224.2 innings, 207 hits, a 4.21 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 18.8 percent strikeout rate, and a 7.5 percent walk rate. While the season was a disappointment for Dickey, he did give 224.2 league average innings. There is value in that, even if the Blue Jays invested in him as a top starter. A knuckleball pitcher is difficult to project, but it is easy to see Dickey having a better season. He may never be a Cy Young candidate again, but he can be a slightly better than league average pitcher for 200 innings.

He needs to be because the only other guarantee the Blue Jays have is veteran southpaw Mark Buehrle. The 35 year old may not be dominant or throw particularly hard, but he has pitched over 200 innings in every season since 2001. Given that he doesn’t rely on throwing hard, another 200 inning season with an ERA around 4.00 looks reasonable.

The duo may not be the best in the division, but they are the safest bet for those 200 combined innings.

Back of the Bullpen

By WAR, the 2013 Blue Jays’ bullpen ranked 7th in the American League. It is a group that pitched the second most innings in the American League and posted the second best ground ball rate. The 2014 bullpen looks strong, especially in late game situations. With a healthy Sergio Santos, the Blue Jays now boast four above average relievers with Casey Janssen closing and being flanked by Steve Delabar, Brett Cecil, Aaron Loup, and Santos. The group features power in Delabar, Santos, and Cecil, while also featuring control in Loup and Santos. No matter the configuration of the bullpen, the Blue Jays do have the most high quality depth to finish games. In a division that should feature four teams over .500, this element of the game is crucial. For all of their questions in every other aspect of the team, there should be zero questions with the core of the bullpen.

The Questionable

Starters 3-5

Right now, Brandon Morrow, Dustin McGowan, and Drew Hutchison figure to round out the rotation. Morrow is quite talented, but has made just 31 starts over the past two seasons. Because of injuries, Morrow hasn’t quite reached the level that was projected for him, even though he is one of the better strikeout pitchers in the game. McGowan has missed all of 2009, 2010, and 2012 with various injuries. He made just 5 appearances in 2011 and finally made it back in 2013 to make 25 relief appearances. McGowan’s best season was 2007 when he pitched to a 4.08 ERA in 169.2 innings over 27 starts. He’s never once made it through a complete season.

Hutchison, entering his age 23 season, is having a breakout spring training. The right hander is averaging 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings in 4 spring starts. There is a possibility that Hutchison becomes at least a league average starter. Of all the Blue Jays’ starters, Hutchison has the most upside, but he is also the most raw of the group.

Health

The Toronto Blue Jays have one of the worst records of pitcher health in the Major Leagues. Dustin McGowan is just the latest example. The last time the Blue Jays had a young core of pitchers, most went out. McGowan (before this most recent one), Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch, and then-starter, now-closer Casey Janssen. Pitching injuries are at an epidemic level in Major League Baseball, so the Blue Jays are hardly alone in this. But, their record is well documented as the fact that they have one of the worst pitching development programs in the sport. As one Major League coach once said, “Their program is still run with ideas from the 1960’s.”

Aside from the pitching questions, the Blue Jays are fielding a roster of players with injury history. Bautista has missed quite a bit of time. Rasmus, Encarnacion, Jose Reyes, and Lawrie have all missed time over the years. The Blue Jays are light on prospects and their bench is one of the worst in the sport so the health of their key players is paramount to them even having a chance at a winning season.  

Longshot Bets

Aside from playing the toughest division in the sport, the Blue Jays are betting on so many things going their way. That rotation has to perform despite three of the five hardly pitching at the Major League level over the past four years. Adam Lind is coming off of his first positive season since 2009. Can he do it again? If you believe in the large sample size, the answer looks to be no. While it was clear that JP Arencibia had to go, the Blue Jays replaced him with veteran Dioner Navarro. The 30 year old is coming off of his best offensive season, but he played in just 89 games. Is Navarro the .365 OBP and .492 slugging percentage player of last season or is he like the .313/.371 hitter he has been over the course of his 10 years in the Major Leagues? Is Melky Cabrera even capable of giving league average production?

Then, of course, are the health bets of the lineup. Jose Reyes is already dealing with a hamstring injury. With little depth and the injury history of the roster, the longest shot maybe the one the Blue Jays are taking on player health.

Most Important Player

If Jose Bautista can play a full season, he can hit 50 home runs and be an MVP candidate. If the Blue Jays have any chance to contend, they have to bash their way to that. Without Bautista, the Blue Jays are a solid power team. With him, they may be the most powerful team.

Under the Radar Player

Edwin Encarnacion used to fill this spot, but people have caught on just how good he really is. The only player who sort of fits this spot is reliever Sergio Santos. The right hander finally returned to the mound last season and posted a 1.75 ERA in 29 appearances. In 2011, his second season as a full-time reliever, Santos averaged a 13.8 percent strikeout rate as the White Sox closer. Injuries have limited him to just 34 appearances since. If healthy, he could take over the closer role.

Farmhand to Know

There are good prospects in the organization, but most are in the lower levels of the system. Right hander Marcus Stroman could see time in the rotation this season. In his two years in the Minor League system, Stroman has made 30 appearances (20 starts) and has compiled a 3.30 ERA and a 10.44 K/9 rate.

Breakout Player

Colby Rasmus is entering his prime, hitting for more power, and is in an ideal situation. There is a chance we already saw the best, but Rasmus could (and should) hit the next level of power hitter.

Likely Scenario

There is talent on this team. If the Blue Jays can any sort of pitching and stay healthy, they can be in contention. They have elite power, a power bullpen, and some potentially dynamic offensive players. But, way too much has to go right in a division that features four potential playoff teams with far few holes.

Final Prediction

It’ll be another tough season in Toronto as the Blue Jays struggle to 75 wins and a last place finish.

Gary Armida
Gary Armida

Orioles Analyst

First and foremost, a Father. After that, I am a writer and teacher who not only started my own company and published an i-magazine as well as a newsletter, but have been published by USA Today, Operation Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Digest, Gotham Baseball Magazine, and numerous other publications. As an educator, I have 20 years of classroom experience and am utilizing that experience in my current position as department coordinator. Wrote the book The Teacher And The Admin (https://theteacherandtheadmin.com/the-book/) and operate that website which is dedicated to making education better for kids.

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