Zach Britton

The tale of the tape paints an interesting story between the Baltimore Orioles and the Kansas City Royals, the 2014 ALCS teams vying for a trip to the World Series. The Orioles won the AL East, typically one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, and the winningest division record in baseball. The Royals battled the Tigers for supremacy in the AL Central but ended up as the first Wild Card team. The Orioles led Major League Baseball with 211 home runs; the Royals ranked last and were the only team to hit fewer than 100 home runs. The Royals led MLB with 153 stolen bases; the Orioles ranked last and were the only team to steal fewer than 50 bases.

Visit the BSL Forums to discuss the 2014 ALCS and the matchup of two of the best bullpens in baseball.

How they reached this point may be different in many respects, but the Royals and the Orioles share one common attribute: a dominant bullpen. The Royals had the best bullpen in baseball per Wins Above Replacement, with their relief pitchers earning a cumulative 5.9 fWAR. The Orioles ranked fifth, counting 4.6 fWAR from their bullpen.

The Orioles leaned on their bullpen more often, however, getting 507.2 innings from the bullpen. The Royals counted 464 relief innings this season. Baltimore’s bullpen ranked better in GB% (50.1% to Kansas City’s 45.5%) and did a better job of leaving men on base – not necessarily indicating a better bullpen, since men have to first reach base in order to be left there. In fact the Royals ranked 6th in baseball in H/9, but fell to the middle of the pack in BB/9. The Orioles flipped those, ranking 6th in BB/9 and 12th in H/9. The Royals and the Orioles bullpens tied with a 3.54 xFIP, while the Royals had a slightly lower FIP and a slightly higher ERA. At first glance, it’s hard to tell which bullpen is better, but one thing is for certain: nobody wants to mess with either of the ALCS bullpens.

One measure of bullpen ability is WPA, or Win Probability Added. One of the defining features of the ALCS bullpens is a stout set of late-innings relievers, but a dearth of reliable second-tier options. Here’s how the ALDS bullpen pitchers from each team rank in 2014 WPA:

Orioles RP WPA Royals RP WPA
Zach Britton (L) 3.27 Wade Davis 3.74
Darren O’Day 2.40 Kelvin Herrera 2.62
Andrew Miller* (L) 1.95 Greg Holland 2.62
Brad Brach 1.07 Jason Fraser 0.42
Tommy Hunter 0.55 Brandon Finnegan -0.08
Kevin Gausman** ** Tim Collins -1.31
Ubaldo Jimenez** 0.11    

Source: Orioles, Royals, FanGraphs

*Andrew Miller was traded to the Orioles midseason; his reported WPA is the combined 2014 total for the Orioles and Red Sox.

**Gausman and Jimenez spent most of 2014 as starting pitchers and WPA is either unavailable or limited. At any rate, WPA is not the best indicator of their abilities since it incorporates leverage, which is typically higher in late innings.

Because of the number of lefties in the Royals lineup and the team’s reliance on the bullpen, the Orioles might sub someone like Jimenez out for Brian Matusz (-0.47 WPA).

From WPA, it appears that the three pitchers anchoring the back of the Royals bullpen are superior to the Orioles’ big three, if only marginally for the two best RPs by WPA. The Royals, however, rostered a rookie and what appears to be a terrible bullpen option in Tim Collins. These guys, like Jimenez, may have been bullpen bridges meant to eat innings in lower-leverage situations. Finnegan did do an admirable job putting the A’s away in the Wild Card contest, and his 7 innings pitched this season are certainly not enough to pass judgement on his true ability. From what I’ve seen in the playoffs, I think it’s safe to say that he’s not going to be a negative WPA pitcher moving forward.

I also used Base Runs to estimate the ability of each bullpen as a unit by prorating each pitcher to 1450 innings, combining all stats, and then prorating that to a single 1450-inning pitcher as if the bullpen itself was one pitcher that threw every game of the 2014 season. As a result, it’s not weighted for usage. In other words, Ubaldo’s terrible outings hurt the Orioles ‘pen in BsR. For a primer on how this was done, check out my postseason predictions.

The Orioles bullpen as a unit pitched like a team that gave up 496 runs this season, while the Royals bullpen pitched like a team that gave up 409 runs. Both of these are terrific total and clearly are able to hold a slim lead for their team. For context, Adam Wainwright would have given up 425 runs if he pitched every game this season the way he pitched in his actual starts. Clayton Kershaw (the regular season version) would have given up 335.

Kansas City might have a better bullpen, or at least a better back end, than Baltimore – but so what? That’s only worth something if they have a lead to hold on to. The hard-hitting Orioles aren’t about to let that happen.

Patrick Dougherty
Patrick Dougherty

Patrick was the co-founder of Observational Studies, a blog which focused on the analysis and economics of professional sports. The native of Carroll County graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from Loyola University Maryland. Patrick works at a regional economic development and marketing firm in Baltimore, and in his free time plays lacrosse.

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