MLB: Spring Training-Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles

The AL East Champion Orioles are set to take on the visiting AL Central Champion Detroit Tigers in Game 1 of the American League Divisional Series. That’s a pretty cool sentence. It’s been a long time since someone has been able to write that. I’m glad I can bring that sentence back into the public conscience.

On Thursday, Chris Tillman takes the mound and faces off against Miguel Cabrera, who has been best hitter on the planet over the last three seasons, and a Tigers lineup that can really pump some runs. Ostensibly, Tillman will also be facing off against Max Scherzer, though the only time he’ll really see him is when he scowls across the diamond from the dugout. The Orioles lineup includes some names that nobody would have expected when the season began, but the resiliency of this team cannot be understated. A cobbled-together Baltimore lineup with rotating parts and hot hands has won 96 games and the division for the first time since 1997, and looks to win the team’s first October game since 2012. Isn’t postseason baseball the best?

Discuss your Game 1 predictions on the BSL Forums.

By now, you should have already read my postseason preview and predictions. If you haven’t, here’s a quick recap of how I’m predicting individual games, plus how I’m recommending betting lines:

  1. Strip cluster luck from the Orioles’ and Tigers’ expected lineups
  2. Strip cluster luck from the Orioles’ and Tigers’ starter
  3. Determine Pythagorean win percentage using luck-neutral run differential (I’m calling this Adjusted Pythagorean Win Percentage, or W%+)
  4. Determine the probability that each team would win using W%+
  5. Determine the implied probability that each team would win from existing Las Vegas money lines
  6. Tell you who I think will win and who I think is a good bet. These are not always the same thing.

I should note here that what you do with your money is your business and I am but an amateur gambling consultant that has literally never given gambling advice before – but I have read a book on it. What I say is a good bet isn’t necessarily a bet that I think will pay out. It’s a bet that I believe the line to be misplaced on; or, in an example, it’s an instance in which Vegas says the Tigers will win 40% of the time and my #fancystats say the Tigers will win 49% of the time. Betting on the Tigers still means you have less than 50% odds and that I expect them to lose! The value is in that you’re getting potentially getting paid like you bet on a major underdog when really, the team you took was evenly matched.

If you’re not familiar with the money line… well, neither am I. Sports books aren’t legal in Maryland. But I can tell you how to read them, in case you happen to be traveling to Las Vegas or the Internet anytime soon. And lucky you – since I’m not a gambler, I won’t be using gambler jargon like juice and vig and lay. First, baseball’s money line is different than football’s in that it does not include a spread. You just pick a winner. Easy!

A money line of 100 is even odds, but that never shows up. Sometimes the line is given in a positive or negative number. A negative number implies a favorite; a positive number implies an underdog. Here are the payouts:

– A money line of -110 means that you have to bet $110 to win $100. If you place $110 on a team that’s got a money line of -110 and they win, you will go home with $210: $110 bet + $100 winnings.

– A money line of +110 means that you have to bet $100 to win $110. If you place $100 on a team with a +110 line and they win, you will go home with $210: $100 bet + $110 winnings.

Easy enough, right? And I’m going to do all of the hard work for you! Here’s the lineups for Thursday’s ALDS Game 1 matchup between your Baltimore Orioles and the Detroit Tigers:

Tigers Orioles
2B Kinsler RF Markakis (L)
RF Hunter 1B Pearce
1B Cabrera CF Jones
DH V. Martinez (S) DH Cruz
LF JD Martinez SS Hardy
C Avila (L) LF De Aza (L)
3B Castellanos 2B Schoop
SS Romine (S) 3B Flaherty (L)
CF Davis C Joseph

Adjusting these lineups and starting pitchers to determine luck-neutral runs for and against, and then adjusted Pythagorean winning percentage (W%+), and then factoring in home-field advantage as suggested by Joe Peta, the author that came up with this process,1 gives us the following:

Team Base Runs For Base Runs Against W%+
Tigers 813.13 574.92 0.653
Orioles 808.25 640.40 0.605

The probability a given team wins isn’t as simple as its winning percentage; we must take into account the winning percentage of its opponent. The Tigers with Scherzer on the hill are a very good team, posting a W%+ of 0.653 to the Orioles’ still very good 0.605 with Tillman on the bump at home. In a matchup of a 0.653 team against a 0.605 team, there is a 55.2% probability that the 0.653 team wins. That leaves the Orioles a 44.8% chance of winning this game. These are not insurmountable odds. In fact, like the entire series, this game is a coin flip.

I’m using VegasInsiders.com’s published money lines because they’re available a few days in advance and show up first in a Google search. Vegas Insiders has assigned a -115 line to the Tigers and a +105 line to the Orioles, which creates some headaches. Since these aren’t mirror images, the probability that either team would win is over 100%. That doesn’t matter much other than being an oddity; the game is priced to encourage betting and make the house money. That also means that the money line can change between right now and game time depending on how people are betting. If the money line you’re offered looks different than what I’ve written here, do your own math to find out the winning percentages implied by the line – a larger negative number for the Tigers means they’re more likely to win.

The Tigers’ -115 line implies a 53.49% chance of Detroit winning Game 1, while the Orioles’ +105 line implies a 48.78% chance of winning on Thursday. I’ve already told you that the Tigers have a 55.2% chance of winning this game, meaning that Vegas has priced this game pretty accurately. I haven’t factored bullpen ability into this math, so I’m hedging a little and saying that I think Detroit’s real chances are about even with the money line being offered. I wouldn’t recommend betting on this one.

My heart says that the Orioles win this one, because I’m an Orioles fan and it will always say that. As I mentioned before, this game amounts to a coin flip, and might come down to handing an even game over to the Orioles bullpen – something that wasn’t factored into this math – that seems to be more capable than the Tigers’. While the Tigers might have a slight edge, they definitely don’t have Oriole magic.


1. I have no problem plugging Joe Peta’s awesome book. Read it, seriously.

Patrick Dougherty
Patrick Dougherty

Patrick was the co-founder of Observational Studies, a blog which focused on the analysis and economics of professional sports. The native of Carroll County graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from Loyola University Maryland. Patrick works at a regional economic development and marketing firm in Baltimore, and in his free time plays lacrosse.

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