An early look at the offseason and potential payroll

For my first article at BSL, I wanted to take an early, basic look at what the Orioles are looking at here in the off-season. Additionally, I wanted to briefly touch on some things I would like to see the Orioles accomplish.  Recently, MASN’s Steve Melewski wrote an article outlining the Orioles potential payroll and seeing as this was part of what I wanted to address; I figured I could respond to Steve’s article, as well as add thoughts of my own.  One of the things I like about what Melewski does for MASN is that he puts out a lot of solid, thought provoking articles, including gaining interviews. Now, I don’t always agree with Melewski, but he puts out solid work and this article is an example of that.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Now, with full disclosure, I realize that Steve is just outlining what things look like right now. He mentions that a lot of things can change, that there are unknowns, etc. I think we can all agree with that but I am still going to disagree with some of he said as well as add additional thoughts to what direction(s) they could take this off-season.

I’m not going to argue against the numbers Melewski put out there. MLB Trade Rumors.com does a very good job of arbitration projections, so while they may not be 100% accurate, they will likely be in the ballpark. When looking at the team Melewski put on paper, there are a few things that he mentions that I hope the Orioles do not do.

The first thing that I jumped out to me was the spending in the bullpen. The first name is Matusz. Of all the relievers in MLB this year, only 21 relievers (those who met the “qualified” number of innings) had a worse FIP than Matusz did. That is out of 142 relievers. Suffice it to say, that’s not good. Now, those of you who say, well who cares about FIP, that’s a nerd stat! Ok, well out of those 142 relievers, Brian’s ERA was only better than 46 relievers. So, that’s not good either. Of course, the next question is, how did BMat fare against lefties? After all, that is what is important right? Well, lefties had a BA of 221 vs him and a 672 OPS. Those numbers sound ok but there were 134 ML pitchers(relievers and starters) that posted a better slugging% vs lefties than Matusz did. There were also 68 pitchers that posted better OBP vs lefties than Brian did. Also, there were 97 pitchers who had a better BA vs lefties than Brian did. On the positive side, Brian did have a top 30 ERA vs lefties. As I said, some of these numbers include starters but he was far from spectacular this year. His Ks were up, BBs were slightly up but homers were way up. The projected salary isn’t a lot and Brian has been very good vs lefties in the past but I just don’t see how you can give him 2.5M to be an average or so reliever. Yes, the upside is there for him to be better – but I wouldn’t wager that money on that.

The next high cost in the pen is Hunter. Hunter is a solid reliever. When he hasn’t been in the closer role, he has provided quality innings for the Orioles. The velocity is better and his secondaries, while inconsistent, are better than when he was a starter but 4.4M is a big pill to swallow for a good but not great reliever. He was 95th in MLB amongst qualified relievers in WPA. People assume Hunter is a big strikeout pitcher but his K rate was well under 7, which is well below league average. His strength is command, where he walked under 2 per 9 IP this year. While he is a good arm and a solid reliever; I can’t see even spending 3M on him, much less 4.4.

So, that is almost 7M in savings right there.

The next thing to address is the rotation. As Melewski points out, he included 6 starters, knowing 1 will be in the pen. The question is who? This is another area of the payroll where we can save money. I don’t see how we can go into next season with those 6 guys on the team, assuming they are healthy. Showalter and Duquette have been known to yo yo guys up and down in the organization. They have gone to 6 man staffs for a time. They have skipped guys to give some of these starters extra rest. They have had to do that. They didn’t have the extra arms to fall back on and the arms they did have, were better with longer rest and/or couldn’t pile up innings(see Gausman) but that problem will be lessened next year.

We know a healthy Tillman can go 200ish innings. Gausman can be unleashed next year with no restrictions. Personally, I feel there is a good chance Gausman will be our best starter next year, provided he works hard on that third pitch he needs. That third pitch will also help prevent him from being sent back-and-forth to the Minors to the Bigs.

That leaves us with Chen, Gonzo, Norris and Jimenez. Jimenez, if for no other reason than his contract, will make the rotation, as he should. 2014 was a lost year for him but the upside is there. A full season off-season of training and working on his mechanics should do wonders for him. He didn’t get a full off-season in last year because he didn’t want to hurt himself before signing a deal and he signed the deal late in the off-season. So, I would expect him to be in the rotation. That leaves the other 3. Of those 3 pitchers, only Gonzalez is under team control beyond next year. Chen, a free agent after 2015, had his relatively cheap option picked up and Norris enters his final arbitration season next year. Norris, like most of the starters, ended the season strong and he has that bulldog mentality teams like to have in the rotation. The issue with Norris is salary. While 8ishM isn’t overly exorbitant, he is on a team where there are 5 other starters who are as good as he is, so it is tough to justify paying him at that level.

If you are the Orioles, you could trade whichever of these guys fetches you the most; with  Norris being the guy I think you shop. I think his combination of salary, age, stuff and service time make him the most valuable out of these guys. While Gonzalez has a lower salary and more service time, I think most would view Norris better(although I disagree) and, more importantly, look at Norris as a guy they can rely on to throw more innings and get deeper in games.

The Orioles have holes on this team and in my opinion – can not go into next year with all 6 of these guys on the team (unless some radical happens and you trade Britton for a big package and want one of them as the closer or something). Outside of something unforeseen like that, I just can’t see allocating so many resources on these guys with a team that has holes and needs to get improve their farm system for the long term good while also focusing on 2015.

People will say, well you need more than 5 starters. They will say that guys will get hurt and you need depth. I agree with those people but it is tough to spend those resources on that depth. Besides, we do have some additional options. Bundy will hopefully be ready to contribute by June or so. We have TJ McFarland. Also, there will be guys we can add via MiL Free Agents, Trades, etc. There is more than 1 way to skin a cat and the Orioles need to get a little creative to acquire that depth. Fortunately, that is something Duquette has done a good job of. If they do move one of these starters, I think we should feel confident that Duquette will make the necessary moves to replace them.

Moving to the offense, the Orioles have some interesting decisions to make. I am not one who thinks it’s a slam dunk to tender Davis a contract, unless you know you can trade him. You have to worry about how good Davis is and  consider the likely cost ($11M+?) you are likely going to have to spend to have him part of the 2015 roster. The upside is obviously there and he was unlucky to an extent last year, so a bounce-back should be expected. The question is, how much of a bounce-back and is that worth the expected salary? I expect him to be here next year and we will just have to hope he does well.

Wieters was on his way to an MVP caliber season before TJ surgery sidelined his season. The Orioles got unexpected solid play at C without him and that helped get them to the playoffs – but Wieters is clearly an upgrade. That is especially true if his adjustments at the plate, have him hitting at a better than league average catcher level. One question for him, is how good his arm will be? Ultimately, since he is a FA after next year and isn’t signing long term with us anytime soon, exploring a trade makes sense. What remains to be determined, is how much did the surgery hurt his market and is he worth more to you in 2015, a year where you should be going for a WS title, than he would be in trade? I suspect the answer to that is yes but you still need to shop him.

We all assume Markakis will be re-signed. The talk has been a 4 year deal. Steve mentions his salary at 12M. I suspect if 4/48 was on the table, Nick would have signed that so, I think if he gets 4 years, the salary will be more in the 9-10M range. I feel Markakis is very important to this offense. He’s a solid hitter, good on-base guy, durable and a solid defender (although not GG worthy). However, he goes through long stretches where he looks horrible, the power is down, and is on he wrong side of 30. You have to be careful here. I want Markakis to return, but not at any cost; and I hope the Orioles don’t get to caught up in the emotional side of things here.

Melewski left De Aza on the team. As of right now, I would agree that a De Aza/Pearce platoon in LF is likely. You can argue if that is ideal but we should be able to be good enough with those guys. Pearce won’t be as good in 2015 as he was in 2014 but he has always hit lefties well, so he should be okay there. The only issue I have is that the O’s may be able to find a similar platoon for less money and if the Front Office feels they can do that, so be it.

Right now, the team is set in many ways. Offensively, DH is the area where we don’t have anyone, which brings us to Cruz. Obviously, he was a steal in 2014, but the question now is about what he does going forward. He has a body and skill set that could make him decline quickly. I would really like to have him in Baltimore next year and I would be happy to have him in 2016 – but 2017 and beyond, at 15+M a year? That’s asking a lot and I wouldn’t touch that if I were the Os.

Personally, I place a larger importance on Andrew Miller. Though, we do have to remember that this was Miller’s first dominant year as a reliever, so you can’t be too aggressive (there has been some talk of 3/30 for him, which is ridiculous to me). However, if you can sign him for up to 4 years at 7ishM a year – which is a lot for a reliever who isn’t a closer –  I would swallow that pill and sign him (because he should be more valuable than a typical closer). It should be noted, that also happens to be a similar salary to what Matusz and Hunter will make and yes, I would much prefer Miller vs those two.

Of course, how high ownership is willing to take the payroll plays a part in all of these decisions. Between the extra postseason money, advanced season ticket sales revenue, attendance rising and MASN becoming more profitable – one would believe that a payroll in the 120-130M range should be easily obtainable.

Overall, I think the 2015 team is basically set but the Orioles need to improve in some areas and also look towards the long term. Trading a few guys and non tendering others will help with those things.