Fact & Opinion: O’s Edition

With the usual apologies to former Baltimore Sun Columnist (and current BaltimoreRavens.com contributor) John Eisenberg, here is another submission of my version of ‘Fact & Opinion.’

You can discuss this on the BSL board here.

Fact: Chris Davis had a slash line of .286/.370/.634 in 2013. In his 584 ab’s, Davis had 96 xbh’s, including 53 homers. He walked 72 times, while striking out 199 times. He obliterated RHP (1.143 OPS). His .421 wOBA was the 3rd highest in the Majors. His fWAR was 6.8, making him the 8th highest rated player of 2013. He had a 1.109 OPS before the All-Star Game, a .854 OPS after.

Opinion: I don’t think anyone expects Davis to match his 2013 production. With a year that ridiculous, some regression should be expected. A safe bet is for his 2014 numbers to be between his 2012 and 2013 seasons. Davis’ power to all fields is remarkable. In ’13, his BB% increased to 10.7% over the 6.6% in 2012. Part of that was increased patience (helping lead to the breakout), the other part was him breaking out, and pitchers being more patient with him. His K% did decrease slightly in ’13. How his BB% and K% numbers go in ’14 will likely tell the larger story of his overall numbers for the year.

Bottom-line with Davis is that some regression can be expected and will be fine. However, the O’s need him to remain a force.

Fact: 2013 was the least productive season of Nick Markakis’ 8 year MLB career. He is signed through this 2014 year, with a mutual option existing between him and team for 2015.

Opinion: One of the most tiring discussions of every Spring Training are all of the variations of articles with the theme of, “Player X is in the best shape of his life.” That said, I was interested by every Markakis quote we saw this Winter about his improved health. Him being in position to work out, and strength train for the first time in a couple of off-seasons had me encouraged. The signs this Spring have been very encouraging. As fun as the 2012 season was, one regret we had was that Markakis was not in position to play that post-season. He had played very strong ball in 2012 when he was on the field (the time missed that year, potentially helping him perform better when he was able to play). With all the losing he endured during 2006-11, I felt horrible for him as he looked at his teammates playing those post-season games vs. Texas, and New York. His play in ’14 will help determine if the O’s get back to the post-season this year. My expectation is a return to career norms. I think if he was limited to 145 games or so, that would help keep him fresh. 40+ doubles feels a bit greedy. 30+ doubles, and an on-base % at .360+ is what I’m hoping for.

Fact: The Orioles were 5th overall in runs, 3rd in slugging percentage, and 19th in on-base percentage last year.

Opinion: Do you see any reason to think the O’s will have a different offensive profile in ’14? I don’t.

Fact: The Orioles used 14 different starting pitchers in 2013. The starters were 12th overall in the American League in Team ERA (4.57).  (Tampa Bay’s starters 3.81, Boston’s 3.84, New York’s 4.08.) The O’s were 24th overall in the Majors in Quality Starts.

Opinion: With the addition of Jimenez, I generally feel pretty optimistic about the rotation. Tillman, Jimenez, Gonzalez, Chen, Norris is a solid 1-5. If they regularly take the ball, they will routinely give the O’s a chance to win. You love having Gausman waiting in the wings.  Britton, Yoon, McFarland, S. Johnson, J. Santana, E. Rodriguez, M. Wright, etc represent solid internal depth and options as well.

If you told me the O’s starters would end the year with a 4.00 era, I would tell you that I expect the O’s to win the Division. A 4.00 cumulative starters era seems a bit optimistic in my opinion though. Ideally you are hoping that Tillman replicates his 2nd half last year. That Jimenez is a solid #2 caliber starter. You hope that Gonzalez / Chen / Norris could combine to provide 540 innings of competitive ball. It’s also reasonable to think that if there are injuries or under performance; Gausman would be a viable replacement. A viable replacement with the upside to potentially be a difference maker.

Fact: Jonathan Schoop, Ryan Flaherty, and Jemile Weeks each have options remaining. CBS Sports reported today that the O’s have interest in Seattle Mariners infielder Ryan Franklin.

Opinion: I went into Spring Training expecting Flaherty to be the Opening Day starter at 2nd. Numerous MLB Analysts and Writers that BSL Radio has interviewed this Winter have echoed similar thoughts. The idea that Flaherty showed improved defense at 2nd last year, has some pop. An interesting player who could provide near league average production at a bargain price. I figured he would get 2-3 months of nearly everyday ab’s (depending on his performance, and how Weeks played during his opportunities). Basically I thought Flaherty would have a chance to really grab the position, with the O’s reevaluating things in late May / early June. That if Flaherty had not locked things down, that Schoop would then have the potential to take the job. Obviously contingent on how Schoop was producing at AAA (both offensively and defensively). A few weeks into ST, I’m looking at things a bit differently. Orioles Manager Buck Showalter has been quoted several times about how impressed he is with Schoop around the bag. So you take those comments, and combine them with Schoop being bigger and stronger. Also factor into the equation that Schoop is hitting, and showing extra-base pop here in Spring Training; and you wonder how much ground he has made up? I guess I think it would still be a surprise if Schoop took over 2nd to start the year, but it’s possible.

Another reason it is possible is Machado. The O’s aren’t going to rush Machado back. If Machado isn’t ready to begin the year, it’s quite possible that Flaherty is the 3rd baseman to begin the year. If Flaherty begins the year at 3rd, will it be Schoop at 2nd? Maybe. Of course it could also be Weeks, with Schoop back at AAA.

Certainly an interesting situation to watch.

Franklin? I don’t see a huge need, but it’s a chance to obtain some talent at a bargain price. Even with the Rays and Mets also interested, how much can he cost when the Mariners don’t have a position for him?

Instead of trading for Franklin, I might be more interested in signing Stephen Drew if the O’s want another option.

Fact: In 2013, the Orioles were 10th in Defensive Efficiency. The O’s set ML team defensive records with 54 errors, a .991 fielding percentage, and 119 error less games.

Opinion: I think it will be interesting seeing Lough in LF on a near daily basis. Most of his perceived value is tied to his outstanding defensive metrics in and RF & LF for the Royals last year.

Fact: Showalter was recently quoted as saying it was possible the O’s could open the season with 13 pitchers, and 12 position players.

Opinion: Not a huge deal if that is just for a few games to begin the season, but hopefully not likely. I’m never a fan of leaving the bench that thin. If the O’s go with the more typical 7 man bullpen to begin the year, I would think 6 of the 7 figure to be Webb, O’Day, Hunter, Matusz, Britton, and McFarland (could also see McFarland back to AAA to start).

I would think that Yoon and Johnson figure to be starting in the Minors. I know Aceves has had some early troubles, seems like he could still make the pen. Could see Stinson as well. Maybe Meek?

By the time Patton is ready to return from his suspension, injuries and or non-performance will likely have opened up an opportunity.

Overall, I think the bullpen will be dependent on the rotation in-front of them. If those guys do their job, the bullpen should be good.

The bullpen looks better in my opinion, if Webb really can be Johnson light, and he takes over as the Closer.