As teams settle into Spring Training, most organizations are still looking to add pieces to the organization. Most can filed away as organization depth, but some players still available can actually make an impact. The Orioles seem to be done with their shopping spree after adding Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz, but they have been linked to another big name. Rumors are swirling that the Orioles are close to signing Johan Santana to a Minor League deal.

The move, to say this least, is interesting. The soon to be 35 year old is coming back from his second major shoulder surgery and has just begun throwing from a mound. His troublesome shoulder capsule has taken two of the past three seasons from Santana; it seems like so long ago that Santana was the very best in the business.

{Discuss Santana and the AL East on the BSL Board}

Signing Santana would essentially be a lottery ticket for the Orioles. During his throwing sessions, Santana hasn’t topped 81 MPH, but the radar gun hasn’t been that important to Johan Santana. Since 2007, Santana hasn’t topped 91 MPH and even found success working in the high 80’s during the 2010 and 2012 seasons. While he likely picks up some velocity as he gets stronger, Santana will attempt to reinvent himself. He is the type of pitcher who is capable of such a change. Even during his final season in New York, a season in which he averaged 88 MPH with his fastball, Santana produced above average contact rates. With the league average at 80% contact with pitches in the strike zone, Santana elicited swings and misses with strikes at a 25 percent rate. If Santana can take the mound, he has the type of arsenal and pitching intelligence to get batters out.

The role he would play for the Orioles will be interesting as well. There has been speculation that Santana will pitch in relief. He is certainly capable, but it would be a mistake to make him a situational lefty. In 2012, left handed batters hit .281/.322/.474 against him. In 2010, left handers hit .272/.322/.384. Even during his incredible prime, left handed batters had more success. With a deadly changeup, Santana has always been more effective against right handed batters.

He can still be an effective relief pitcher for the Orioles. While he likely isn’t back until the All-Star Break, Santana can rehab under the supervision of Rick Peterson, who coached him for a half season in New York. The move would have nothing but upside for the Orioles. If Santana can work his way back and give the Orioles multiple innings in relief and perhaps, eventually, start, he would be a quality addition. Because he never relied on a fastball, always had excellent control, and used his changeup effectively, Santana can make a positive contribution in any role. Expectations should be tempered as he is 35 years old and working his way back from yet another surgery, but if he can take the mound, he will give the Orioles positive results in any role.

 

The World Outside of Baltimore: Key Players

New York Yankees

The Yankees are fielding an older team, even in their newly rebuilt model. While the pitching staff is full of questions, the Yankees are built on the idea that the offense can carry them. One of the more underrated players they have signed is Carlos Beltran, a should-be Hall of Famer. The only thing that should concern the Yankees with Beltran is health. He has proven durable over the past few years, but he is entering his age 37 season. With the DH spot likely to be rotated, Beltran is a good bet to stay on the field.

The real key to the Yankees’ offense is the return of Mark Teixeira. After being limited to just 15 games in 2013 with a wrist injury, Teixeira has yet to take the field in a spring training game. That is by design, but his power presence is vital to the Yankees. The problem is that the Yankees won’t really know if Teixeira is back until May or June as he is a notorious slow starter. Before an injury riddled 2012 season, Teixeira had posted eight consecutive 30 home run seasons. In a lineup that boasts Brian McCann, Beltran, and Alfonso Soriano as the power supply, Teixeira is the balance of that power. If he can’t return to being a 25 to 30 home run guy, the Yankees will relying on players like Kelly Johnson to fill the void and their speed/on base percentage guys to do more of the work. He may not be a .500 slugger anymore, but he must return to being that .475 type slugger in order for the Yankees lineup to have a balance of power and speed guys.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are doing their usual Spring Training bit as they assimilate new players onto their 25 man roster. Catcher Ryan Hanigan will help keep defensive specialist Jose Molina fresh while adding a strong on base presence (.355 OBP for his career). David DeJesus will get the bulk of the starts in left field. Unlike years past, the Rays do return the bulk of their offense. This time, it is the pitching staff that has a change.

As usual, the Rays will be depending on their young pitching talent. Matt Moore is already a star. David Price is the leader of the staff. Alex Cobb showed he can be a quality middle of the rotation pitcher. But, more will be expected from Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi. Early on, Odorizzi will likely step into the rotation for the injured Jeremy Hellickson. The 24 year old right hander, who was acquired along with Wil Myers last season in the James Shields trade, showed improved control while at triple-A for the Rays. In 22 triple-A starts for the Durham Bulls, he posted a 25.2 percent strikeout rate and an 8.1 percent walk rate, both the best of his minor league career. To find sustained success, the four pitch pitcher who averages 90 MPH on his fastball, must show improved control and a better ground ball rate. He improved greatly during his first year in Tampa, which isn’t a surprise considering the Rays ability to develop pitchers. The Rays will likely use him as their fifth starter. Most organizations would be thrilled to run out a 24 year old like Odorizzi as their fifth starter. The Rays pitching depth is unquestioned. If Odorizzi can make good on his promise, the deepest staff in the league just got deeper.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox had a magical season that culminated in a championship. They enter their defense season with many questions. Their biggest are on the mound. Outside of Jon Lester, the Red Sox have a rotation full of questions. Their answers have a potential upside that can lead to the playoffs. But, there is a danger for some severe regression. John Lackey pitched well in his return from Tommy John Surgery. Can he do it again after pitching in the playoffs? Jake Peavy has always had poor mechanics and is susceptible to injury with each pitch. Can he make it through the season again? Felix Doubront is no longer depth. Can he find consistency in the strike zone? The true key is Clay Buchholz. The 29 year old right hander made 16 spectacular starts for the Red Sox last season, posting a 1.74 ERA (2.78 FIP). The dirty secret of the 2013 World Series champions is that they had just one starter, Lester, give over 200 innings. That is way too much pressure on the bullpen. They won’t be able to repeat that in 2013 and return to the playoffs. Clay Buchholz’s ability to make more than the 16 starts and give more than 108 innings is key to the Red Sox’s chances.

Toronto Blue Jays

It has been a couple of seasons since Jose Bautista has been completely healthy. Over the past two seasons, injuries have limited him to an average of just 105 games. Yet, during that limited time, he has averaged .251/.358/.510 with 19 doubles and 28 home runs. The scary part: he looks healthier than he has been in quite some time this spring. If the Blue Jays are to rebound from their horrific 2012 season, Bautista has to stay on the field. If he can, he is capable of 40 to 50 home runs and an on base percentage north of .370. That type of production not only puts him in the MVP conversation, but gives fellow slugger Edwin Encarnacion some protection, With a top three of Jose Reyes, Bautista, and Encarnacion providing elite level production, the rest of the lineup doesn’t have added pressure. As is, the Blue Jays are hoping for bounce back years from Brett Lawrie and Melky Cabrera as well as repeat seasons from Colby Rasmus and Adam Lind. Bautista is the key as his presence lengthens the lineup and gives the Blue Jays the potential to have the best power hitting lineup in the league. With an obvious hole at second base and many pitching questions, the Blue Jays will need to power their way through games in order to compete. A healthy Jose Bautista gives them that opportunity.

 

Gary Armida
Gary Armida

Orioles Analyst

First and foremost, a Father. After that, I am a writer and teacher who not only started my own company and published an i-magazine as well as a newsletter, but have been published by USA Today, Operation Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Digest, Gotham Baseball Magazine, and numerous other publications. As an educator, I have 20 years of classroom experience and am utilizing that experience in my current position as department coordinator. Wrote the book The Teacher And The Admin (https://theteacherandtheadmin.com/the-book/) and operate that website which is dedicated to making education better for kids.

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