Some Keys to The Orioles Playing Late Into October

Tomorrow, on the last day of March, the Baltimore Orioles will begin their 2014 season. Many people around baseball think the O’s have a good talent-base, but are likely to finish 3rd or 4th in the loaded American League East. I’m just excited to get the season started with a team that has a reasonable chance of playing significant games in October.

In 1966, 1970, and 1983 the Orioles were World Champions. Will the O’s add a 4th World Title in ’14? The odds say no, but I think the talent on the roster is good enough to have those types of aspirations.

During those dark days of 1998-2011, the worst part of every season was that there was no suspense with Opening Day.  You went into every year knowing the O’s were an organization hoping that things would break right for a run towards .500, with zero chance of getting to the Playoffs. 

Below are what I see as some keys to the O’s this year. The bottom-line is this. Coming off back-to-back winning seasons, there is room to dream as the dawn of a new year awaits.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

1) In 2013 the O’s had the profile of a team with strong slugging, and mediocre on-base % skills. However, as Dan Moroz recently argued at Camden Depot, even though the O’s finished 5th overall in Runs Scored, a large part of that was the increased slugging at home within the confines of Oriole Park at Camden Yards. I agree with Dan’s comment that, “A league average hitting team playing in Camden Yards is expected to score an above average number of runs.” Of course, since this team still has plenty of sluggers (and more importantly will still be playing 1/2 their games at OPACY); they should again be expected to score an above average number of runs. Right now, I expect an offense that will be very hot and cold. At-times bashing opponents into submission, and at other times seeming rather anemic. Part of that is just baseball. The other-part of that is the construction of the roster. The O’s chances of post-season play only improve if the O’s offense can improve their ability to get on-base, and become more consistently productive overall.

2) How long is Machado out? My current expectation is that he’ll likely be back by the end of April. MASN’s Dave Johnson was on the show ‘Wall-to-Wall Baseball,’ yesterday and said some people have rumored Machado could be out until June. That would be unexpected, but certainly would have an impact if proven true. Nearly 30 games without Machado could impact where the O’s finish in the AL East. 60 plus games without the star 3rd basemen might prove to be too much to overcome.

3) As this 2014 season prepares to start, there is a lot of discussion locally about the bullpen. To begin the year, the pen is comprised of Hunter, O’Day, Webb, Matusz, Britton, Meek, and Stinson. Plenty of quality arms in that mix, but there are concerns about the splits.

O’Day struggled vs. lefties in ’13, but was strong vs. both sides in ’12. Hopefully the change he has been working on this Spring helps.

Matusz has evolved into an exceptional LOOGY, who still struggles vs. righties. In ’13, Matusz faced only 15 more lefties vs. righties though. Has he made any adjustments to be more effective, or will he be limited to LOOGY duty only?

With Britton out of options, we were interested to see how Spring Training would go for him. He performed well, looking exceptional at times. Out of the pen, he’s going to have to prove he can pitch on back-to-back days, and consistently throw strikes. He could still be in the mix to start at some point this year (due to injuries, or ineffectiveness from the rotation). I’m curious to see how Showalter utilizes him as a reliever. Hopeful that he’s able to eat up bats with the 2 seamer, and get a lot of grounders. Working an inning or so at a time, he should be able to max out.

Meek’s a former All-Star who has gotten healthy, and also earned his spot on the roster. What a boon it would be to the pen as a whole, if he got back to his 2010 levels.

Saves are overrated but closing will be an adjustment for Hunter. Should there be a tremendous difference between pitching in the 8th or the 9th? No, but there is a human element to the game. Being the guy in the 9th called to close games out in Yankee Stadium, and Fenway will be new experiences for him. That said, Hunter should get a chance to run up plenty of saves. He will allow his share of homers, but I like that he typically doesn’t hurt himself with walks. Like with O’Day, and Matusz; Hunter had his own split issues last year (lefties had a .857 OPS in 170 ab’s). It would be great for him and the team for him to have a big April, and really seize the job.

If Hunter has a couple early Blown Saves, will we see Showalter move to a ‘Closer by Committee’? In some ways you could argue that would be best for the team. Just go with the hot hand, and match-up appropriately. However, this is another issue where I think the human element component has to be considered. Year-after-year, we hear relievers say they perform better when they know how they will be used each night.

If the O’s make a switch from Hunter closing at some point, my current expectation is that Webb will get the next opportunity. Closing or not, Webb’s performance will be very important to the bullpen as a whole.

4) The biggest key to the O’s bullpen will likely be the rotation in-front of them. The Orioles used 14 different starting pitchers in 2013. The starters were 12th overall in the American League in Team ERA (4.57).  (Tampa Bay’s starters 3.81, Boston’s 3.84, New York’s 4.08.) The O’s were 24th overall in the Majors in Quality Starts. ERA and Quality Starts are not the best way to evaluate pitchers, but this gives a general idea of the lack of effectiveness O’s starters had last year.

How many starts and innings do Tillman, Jimenez, Chen, Gonzalez, and Norris provide? Tillman out-pitched his peripherals a bit last year, but enters 2014 having been an effective starter over his last 48 starts. Turning 26 on April 15th, does have further upside?

Jimenez does not have the guy he was at his height with the Rockies, or the 2nd half last year with Cleveland. He does need to be a reliable 2/3 starter.

One of the reasons the O’s made the Playoffs in 2012, was that Chen provided 190+ innings. In ’13 he was limited to 23 starts and 137 innings. Will he consistently take the ball every 5th day this year? How effective will he be?

In-terms of 4th or 5th starters, I’m pretty comfortable with Gonzalez, and Norris. Both have their limitations, but it’s not unreasonable to think they could combine for 360 league average (compared to other 4th and 5th starters) innings. It’s also not unreasonable to think you will want to improve on their performance at some point.

The AAA rotation to begin ’14 is Gausman, McFarland, S. Johnson, Wright, and Yoon. With Eduardo Rodriguez at Bowie, and Bundy and Santana likely working their ways back to a mound after June.

You need Tillman, and Jimenez to lead; but there is a good amount of potentially useable depth. At the minimum, you need the 3rd – 5th starters to provide regular innings.

A 4.00 cumulative ERA for the O’s starters seems a bit optimistic. A drop to a 4.10 overall ERA seems possible, and would be a huge improvement vs. 2013.

5) The aforementioned Gausman is a huge wildcard for this O’s team. At some point during this year, he is going to join the O’s rotation. I think it is important to balance out the expectations for him. He has better stuff than anyone on the O’s Opening Day roster. He is also just entering his 2nd full professional season. When he does ascend back to the Majors, my expectation is that we will see examples of both his talent and inexperience. Times where he looks overwhelming, and times where he looks overwhelmed. He doesn’t have to follow that path of up-and-down results though. The ability is there. What if he gets locked in, and gives the O’s that high-ceiling arm they need to front the rotation? That possibility exists. If Gausman quickly finds his way to Baltimore, and consistently performs; the O’s are going to be extremely formidable.

6) Like most people, I’m expecting Davis to remain very productive – but to experience some regression from his superb 2013 season. To help make up the difference of a less productive Davis, the O’s need Markakis, and Wieters to provide more.

Markakis had an excellent 2nd half in 2012, and with him being able to train (vs. rehab) this off-season, I think we see him rebound to closer to his career averages in ’14. 30+ doubles, and an on-base % at .360+ is what I’m hoping for.

I’m also pretty optimistic about Wieters rebounding some.

Count me as one that believes Showalter has to do a better job of finding opportunities to rest his regulars. With Markakis and Wieters in-particular, I think additional time-off is going to be a key to their performance rebounding.

7) In 2013, the Orioles were 10th in Defensive Efficiency. The O’s set ML team defensive records with 54 errors, a .991 fielding percentage, and 119 error less games.

What will the defense be like in ’14? Again, how many games does Machado miss? Cruz is going to be the regular DH, but Young and Pearce also both made the Opening Day roster. Is Lough (with his excellent OF defense) going to be the regular starter in LF, or is there going to be more of a platoon?

Hardy has played 158, and 159 games the past two seasons. Will he again stay healthy? His glove, and the steadiness that provides at Short is huge for his team. (For those that would counter by saying that Machado could easily replace during the year if Hardy was lost for any significant amount of time – I would disagree. If Machado had gone into ’14 healthy, and knowing he was replacing Hardy, I’m sure he would be a fine SS. Having spent all Winter preparing, it’s not hard for me to envision him being more than adequate. However, with the time Machado has missed, it would be awfully hard to ask him to move over to SS in-season if need arose. Not impossible, but difficult.)

8) The American League East is the best division in baseball, and talent-wise I don’t think it is particularly close. If the O’s want to have a deep Post-season run, they have to reach the Playoffs first. To win the Division, you have to be thinking 95 wins. To be a Wild Card team, you will likely need 89-92 wins. The O’s were 36-40 against the East last year. That won’t get it done. If the O’s can win 43 Division games, I think they will be good shape. In March/April, the O’s have 19 games vs. the Division. Getting to May with a +.500 record vs. the East would be a good start.

8a) Beyond play in the Division, I’m hoping for 50 wins at home, and a .500 record ont he road. Momentum might be the next day’s starter, but the cliche I really buy into is the importance of focusing-on, and winning series.