Last week I took a look at what Oliver, one of the most accurate projection systems out there, thinks of the O’s hitters going into 2014. For that particular post, I took a look at some of the position battles on the roster, specifically the players vying for spots in left field and second base. This edition, focusing on the pitchers will look primarily at what O’s fans can expect from some of the starting pitchers. We’ll also touch on the bullpen briefly, but their performances are more difficult to project given the amount of innings they throw in a given season, and the lack of defined roles at this point.

Discuss the O’s pitchers in 2014, and what Oliver projects for them on the BSL forums here.

Just a quick review of the basics – Oliver is the bran-child of Brian Cartwright, and is used by several MLB teams to one degree or another. One of those teams actually happens to be the Orioles.

For the purpose of generalizing the projections by Oliver, I’m going to look at FIP rather than ERA. Oliver doesn’t produce WAR for pitchers, and FIP is the most accurate measure of how a pitcher performs on the components of his performance that he can control.

Interestingly, Oliver likes some of the youngest Orioles better than the veterans. The two best starting pitchers as far as FIP are Kevin Guasman (3.98) and Dylan Bundy (4.16), followed by Wei-Yin Chen (4.22), Bud Norris (4.25), and Miguel Gonzalez (4.35). Oliver does not look too kindly at the leader of the staff Chris Tillman, as it projects a 4.65 FIP for Tillman in 2014.

Might this happen a lot more for Gausman in 2014? (June 27, 2013 - Source: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America)

Might this happen a lot more for Gausman in 2014?
(June 27, 2013 – Source: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America)

Among the starters, Oliver projects Bud Norris to lead the team in K/9 at 7.78 strikeouts per nine innings. Bringing up the rear in the rotation would be Chen at 6.44 according to the projections. What Chen would lack in K’s though, he makes up for in a low walk rate, as Oliver projects him to walk just 2.43 batters per 9 innings. The worst starting pitcher projection for walk rate? That would be Bud Norris, who Oliver projects to walk 3.41 batters per nine innings.

Oliver has 7 Oriole pitchers putting up an ERA below 4 next season. That includes 4 starters: Gonzalez (3.76), Chen (3.79), Bundy (3.83), and Gausman (3.94). It also includes 3 relievers: O’Day (3.38), Patton (3.50), and Hunter (3.76).

At the other end of the spectrum there are 3 pitchers with projections for ERAs above 5. All 3 are bullpen arms: Stinson (5.38), Berry (5.65), Belfiore (5.88). It’s unlikely that any of those three get significant time in the ‘pen this season unless something goes horribly wrong. Other recent acquisitions who don’t have rosy projections include Kelvin De La Cruz (4.88 ERA, 4.92 FIP), Edgmer Escalona (4.47 ERA, 4.70 FIP), and Brad Brach (4.44 ERA, 4.44 FIP).

Once again, I’ll provide the caveat that these projections aren’t likely to be incredibly accurate for any given player, but that on the whole they have credibility. I don’t expect every pitcher I’ve mentioned to go out and post the exact FIP or ERA Oliver projects for them, but it does give us a way of looking at potential bullpen or rotation options. For example, if the bullpen is being set up with Tim Berry likely to get a lot of innings, it’s probably a bad sign for the team’s hopes for contention.

The biggest wild card in these projections are the performances of Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. Oliver projects them to both produce exceptionally well given the difficulties both have put up with over the past season. Bundy won’t be back until mid-summer most likely, but given his pedigree it’s possible he could quickly become a top 5 pitcher in the organization again. Gausman still has a few things to figure out, but the talent he showed out of the bullpen last year is difficult to dismiss.

Let’s hope that more than a few of the O’s pitchers can out-perform the projections that Oliver has for them.

Jeff Long
Jeff Long

Jeff was the owner of the Orioles blog Warehouse Worthy, which focused on making advanced statistics a part of the conversation for the average fan. Outside of baseball, Jeff is a graduate of Loyola University where he received his Bachelor’s and Master’s in Business Administration. The Maryland native currently works for an Advertising Agency in downtown Baltimore. Previously a contributor to Beyond the Boxscore, he joined Baseball Prospectus in September 2014. You can reach him at [email protected].

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