Paper Orioles (06/25/2013)

Here we are, twelve weeks in.  If you want a refresher on the models used in this post, be sure to go to the original post this year.  It can be found here.

Expected Wins by the Baltimore Orioles using Five Projections (6/25/2013)

mJS PWE mBP Parcells fWAR
4/1/2013 72.6 81.0 74.9 81.0 81.0
4/8/2013 73.5 97.1 75.3 81.0 115.9
4/15/2013 73.9 88.0 76.1 81.0 94.5
4/22/2013 75.3 90.4 77.6 90.0 86.2
4/29/2013 77.1 98.0 79.4 97.2 90.3
5/6/2013 78.0 95.5 80.9 96.2 87.7
5/13/2013 79.3 95.9 82.0 98.1 91.1
6/25/2013 80.8 85.8 83.2 88.4 88.1

It has been over a month since I last reviewed the different models.  The models using preseason projection models (mJS and BP) are slowly moving upward in the 80 wins territory while the other models as rolling backwards.  They all appear to be converging into the mid 80s.  One thing to note that since May 13th, the Orioles’ pitching has been near replacement level having only earned 0.2 fWAR.  Their past month and a half has been fully on the shoulders of the team’s bats.

Baseball Prospectus‘ playoff probability of the team continues to increase: 5% -> 6.5% ->7.9% -> 11% -> 16.4% -> 22.9% -> 28.1% -> 30.9%.

AL Final Standings by fWAR (6/25/2013)

Team Wins fWAR Final Rank
Tigers 42 29.5 102.9 Central
Red Sox 45 23.9 95.4 East
Rangers 44 21.9 94.1 West
Athletics 44 18.9 89.0 WC1
Orioles 42 19.1 88.1 WC2
Rays 40 20.7 87.8
Yankees 41 14.7 83.6
Indians 39 15.4 82.4
Blue Jays 38 13.8 79.6
Royals 35 14 78.2
Angels 33 16 76.4
Twins 34 11.8 75.2
ChiSox 31 11.6 71.3
Mariners 34 9.5 69.5
Astros 29 2.8 57.1

The Orioles have gotten back into the playoff picture with fWAR modeling.

NL Final Standings by fWAR (6/25/2013)

Team Wins fWAR Final Rank
Cardinals 47 22.3 97.5 Central
Reds 45 20.5 92.6 WC1
Pirates 46 16 89.4 WC2
Braves 44 18.3 89.2 East
Rockies 39 22.3 88.6 West
Dbacks 41 16.7 85.9
Giants 38 18.8 84.5
Padres 39 11.5 76.7
Nationals 37 10.9 75.2
Cubs 31 15 74.7
Dodgers 33 13.4 74.1
Phillies 36 10.6 72.7
Mets 30 11.2 70.4
Brewers 31 10.3 69.1
Marlins 25 4.8 56.1
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About the author


Jon Shepherd  

Jon Shepherd founded the Baltimore Orioles blog Camden Depot in 2007. In addition to Baltimore Orioles analysis, the blog also focuses on qualitative and quantitative approaches to assessing baseball in general as well as providing mainstream reviews and commentary on substances alleged to performance enhancing. Dr. Shepherd’s writing has been featured on ESPN, and his blog has been part of the ESPN Sweetspot Network since May 2011. He has made radio and podcast appearances for Orioles’ centered programs.


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