Paper Orioles: 9/10/2013

The last time we visited the models, it was the All Star Break.  They stood 4.5 games back of the division leading Red Sox and 1 game behind the Texas Rangers for the second Wild Card.  Almost two months later and the Red Sox have added another 4.5 games to their lead over the Orioles.  Baltimore also finds themselves now 2 games behind the second Wild Card, now occupied by the Tampa Bay Rays.  In other words, the team with its additions of Bud Norris, Scott Feldman, Francisco Rodriguez, and Mike Morse have tread water.  Treading water is not a bad thing, but the team needs to excel over the next three weeks in order to see post season baseball.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

What do the projections say?

mJS PWE mBP Parcells fWAR
4/1/2013 72.6 81.0 74.9 81.0 81.0
4/8/2013 73.5 97.1 75.3 81.0 115.9
4/15/2013 73.9 88.0 76.1 81.0 94.5
4/22/2013 75.3 90.4 77.6 90.0 86.2
4/29/2013 77.1 98.0 79.4 97.2 90.3
5/6/2013 78.0 95.5 80.9 96.2 87.7
5/13/2013 79.3 95.9 82.0 98.1 91.1
6/25/2013 80.8 85.8 83.2 88.4 88.1
7/19/2013 82.6 88.0 85.2 89.4 88.0
9/10/2013 84.8 87.2 86.2 87.2 87.3

As the season winds down, all of the projection models are settling on the high 80s as the Orioles’ final resting point.  This has been the average projection for the club since April 29th this year.

How does fWAR see things in general?

For the American League:

Team Wins fWAR Final Rank
Red Sox 87 51.7 98.1 East
Tigers 82 49.1 93.4 Central
Athletics 83 35.8 93.3 West
Rangers 81 39.1 91.8 WC1
Rays 78 40.7 89.6 WC2
Orioles 77 35.4 87.3
Indians 77 29.8 86.5
Royals 75 37 84.9
Yankees 76 27.8 84.8
Angels 67 31.4 76.8
Blue Jays 67 24 75.8
Mariners 65 18.9 72.7
Twins 62 20 70.7
White Sox 58 20 66.2
Astros 48 2.6 53.6

For the NL:

Team Wins fWAR Final Rank
Braves 86 39.5 96.8 East
Dodgers 84 39.3 94.8 West
Cardinals 83 32.9 93.0 Central
Pirates 82 34.2 92.1 WC1
Reds 82 37.2 91.4 WC2
Nationals 74 28.6 83.4
Dbacks 72 28.8 81.4
Rockies 66 32 74.7
Giants 65 28.7 73.9
Mets 64 27.3 73.7
Phillies 66 15.9 73.7
Padres 65 19.1 73.6
Brewers 62 20 70.7
Cubs 61 25.8 70.0
Marlins 53 11.5 60.5
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About the author


Jon Shepherd  

Orioles Analyst

Jon Shepherd founded the Baltimore Orioles blog Camden Depot in 2007. In addition to Baltimore Orioles analysis, the blog also focuses on qualitative and quantitative approaches to assessing baseball in general as well as providing mainstream reviews and commentary on substances alleged to performance enhancing. Dr. Shepherd’s writing has been featured on ESPN, and his blog has been part of the ESPN Sweetspot Network since May 2011. He has made radio and podcast appearances for Orioles’ centered programs.


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