Paper Orioles: Win Projections on 7/19/2013

Buck ShowalterAt the break, we have the Orioles on the fringe of being in the playoffs according to a few of the models.  It appears that the team is settling somewhere in the mid 80s for a projection.  However, now is also a time things get interesting as a few teams will marginally improve themselves by adding a key arm or bat.  Likewise, a team here or there will become worse.  These actions are not fully accounted for in these projections and, in all honesty, any addition or subtraction is unlikely to help much.  Teams, for the most part, win or lose based on their team as a whole.  It is rare for one individual to change a team’s fortune (e.g., Carlos Beltran, Randy Johnson) or for a group of players to do the same (e.g., Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Joe Saunders, Manny Machado).

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Anyway, here is where we are with the projections:

mJS PWE mBP Parcells fWAR
4/1/2013 72.6 81.0 74.9 81.0 81.0
4/8/2013 73.5 97.1 75.3 81.0 115.9
4/15/2013 73.9 88.0 76.1 81.0 94.5
4/22/2013 75.3 90.4 77.6 90.0 86.2
4/29/2013 77.1 98.0 79.4 97.2 90.3
5/6/2013 78.0 95.5 80.9 96.2 87.7
5/13/2013 79.3 95.9 82.0 98.1 91.1
6/25/2013 80.8 85.8 83.2 88.4 88.1
7/19/2013 82.6 88.0 85.2 89.4 88.0

As mentioned before, the team is hovering in its projection.  Here is how Baseball Prospectus has viewed their postseason chances.

Now, what does this tell me?  It tells me that the Orioles are within striking distance of the playoffs.  Furthermore, even though any added players are unlikely to help the team make the playoffs due to them being unlikely to significantly add a win or two to the total team total, we do not know if their presence in the playoffs is in doubt only by a win or two.  This is really one of those moments where it makes sense to mortgage elements of the future to better your team.  Perhaps, mortgage all of it is a foolhardy proposition, but the loss of a Jonathan Schoop or Nicky Delmonico is not the worst thing that could happen.  Combine that with the window shutting on Nick Markakis’ or J.J. Hardy’s time with the team and it makes sense to make a jump for that window.

And now the full fWAR standings for the AL:

Team Wins fWAR Final Rank
Red Sox 58 31.1 97.9 East
Tigers 52 34.2 96.7 Central
Rays 55 29.9 94.9 WC1
Athletics 56 22.9 91.8 West
Rangers 54 25.6 91.7 WC2
Orioles 53 22.7 88.0
Yankees 51 19.8 84.7
Indians 51 19.3 84.3
Angels 44 20.4 79.4
Royals 43 19.2 78.2
BlueJays 45 17 77.3
Mariners 43 14.4 72.8
ChiSox 37 15.7 69.5
Twins 39 12.4 69.0
Astros 33 0.2 53.1

And the NL:

Team Wins fWAR Final Rank
Cardinals 57 26.8 97.2 Central
Pirates 56 21 91.9 WC1
Braves 54 24.6 91.0 East
Reds 53 22.9 88.8 WC2
Dbacks 50 19.7 83.6 West
Dodgers 47 20 81.4
Rockies 46 22.8 81.1
Nationals 48 15.9 78.9
Phillies 48 15.4 78.0
Giants 43 20.7 78.0
Cubs 42 17.7 75.4
Mets 41 16.8 75.0
Padres 42 11.6 69.4
Brewers 38 11.8 66.5
Marlins 35 9.1 62.0
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About the author


Jon Shepherd  

Orioles Analyst

Jon Shepherd founded the Baltimore Orioles blog Camden Depot in 2007. In addition to Baltimore Orioles analysis, the blog also focuses on qualitative and quantitative approaches to assessing baseball in general as well as providing mainstream reviews and commentary on substances alleged to performance enhancing. Dr. Shepherd’s writing has been featured on ESPN, and his blog has been part of the ESPN Sweetspot Network since May 2011. He has made radio and podcast appearances for Orioles’ centered programs.


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