As we wake-up this morning April 26th, the Baltimore Orioles are leading the American League East. At 11-7, the O’s are 4 games over .500, and have won 4 of their first 6 series; including two series against Toronto.

While it is true that 89% of the O’s season remains, 11% of the 2012 season has already passed. These games do count, and there have been positives shown. There have also been negatives shown which have to be addressed.

In this post, we look at the reasons why the O’s might exceed the expectations they began 2012 with; and also why this quality start could come to an end.

Optimistic Thought 1: There have been positive signs from the rotation.

Despite that bad 5th in LA, Arrieta has looked good. Pitching pain-free, he has clearly had an up-tick in his already quality stuff. His fastball, and movement is better. His breaking ball is that much tighter. Even if you find those comments to be hyperbole, the bottom-line is that Arrieta is healthy, and looks like a capable starter.

Hammel has been a beast, just doing work with his 2 seam fast-ball. He has won 3 of his 4 outings, and has an era under 2. His FIP is 2.40. Opposing hitters have a .537 OPS against, and he has a G/F ratio of 1.62. He has 25 k’s in his 26 innings, and induced 42 grounders. His stuff jumps out at you. Utilizing the 2 seam FB is apparently new for him, so you wonder if he has a chance to really exceed his expectations. If he regresses back, he is still going to be a guy that provides the staff with 170+ innings, and that has plenty of value.

Chen has made 3 starts, and I’m growing very comfortable believing he can be a league average 3rd starter. All of his stuff shows good life. He has shown a repeatable delivery, with good off-speed offerings. When he is down, he looks really good. He has 15 k’s in his 17.1 ip, and despite allowing too many fly-balls; only 1 has yet to leave the park. The primary issue with him so far has been him wearing down after 85 pitches or so. That bears watching. If more balls start leaving the yard as the weather warms, maybe he is more of a 4/5 than a potential 3. Either way, he looks to be another guy capable of providing innings, and giving the O’s a chance most times out.

Hunter has been pretty much what you would expect him to be, a back of the rotation starter. There are thoughts that the back/hip soreness he has been dealing with, has impacted his ability to keep pitches low; and has caused him to leave too many pitches up (and thus the reason for the 7 homers allowed). Ultimately, that should average out. If you look at him as a 4/5, his overall numbers should end up comparable to most others around the league.

The results for Matusz have not been sufficient, but his stuff is better than it was last year. What has let him down to this point has been his control. He was drafted as a guy that was supposed to be capable of throwing 4 pitches for strikes at any point in the count. Right now, he is not showing he can throw a strike when needs it. Still, as long as he continues to show incremental improvement, I’m comfortable with him in the rotation (at-least for now). Right now, he is pretty much the 5th starter. I still feel that if he could get a couple of positive outings under his belt, his confidence would be improved, and you could see him take off.

If that does not happen, the reports on Britton are becoming encouraging, and there is reason to believe Britton will return to the bigs by the end of May / early June.

Reason for Concern 1: The rotation depth is thinning.

Wada is getting a 2nd opinion on his elbow, and Showalter has expressed hope that he can avoid surgery. If the initial report of a torn-ligament is correct, Wada will not be making his MLB debut this year. What Wada was going to provide the O’s was a question, but he at-least represented another internal option. At this point, it would be surprising to see him with the O’s at all in 2012.

Tillman had a very strong Spring Training, and again opened eyes with the organization. He worked hard in the Winter, and clearly took to the instruction of Peterson in the Spring. While there have been positive reports of Tillman’s velocity, the results have not been there in his first 4 AAA starts of 2012. With Tillman coming into this year with 54 starts at the AAA level, he needs to be dominating there, before again considering him as an option for the O’s starting 5. I’m beginning to wonder if his MLB future is in the bullpen.

Bergesen is a mess. Berken has been promoted, but has little business in a MLB rotation (I do think he can help a bullpen). S. Johnson is having some success, but like Berken, he would best help a MLB team out of the ‘pen. Outside of the hopeful return of Britton, the most likely option to be called-up would be Dana Eveland. Eveland might be a decent choice as a spot-starter, but I don’t want the O’s to have to be in position to rely on him every 5th day.

Optimistic Thought 2: The offense can improve.

Reynolds has a .509 OPS. His career OPS is .809.  Hardy has a .608 OPS. His career OPS is .752 (including .801 last year). Betemit has a .663 OPS. His career OPS is .781. Markakis has a .702 OPS. His career OPS is .816.

These four will improve and get closer to their career numbers.

Reason for Concern 2: Wieters and Jones will regress. The on-base %.

Wieters and Jones have started out of their minds. Even if they have improved, and will reach new highs in 2012; you have to expect they will not continue to produce at their current torrid levels.

Currently, the O’s are just 23rd in baseball in on-base %. This is mitigating the power we have seen (the O’s are 6th in slugging %).

Optimistic Thought 3: The bullpen has been outstanding. Strop / Johnson combo.

I believe that the bullpen can continue to perform, as long as the starters in-front of them continue to provide innings. If the bullpen is not overworked, they can slot in, and Showalter can continue to use them effectively.

If the O’s go to the 8th inning with a lead, Strop and Johnson are going to be tough for any team to deal with.

Reasons for Concern 3: The ‘pen will not remain ‘perfect.’

In 24 combined innings, Johnson, Ayala, and Lindstrom have yet to allow an er. O’Day has allowed 1 run in 8 ip. Strop has allowed 3 er, in 12 ip.  Patton has been effective in his 6 of his 8 outings.

This level of performance is unsustainable. If it ever gets to the point where the starters are not providing regular innings, the ‘pen will get overexposed, and they will fail.

Optimistic Thought 4: Reimold and Davis will contribute.

For both of these players, we set the over/under at a .750 OPS, with 20 homers. If they stay in the lineup for 500+ ab’s, Reimold should easily eclipse that level. Davis’ .305 on-base % is a concern, as is his 2 bb’s against 15 k’s; but he does have a .779 OPS so far. I think it would be unfair for anyone to label that unsustainable, considering he has a .751 career OPS in 1,062 ab’s. Last night Davis added his 2nd homer of the year, going opposite field to LF. What was interesting, is that he did not hit that ball square. He missed it, but still had the power to go out the other way. I don’t know how much Davis will give the O’s, but I do not think he will be a black-hole. He is going to provide something from 1st, and these two providing something to the lineup increases the depth of the lineup as a whole.

Reason for Concern 4: The Defense

It is not just the ridiculous amount of errors (21 in 18 games), it is the other plays that should have been made, but were not. Either the defense will improve, or the O’s will lose games because it does not. Right now, it has to be considered a concern.

Optimistic Thought 5: The O’s are 11-7.

One reason to believe the O’s might exceed their expectations for 2012, is the results we have already seen. The O’s have played series against the Twins, White Sox, Jays (twice), the Yankees, and Angels.

I think the O’s have more everyday talent than Minnesota, or Chicago. I think it is pretty much a toss-up with Toronto as to which lineup is better. The O’s got swept at home by New York (including two extra-inning games), and lost 2 of 3 in LA. The Yankees are deeper and better. LA is struggling a bit, but should end the year as a contender. To me the O’s have beat the teams they should be beating.

Going 6-4 on that 10 game, 3 city road-trip was an accomplishment. I had the O’s going 11-12 in April. It would be disappointing if the O’s now lose their last 5 games of the Month.

Reason for Concern 5: The immediate schedule.

In the first 15 days of May, the O’s have 4 games with NY, 3 with Boston, 4 with Texas, and 3 with Tampa Bay.  You have to play these teams at some point, and you have to play who is on your schedule; but that is an incredibly difficult 14 game stretch.

You have to look at those series, one series at a time; but it looks daunting.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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