The Baltimore Orioles are 67-56 and currently sit four and a half games behind the Boston Red Sox for the American League East division lead. They are also three games behind the Oakland Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays for a wild card spot. At this same exact moment last season the team was 66-55, six games behind the New York Yankees for the AL East division lead, and they had a half game lead over the Athletics in the wild card race. We are all well aware of how that one finished, with the Orioles going 27-14 from August 20th on to secure a playoff spot.
Does the team have that kind of run in this over the remaining 39 games of the season?
Who knows, but what we do know is it’s not going to be easy. Of the 12 series left on the schedule nine of them are against contending teams. The rest of the schedule plays out like this:
3 vs. TBR, 3 vs. OAK, 3 @ BOS, 3 @ NYY, 3 @ CLE, 4 vs. CHW, 4 vs. NYY, 3 @ TOR, 3 @ BOS, 4 @ TBR, 3 vs. TOR, 3 vs. BOS
As you can see, if they don’t win two out of the next three series then by the time they get to New York they could feasibly be well on the outside looking in when it comes to a playoff spot. This week is critical for the Orioles, just as the following one, the one following that, etc.
They may have been further behind in the AL East race at this point last year than they are right now but at this point last year they also were in the lead for a wild card spot, whereas they are currently trailing the two teams they are about to play in back-to-back series.
In order for a playoff spot to be guaranteed at this point than the Orioles must finish 29-10 the rest of the way, giving them 96 wins on the year. A run like that isn’t unprecedented but it is unlikely, especially considering the team has the third toughest schedule in baseball, with the New York Yankees having the second toughest. The A’s on the other hand have the second easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball, which makes beating them all the more important because there are no breaks the rest of the way.
What about offensively? Can the offense get hot to help carry the club through the rest of the season?
According to FanGraphs the Orioles have the fourth best offense overall, at 22.3 WAR, and their 165 home runs as a team are tops in all of baseball. There is another area the Orioles excel at also and that is the percentage of runs they drive in compared to opportunities. They are tops in the American League with a 15.2% rate of driving in runners.
They are first in the AL at driving runners in from first base at 6.6%, although one can imagine that is largely inflated due to the sheer number of home runs the team hits. They are second in the AL at driving in runners from second base, at 17%, but the one area they could use some improvement is the rate at which they are able to drive runners home from third base.
Even though they are sixth in the AL with a 36.9% mark they are actually last in their own division and it’s the one clear area they could improve in offensively, short of taking a few more walks of course. But then again, the Orioles aren’t exactly going to be accused of being a great situational hitting team. They hit home runs and that’s the formula that has worked for the second consecutive season.
What about the pitching staff? Having one of the best offenses in baseball is great and all but you also need a capable pitching staff, especially in the postseason.
Once again the Orioles pitching staff is in the bottom third of baseball, statistically speaking. FanGraphs has them 25th overall with 7.3 WAR accumulated through last night’s game. Breaking it down further you can tell that it’s largely the starting rotation that has held the pitching staff as a whole back, if you’re only looking at overall numbers. The rotation has pitched the ninth fewest innings in baseball, they’ve given up the second most HR/9 at 1.38, they’re BB/9 rate of 3.04 is the ninth highest, and they have an ERA/FIP line of 4.59/4.73.
Not exactly world beaters there but we knew that already. What about since the team acquired Bud Norris from the Houston Astros? Has he helped stabilize the rotation any?
If you’ve watched Norris pitch since he was picked up at the deadline then you know he has helped stabilize the rotation and the numbers for the month of August help back that up. The rotation has maintained a 4.05/4.16 ERA/FIP line, their K/9 numbers have improved, and they’re giving up fewer home runs.
These are the best numbers the rotation has put up in any month the entire season and while we can’t give all the credit to Norris because Miguel Gonzalez has been phenomenal this month as well, but it stands to reason that he’s helped a lot more than we may realize.
When it comes to the bullpen the players have been mostly consistent overall. Jim Johnson may not seem like he’s much of a shut-down closer the way he was last season but I’ll refer you to Rob Neyer’s piece on that, as I feel the same way.
Even though the Orioles have entered into the most brutal stretch of their schedule, a stretch that’s won’t really be ending until the end of the season, they still control their own destiny and the fact of the matter is that this could very well be the best thing for them. If they beat these other playoff contenders, especially those within their own division, then they make up the most ground that way.
It all starts tonight against David Price and the Rays and continues on with the A’s and then the Red Sox.
