The inevitable finally became official when arbitrator Frederic Horowitz ruled that Alex Rodriguez be suspended for 162 games. While Rodriguez did see a reduction in games suspended, this suspension will cost him all of 2014 and $26 million. The sideshow that became Alex Rodriguez will take, more or less, a one season respite in New York. There is a chance that 2013 was the last time Rodriguez will ever step foot on a Major League field.

The fallout of this decision touches almost every area surrounding it. Rodriguez never failed a test, which means that Major League Baseball has now set a precedent that it can suspend players for 162 games without a failed test. The Players Union, for the first time in its existence, has signed off on something that could force big givebacks in the next contract negotiation. There’s the morality end of the argument, the baseball fan’s perspective, and all of the legalese that follows such a grand spectacle.

None of that really matters other than the few days of headlines, grandstanding, a pure venom that gets passed off as objective journalism. After the smoke clears, all that matters is how this impacts the 2014 New York Yankees and the rest of the American League East division.

{Discuss the impact of the decision on the AL East Race on the BSL Boards}

Simply put, the Yankees are a worse team now than they were 24 hours ago. Rodriguez, despite all of his injury problems and histrionics, was still a top 10 offensive third baseman. He hasn’t been the prodigious home run hitter since 2007 and he hasn’t cracked 30 home runs since 2010. That 30 mark has more to do with time spent on the disabled list more than any loss of power. Rodriguez’s personality won’t be missed, but the Yankees will certainly miss his production.

Aside for the loss of production, it significantly weakens the Yankees’ depth. Now, unless there is another  unexpected, bold move, Kelly Johnson would be slotted in as the starter at third base while Brian Roberts will start at second in place of the departed Robinson Cano. Roberts’ injury history is the reason why he isn’t in Baltimore anymore, so he is  inherently risky for a club that has shelled out over $300 million for Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran. All three have some injury risk attached to them as well. Derek Jeter’s injury problems are well documented and leave him a questionable everyday shortstop. Mark Teixeira is coming off of a complicated wrist surgery. With their entire core an injury risk, the Yankees needed to build great depth. General Manager Brian Cashman seemed to be on his way by adding Roberts, Johnson, and re-signing Brendan Ryan to go along with bench player Eduardo Nunez.  When the depth becomes more or less the starting team, there is a problem.

The free agent market has names like Michael Young and Mark Reynolds, both uninspiring for a number of reasons. Neither make up for the loss of Rodriguez’s production and both have flaws that would weaken the Yankees. Cashman did add veteran utility man Scott Sizemore on a minor league deal, but he, obviously, isn’t an impact player. Aside from overpaying for a Chase Headley or making a reactionary trade for Brandon Phillips, the Yankees will have to pluck someone like Reynolds or Young off the market.

It’s not as if this savings will give them a better chance to sign Japanese starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. If the Yankees were serious about pursuing Tanaka, they were going to sign him regardless of Rodriguez’s salary and the luxury tax implications. And, it’s not like they are going to give Tanaka an overbid because of the reduction of Rodriguez’s salary.

Right now, everyone in the division should be celebrating. The Orioles, at this moment, project to be a much better team than the Yankees and, as everyone knows, the Orioles haven’t spent much at all this winter. Even the Blue Jays have to feel better about themselves. That’s right now. The true fallout is that the Yankees now have about $23 to $26  million to spend that they didn’t have just a couple of days ago. How they spend it will determine the fate of the American League East.

The only positive, at least financially for the Yankees, is that they can enter the other free agent starting pitcher market and use some of that money to sign an Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, or Matt Garza. Compensation picks mean nothing to New York this winter so an additional pick given up for a starting pitcher who comes with that price wouldn’t be an issue. They were already in the market for a reliever like Grant Balfour, so this “extra” money isn’t too relevant there.

That’s actually the one area that could hurt teams in the division. If all goes according the Yankees’ plan, these become a reality: The Yankees are most definitely weakened at third base and second base. But, they are immensely improved at catcher and will get good production from their outfield. If Jeter can stay healthy, their production from shortstop dramatically improves. A healthy Teixeira caps off what could be a well rounded, powerful offense. With no impact bat available to add, the Yankees can turn the money into another starting pitcher, which could yield a rotation of CC Sabathia, Tanaka, Hiroki Kuroda, Jimenez (or Santana or Garza) and Ivan Nova. That rotation could compete with any in the division. Coupled with the a potent offense, the team does better than the 85 wins of last season.

But, the impact of the Rodriguez suspension makes it imperative that everything goes according to plan in New York. Reality is that older players get hurt now. The Yankees are betting against that. If they are wrong, their lack of depth will be exposed.

Right now, the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox are the clear cut, class of the division. The Yankees were looking like they were going to be close. Now, they have to land Tanaka. They have to find some production from third base. And, they should land another starting pitcher (not to mention a reliever or two). But, with the Dodgers heavy in play for Tanaka, there is no given he comes to New York.

For the Orioles and to some extent the Blue Jays, this makes an unsettling winter even more unsettling. On one hand, the Orioles and Blue Jays have to feel better about their positions, relative to the Yankees. But, if the Yankees decide–as they always do–to reinvest that savings into the 2014 team, the gap between the Yankees and both the Orioles and Blue Jays could grow wider. The reason is simple. With no real options on offense, the Yankees can address every pitching hole for 2014, which could make a big difference. Had Rodriguez’s salary stayed on the books, they wouldn’t have done so.

Right now, a team like the Orioles is left wondering what the Yankees will do with their new found money. The Yankees organization has talked a great deal about financial restraint and all, but they have conducted business in a far different matter. If that trend continues, they likely fill all of their pitching holes and separate from Baltimore and Toronto.

The Yankees were a better team with Alex Rodriguez at third base. At the moment, they are an older team full of holes that won’t compete with anyone in the division. But, if they decide to sign Tanaka and then use Rodriguez’s savings towards the rotation, bullpen, and replacement level third baseman, the team becomes one of the favorites to win the division. Rodriguez’s legal decision held them up all winter. Now, it appears that the Yankees will hold up the rest of the division until they decide how to deploy their money. It, once again, comes down to Yankees’ money.

Gary Armida
Gary Armida

Orioles Analyst

First and foremost, a Father. After that, I am a writer and teacher who not only started my own company and published an i-magazine as well as a newsletter, but have been published by USA Today, Operation Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Digest, Gotham Baseball Magazine, and numerous other publications. As an educator, I have 20 years of classroom experience and am utilizing that experience in my current position as department coordinator. Wrote the book The Teacher And The Admin (https://theteacherandtheadmin.com/the-book/) and operate that website which is dedicated to making education better for kids.

X