Justin Forsett was the biggest surprise of the Ravens offense this season. He was signed as the third running back on the depth chart but had won the starting job by week three and kept it for the rest of the season. Forsett amassed career high numbers in carries (235), yards (1266) and touchdowns (eight). His 5.4 yards per carry average was the second highest in his career, behind his 5.9 yards per carry with the Texans in 2012 on only 63 rushes.
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Forsett was the most natural zone runner in Gary Kubiak’s zone-blocking scheme and provided a consistent rushing threat as well as providing a spark out of the backfield as a receiver too. Clearly then, Forsett was a key component to the Ravens successes this season. But Forsett was only signed to a one-year contract last April, leaving him as an unrestricted free agent this offseason. The question now becomes, should the Ravens re-sign him and if so, at what price?
The argument for re-signing him is obvious and largely stated above. He was the heart of the offense, keeping things moving on first and second down, making it easier for Joe Flacco on third. His natural zone-running instincts make him a threat that the defense has to account for.
Here’s a perfect example of Forsett running a typical stretch play in the zone scheme.
He begins his run to the outside, but makes quick reads. A lot of backs might have kept this run going outside, but Forsett sees the Saints defender on the second level over-pursuing to the outside.
So Forsett makes a quick decision to work back inside and immediately finds a hole.
Forsett shows how shifty he can be, eluding Saints defenders to squeeze through a small hole to make it to the second level.
From there, Forsett has a simple walk into the end zone for a touchdown.
Obviously, Baltimore would like to retain Forsett. But coming off a career year, Forsett may be looking for a sizeable contract offer to come back. Baltimore’s loss of Kubiak might also hurt their chances of holding on to Forsett. Kubiak brought Forsett to Houston, and then to Baltimore this past season. It’s not too much of a stretch to believe that Kubiak might want to take him to Denver next season too.
On top of this, Forsett is 29 and will be 30 by the middle of next season. Granted, Forsett doesn’t have too much tread on the tyres (only 582 career rushes), but he’s a small back at just 5-foot-8, 197 pounds. This was the first season in his career that he was the workhorse back, so it’s difficult to say he’s durable enough to hold up through multiple seasons with 20 carries a game, which is what you’d want from a running back you’re giving a significant contract to.
Cheaper alternatives will most certainly be out there. Kubiak and his old boss Mike Shanahan were experts at finding running backs late in the draft that fit the zone scheme perfectly and were just as productive as Forsett was this season. Shanahan most recently had success with Roy Helu (fourth round, and also an unrestricted free agent) and Alfred Morris (sixth round). Going back to Kubiak’s time as an offensive coordinator in Denver under Shanahan, the Broncos found a multiple productive running backs in the later rounds; Terrell Davis (sixth round), Olandis Gray (fourth round), Mike Anderson (sixth round) all had 1000+ yard seasons early in their careers in the zone scheme.
For the long-term future of the Ravens, they might be better off letting Forsett walk and finding a younger, cheaper back in the later rounds of the draft. They have the offensive line in place that will create lanes for any zone back that knows how to make the correct reads. But with that said, Forsett did get the most out of the lanes provided by the Ravens offensive line and as previously mentioned, was a key part of the success Baltimore had this season.
Would you re-sign Forsett? How much would you be willing to pay him? Join in on the discussion on the BSL forums here.
Mark is an NFL follower from across the pond. He began analyzing Redskins football for SBNation’s HogsHaven.com, before moving on to The Washington Post. He also helps with NFL Draft coverage on FanSpeak.com. Mark was born and still lives in England, often battling the time difference to watch every minute of football he can.