This from BA…”…but he is similar to Tulowitzki in his defensive skills and playmaking ability. He has excellent range, outstanding hands and the smooth and fluid actions of a possible Gold Glove defender. Green has a fine arm, though not quite the cannon Tulowitzki possesses. He’s faster than either Longoria or Tulowitzki, frequently clocking in the 6.6-second range over 60 yards. While he doesn’t profile as an offensive powerhouse, he should become a long-term middle-infield fixture, a solid .280-plus big league hitter who may produce 15-20 home runs annually.”

I remain convinced that Green has to be the pick if he is available at 5.

I will certainly will defer to those that dedicate their time to scouting prospects… people such as Greg Pappas with http://www.mlb-draft.com/ , or the very solid talent evaluators at http://camdendepot.com/ , and of course Mr. Joe Jordan and the O’s Scouting Department… but I think the O’s selecting Green is an easy decision for the O’s… if they rank Green within their top 10.

I understand that in baseball you can not draft for need, when the players you are drafting are several years away from even potentially helping the Major League team…. But the flip-side of that is I do not think you can completely ignore organizational need either.

So the way I would handle those conflicting view-points is that I would tend to stay with my board… but if had players ranked basically equal, I take the position of significantly higher need.

I understand there are questions about Green’s ability to stay at SS, and that some are disappointed in his offensive production here in his Junior year.

I think there are enough positive reviews about his defense and that he produced enough with a wooden bat in the Cape Cod league last year to justify taking him with the 5th pick.

I also think that Greg Pappas’ research on Top 10 draft-picks during the 10 year draft-period of 1993 through 2003, that he provided prior to last year’s draft was extremely relevant:

While subjective, he determined that of those picks:
A) High School Hitters > 72% good picks
B) College Hitters > 57% good picks
C) High School Pitchers > 31% good picks
D) College Pitchers > 28% good picks

The Orioles are continuing to rebuild… and will always lack the resources of NY and Boston. The Orioles are not the little sisters of the poor when it comes to resources… but when you are working at a disadvantage with your direct competition, and you are already starting from behind… I think the investment of 1st round dollars has to be with the player more likely to help you.

Maybe the O’s have Scheppers, Crow, Turner, White, Matzek, and Purke ranked slightly higher on their board… maybe they grade several of them out with a slightly-higher ceiling vs Green’s… but I take the position player.

You take Green now… you get him signed early… he gets some at-bats with Aberdeen… heads to the AFL… starts 2010 at Bowie… he can be the starting SS by June 2011, and perhaps by Opening Day.

To be fair, I saw a I recently saw an argument on Baseball Analysts arguing the opposite point of Greg’s:

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives…lb_draft_c.php

I disagree with the conclusions from Baseball Analysts (Marc Hulet) with this, and believe Greg’s general point is correct. You evaluate each player based on their individual skill-set, but it stands to reason that positional players are simply more projectable vs arms.

If you start with that basic premise… bats being more projectable… then it makes sense that a team with less resources than their direct competition, would take the position player.

Idea being, the O’s can afford less flame-outs vs NY and Boston… and the pitchers likely ranked comparable with Green, are more likely to flame-out.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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