Last season was the weakest for the AFC in a long while, one where the cream easily rose to the top. Instead of jumping off the pile of mediocre teams struggling for a playoff spot, the Ravens were sucked back into them by an atrocious pass offense and a few poorly-timed defensive breakdowns.

So, one draft and free agency class later, where do they stand in the grander empirical picture? Let’s take a look at what we know so far.

Football Outsiders released its projections for next season in their book, Football Outsiders Almanac 2018. The Ravens are not considered a team that will be among the worst in the NFL, but their mean projection of 8.4 wins might surprise some optimists. Regardless, the projections for the conference as a whole have remained about the same. The Steelers and Patriots are projected to win 10+ games, no AFC team is projected to win 9 games, and the Ravens are part of the 8-win pack along with the Texans, Chargers, Colts, and Titans.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

A quick gander around the rest of the publications that have published predictions for the Ravens pretty much confirms the consensus. Athlon Sports predicted a second-place finish in the AFC North. ESPN’s Jamison Henley went game-by-game and wound up with a 9-7 record. Most Vegas places have Baltimore at around 4:1 or 9:2 to win the AFC North, the over/under I’ve seen on a win total fluctuates between 7.5 and 9.

So now that we’ve established the common viewpoint, let’s talk about the biggest reasons that could change.

 

 

Lamar Jackson is Deshaun Watson Good and Plays Early —
Perhaps you are looking at what Jackson has done in the preseason and deem this unlikely. In that case, let me tell you that Watson’s preseason play was largely uneven in 2017. Watson barely completed 50 percent of his preseason passes and threw zero touchdowns. These games are designed to feel out the new players, not to maximize their skills.

The easiest way for the Ravens to wildly overachieve the consensus standings in my view will be Jackson overachieving his draft status and immediately replacing Joe Flacco in the first month of the season. This won’t be hard to understand on an empirical basis. Baltimore’s passing has been weak since Gary Kubiak left and by improving on their biggest weakness, the Ravens will become a team with no gaping holes.

 

The Pass Rush Dries Up —
Here’s my biggest concern about Baltimore: Terrell Suggs is entering his age 36 season. While Suggs is a probable Hall of Famer, and edge rushers tend to get some benefit of the doubt on aging, 36 is not 31. The longer an NFL career goes, the higher the chance of age-based regression. And when that regression strikes, it tends to not be gradual, but sudden. Baltimore had one other player with more than 3.5 sacks last year: Matt Judon.

 

So considering that the entire foundation of Baltimore’s pass rush is based on a 36-year-old and a player with a wildly high sack total based on his hurry total, that’s an area where if both players suddenly struggle, the Ravens might not be able to generate the pressure to have a stellar pass defense.

Marlon Humphrey Is The Truth —
First-rounder Marlon Humphrey came in and struggled immediately as an NFL starter, but by the end of the season, he started understanding how to play defensive back at the NFL level. Humphrey was targeted more than any player in the Ravens secondary, but, per Football Outsiders Almanac 2018, finished the season with a 63 percent success rate that was third among all qualifying cornerbacks.

 

If Humphrey is an immediate star cornerback in 2018, that flips the script because it enables the Ravens to be a little bit more aggressive with their coverage, knowing that they’ve likely got one side locked down. Star cornerback play is pretty rare in today’s NFL, and the teams that can rely on it are able to play a different kind of ballgame, as we saw with the Darrelle Revis Jets and, more recently, the Patrick Peterson Cardinals.

 

Alex Collins Not Falling Into Regression —
We already did a whole piece on this. But yes, Collins’ avoidance of regression is a huge factor in how good the Ravens will be in 2018. If he doesn’t perform at the same level, all of the sudden Baltimore will be relying on a passing game that didn’t function at a high level in 2017 even more.

 

A lot of an NFL season is on the shoulders of a surprisingly low number of players. Not only does surprise achievement boost a team statistically, it also boosts a team because it changes the coaching dynamic. A Lamar Jackson that can throw deep and beat you with his legs is a much different scheme to plan against than Flacco on third-and-long. A Ravens defense that can’t rush the passer organically will be more easily picked apart late in the down. And so on.

The Ravens are slated to be a decent team. But they don’t have to be. It all depends on which way a few coin flips turn up.

Rivers McCown
Rivers McCown

Ravens Analyst

Rivers McCown is a writer and editor who has written for ESPN.com, Bleacher Report, USA Today, and Deadspin, among other places. He’s edited for Football Outsiders, Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue.

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