The Big Ten has been one of the best college basketball conferences on a consistent basis and last year was no different. The Big Ten tied 3 other conferences with the most bids in the NCAA tournament, with 7. However, the conference did struggle in the tournament. The conference only went 8-7 in the tournament (to put that in perspective, the ACC, which also sent 7 teams, had 19 WINS…4 more wins than games played by the B10). To make matters worse, Michigan St lost in the first round as a 2 seed to Middle Tennessee St. Many thought MSU should have been a 1 seed and they went out and laid an egg to a team they should have easily beaten. Michigan State is traditionally a very good tournament team and they went into the tourney as one of the favorites to win it all. All in all, the Big Ten lost 3 of their 7 teams in the first round and saw only 3 teams advance to the Sweet 16. None of their teams went any further than that.
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This year figures to be no different in terms of the conference sending a lot of teams to the tournament. The conference should have no problem sending 7 or more teams again. This year, there isn’t one dominant team out there. The favorite to win the conference is Wisconsin. Last year was a very up and down year for the Badgers. Their former head coach, Bo Ryan, who saw a lot of success while in Madison, retired 12 games into the season. They elevated his long time assistant, Greg Gard , to head coach and after that, the team really played well. Under Ryan, they started the season off with a home loss to Western Illinois. All in all, they lost 5 of the first 12 games they played last year. From that point on, they went 15-8 and advanced to the Sweet 16 for the 3rd straight year. They finished 39th in the Kenpom Rankings. As usual, the defensive efficiency numbers were high, as they placed 13th. However, the offense was an issue last year. Their offensive efficiency number was 90th. They were 1st in 2015 and 4th in 2014. This year, they return their top 9 players in terms of minutes played from last year’s team. The team is lead by Nigel Hayes, who many believe will be the Conference POY. Last year, he averaged about 16 ppg and almost 6 boards. Guard Bronson Koenig is a very good shooter and drained almost 40% from 3. He turned it over around 1..5 times per games, so he is also careful with the ball. Ethan Happ also returns. He is their biggest player. He averaged almost 8 rebounds and 12.5 ppg and shot well over 50% from the field. Kenpom rates Wisconsin 8th in their preseason rankings and they are the only Big Ten team in the top 10.
However, this isn’t a conference that is Wisconsin’s to lose by any stretch. While Wisconsin is the only top 10 team in the Kenpom rankings, they also have 4 others in the top 16. Michigan State is a team that is always right near the top but this year may be different. They lost their best player from last year’s team, Denzel Valentine. He was a triple double candidate every night and that is a big loss for any team to have to overcome. They also lost Bryn Forbes, who is now with the Spurs. Eron Harris, who is a transfer from West Virginia, leads them. Harris has a lot of upside as a scorer for them. He is a guard that averaged over 17 ppg for West Virginia in the 2013-2014 season. He came to MSU last year and averaged 9 PPG. He shot 44% from 3. He played 10 less minutes ppg with MSU last year vs. what he did with WVU. That number figures to increase and so will his production. They also brought in a stellar recruiting class. They landed a top 5 recruiting class, led by SF Miles Bridges and SG Joshua Langford. Those 2 figure to lead this class, along with Harris, and eventually become a dangerous team. This will be a team that you will want to get early because as their young guys gain experience and confidence, they figure to get better and better. Michigan State starts 14th in the Kenpom rankings.
Another team to watch out for is Purdue. Purdue brings back 6 players that averaged 14 mpg or more. They are led by Caleb Swanigan, who was one of the top recruits in last year’s freshman class. They also return Vince Edwards, who was second on the team in scoring. With AJ Hammonds gone, 7’2” Isaac Hayes figures to see his minutes and production take a leap. In 14 mpg last year, he averaged about 10 points and 4 boards, while shooting 60% from the field. They also added a 4 star PG recruit in Carsen Edwards. This team has a lot of upper classmen leadership to go along with some very good talent. They could challenge Wisconsin for the best team in the conference.
Indiana also figures to be battling for the top spot. While they lost Yogi Farrell, they kept Thomas Bryant, a player some felt was a first round pick. James Blackmon, the team’s second leader scorer last year, also returns. He shot 46% from 3 last year, 85% from the FT line and 48% from the field. He was limited to just 13 games last year, so staying healthy will be important for him and the team but if he is able to stay on the court, he has a shot at being a first team all Big Ten performer. OG Anunby didn’t do much in his freshman year. He averaged less than 14 minutes a game and averaged just less than 5 ppg. However, he shot close to 60% from the field and almost 45% from 3. He is also currently listed as a top 20 pick by NBA draft express. NBAdraft.net has him as the first pick in the second round. Obviously the talent is there. Add to that a decent recruiting class that has 2 4 star prospects and Indiana, a team that went to the Sweet 16 last year, should be a top 15 team all year long and also challenge Wisconsin for the top of the league. I don’t think they will win the conference but come tournament time, they may have the highest upside of any team in the conference.
The team many aren’t talking about is Ohio State. The Buckeyes return their top 6 scorers and top rebounders from last year’s team. Of those returning, 4 are juniors and one is a senior. 4 players from last year averaged over 11 ppg and they were led by senior forward Marc Loving, who averaged 14 ppg. Last year’s team wasn’t a very good shooting team. They shot less than 70% from the FT line, 33% from 3 and 44% from the field. They only ranked 138th in offensive efficiency and finished the year 76th in Kenpom, with a 21-14 record. That is unusual for a Thad Matta coached team. I would expect them to be a better team this year. They are experienced and have added 2 4 star recruits, including bringing another Funderburke to Columbus.
Finally, we have the local favorite, the Maryland Terrapins. I won’t go into too much detail here, as my peers at Baltimore Sports and Life have done an excellent job already. I will say that I feel that the Terps are the sleeper team in the conference this year. This is a team that many have pegged to finish outside of the top 5 in the conference. Many feel they will battle with Michigan to be that “next team”, after the group I have mentioned above. For me, MD has arguably the best player in the league in Melo Trimble. They have some exciting freshman to go along with some of their freshman class from a year ago. They need their young players to “get old” quickly but if they do, this could be a fast paced exciting team that offers a lot of upside. They lost a lot off of last year’s team but perhaps Trimble, after having a subpar season last year, can get re-focused knowing that he will be “the man” and carry this group to an NCAA tourney where they could win a few games. Like Michigan St, this is a team you want to get early because they could be very dangerous by the end of the year.
All in all, I think the Big Ten is a strong conference this year. There are 5 teams in the top 16 in the preseason Kenpom rankings and 7 in the top 50. It is weak at the bottom (like most leagues) but there are 9 or so dangerous teams in this league that could beat you on any night. Don’t sleep on Iowa or Northwestern either. They could sneak in to the bubble picture. As is, I think this is a 7-bid league again this year. I expect Wisconsin and Indiana to separate themselves slightly as the 2 teams that could really go deep into the tournament but this league will probably have 3-5 realistic Sweet 16 contenders and at least one Final Four contender.
Predicted order of finish:
1) Wisconsin
2) Indiana
3) Purdue
4) Michigan St
5) Ohio St
6) MD
7) Michigan
8) Northwestern
9) Iowa
10) Illinois
11) Minnesota
12) Penn St
13) Nebraska
14) Rutgers
All Big Ten First Team:
Nigel Hayes- Wisconsin (Conference POY)
Melo Trimble- Maryland
Caleb Swanigan- Purdue
Thomas Bryant- Indiana
Eron Harris- Michigan St
Freshman of the Year:
Miles Bridges – Michigan St
Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight