Houston’s 5-3 Sunday victory capped a poor week for the Orioles, as Baltimore dropped both games vs. Boston, and 3 of 4 to the Astros. The O’s will enter Monday at 67-56 overall, in 3rd place in the American League East, 2GB of Division Leading Toronto, and in possession of the 2nd Wild Card, 1 game ahead of Seattle. 

There are 39 games (24%) left in the regular season, with an incredibly important week coming up. Every game matters, but one reason this coming week is so vital, is that it’s the last week before rosters can expand in September.

The thinking (the hope?) being that with the expanded rosters, the O’s can bring up enough additional bullpen arms that their rotation issues can be somewhat mitigated. To get the chance to test that hypothesis, you can’t have another similar week. Not with 5 teams within 4 games of the O’s current WC position.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

There are ebbs and flows, highs and lows in any season; but losing 5 of 6 at home against other playoff contenders at this point in the year is disappointing. It also wasn’t a number of well-played heart breakers; but a series of beatings.

With the entire game of baseball being based on failure, it’s easy to understand that it’s in the nature of MLB players to quickly move on.

That’s what the O’s have to do here. There is no time to wallow.

To remain in playoff position, the play has to improve. Now.

This week the O’s have 4 games vs. the Nationals (2 here in Baltimore, 2 in DC), and a 3 game series in New York vs. the Yankees.

8/22 vs. Washington: Strasburg vs. Bundy
8/23 vs. Washington: Lopez  vs. Gausman
8/24 @ Washington: Miley vs. Roark
8/25 @ Washington: Tillman vs. Scherzer
8/26 @ New York: Gallardo vs. Cessa
8/27 @ New York: Bundy vs. Green
8/28 @ New York: Gausman vs. Pineda

Absolute minimum goal is a split vs. DC, and a series win in NY.

And of course it starts with the starting pitching.

Bundy’s velocity was down a bit in his last outing Wednesday vs. Boston. Nothing looked particularly sharp Just a bad outing, or a precursor of him beginning to tire out? After that start vs. the Red Sox, Dylan was quoted as saying he feels strong. In that same link, O’s Manager Buck Showalter indicates Dylan can remain in the rotation for the rest of the year.

Okay, well if Bundy feels good, and there isn’t concern about him finishing the season; then the immediate focus goes back to performance. It’s not particularly ‘fair’ to ask the guy with seven ML starts to help lead the way, but that is the position the O’s are in. If the O’s are going to reach the post-season, Bundy is going to have to be part of the reason why. This week, he’s got two opportunities.

It’s 100% completely fair to ask Gausman to step-up. He’s pitched better than his 4-10 record indicates, but not good enough. I spent most of the Spring, and large swaths of this year calling him the x-factor. Saying repeatedly he needed to perform to his talent level for this team to succeed. For Baltimore to be in the position they are here on August 21st, without Gausman being better than he has been – is the biggest surprise to me about this season. Like Bundy, he has two starts this week, and roughly seven left in the season. I’ll triple-down on what I’ve said all year. He’s the wild card in the O’s push to the playoffs. Thursday was a good example of the frustration many O’s have had with Gausman this year. His stuff looked great over his 6.2 innings (1 bb, 8 k’s), but he still let up a couple of bombs. The frustration being when he has multiple pitches working like he did that night, you just want to see him totally control the opposition. The ability is there. It’s time to get to that next level. He will or he won’t, and either way it’s going to be a large part of the remaining story of this year.

In his own words, Miley stunk in his Friday start vs. the Astros. Through 4 starts with the Birds, he’s had one good start, one livable start, and two flame outs. His track record says he should be a capable 5th starter. The rest of the way, he has to show that. He doesn’t have to be ‘good’, but he does have to give the O’s a chance.

Basically the same is true for Gallardo. He’s not going to look pretty doing anything at this point in his career. He doesn’t have the arm talent to impress. He is surviving on experience. I’m relatively pleased with his last four starts, including today. If you look at him as a 4th or 5th starter, I don’t see how you can reasonably expect more from him. If he continues to give the O’s what he has over August, that’s fine by me.

The biggest concern I have coming out of this week is Tillman. His start last night had been delayed due to shoulder soreness. Then we see him struggle with his fastball velocity and command last night? There definitely has to be some concern, but at-least Tillman said he felt better at the end of his start last night.

Am I alone in thinking Tillman has never been particularly well liked by O’s fans? If my conjecture is correct, perhaps it’s due to him being more of a mid-rotation starter, vs. a true ace. Whatever you want to call him though, he’s been the most consistent O’s starter over this 5 year period of success since he rejoined the O’s in mid-2012. He’s easily been the Most Invaluable Oriole here in 2016. If Gausman’s the wild card, Tillman’s the glue. 15-5, with nine starts left on the year. Will he push towards 20 wins, and help get the O’s to the post-season for the 3rd time in 5 years? Or will the shoulder remain an issue that completely daggers the O’s chances?

Other Thoughts:

1) Can’t say we’re surprised that Davis got hot again. Recent stretch good to see, but it has to be sustained during the remainder of this year.

2) Machado is one of the true premier players in the game, but since the All-Star break his numbers have been just ‘good’, vs. superb. It’s ridiculous to ask the guy with the .915 OPS, .380 wOBA, 5.6 fWAR to be ‘better’, but a final MVP push would obviously help.

3) O’Day still has shoulder pain. He’s not throwing, and there is no timetable for his return. Until / if O’Day gets back, there is increased pressure on the 6th and 7th inning guys to turn the ball over to Brach and Britton.

Mychal Givens has appeared in 48 games this year, pitching 57 innings. He’s 8-1, with a 3.00 era. He’s allowed 45 hits, 5 hr’s, 29 bb’s, and 71 k’s. It’s been a quality year overall, and he’s overwhelmed RHH. Unfortunately he has struggled all season vs. lefties.

I like what we’ve seen from Donnie Hart as the new LOOGY, but feel with O’Day out, that there remains increased pressure for Givens to show he can be effective against both sides of the plate. Think you have to give him the ball, and sink or swim on the results.

4) Left for dead by some O’s fans after playing with a torn labrum last year, and not being able to hit anything with authority; JJ Hardy is putting up a ’16 which looks an awful lot like what Hardy has been the rest of his career. Excellent defense and a slash line of .275 / .312 / .421.  As compared to his career totals of .258 / .308 / .413.

5) The O’s apparently are not planning on offering the Qualifier to Wieters. Should they?

6) Some discussion on the questions which have arisen over the O’s attendance totals can be found here.

7) Re: Britton’s 2016. When we are saying his ’16 is historically good, are we really just pointing to his ERA and scoreless streak? I mean the BABIP against Britton is much lower than last year, his LOB%, and HR/FB ratios are better…  but he’s not that much different from last year. Same K%. Actually higher BB%.  His xFIP was better last year.  LD & GB %s very similar. He’s basically been at this same level since the start of ’15. Two years of dominance.

Discussion of Britton as a potential Cy Young (and MVP) candidate can be found here.

8) Who is your Most Valuable Oriole?

9) The O’s are 3rd in Slugging %, 17th in On-Base %, 9th overall in Runs. They are 26th in Starting ERA, 5th in Reliever ERA. The Bullpen is 1st overall in Wins Probability Added. The defense is 4th overall in Defensive Efficiency.

10) If you want to criticize O’s Executive Vice President Dan Duquette, I don’t think the critique should be over not doing more at the non-waiver trade deadline. Basically there wasn’t much available, and the O’s had little to trade. The more valid criticism in-my-opinion is that the Minor League system is poor, and a large part of why is that the O’s continue to not do enough internationally.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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