1. Houston Astros – Jonathan Gray, RHP
After picking Carlos Correa with the number one pick in last year’s draft, Astros General Manager Jeff Luhnow has developed a reputation as someone who is unpredictable in the draft. This year, many project him to take North Carolina’s Colin Moran or San Diego’s Kris Bryant as a move to save some slot money with the first pick and use that savings later in the draft.
Luhnow employed that strategy last season, but with the farm system more properly stocked and the later draft not quite as deep as last season, he will make a move for a high end pitching talent in either Mark Appel or Jonathan Gray. In a close call, the Astros will draft Jonathan Gray, who throws in the upper 90’s and has an arsenal that projects as a future ace.
The Astros are in desperate need of high end pitching and Gray has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the draft. Appel is more polished, but Gray’s fastball is elite and his slider is already equal to Appel’s. Gray will work on refining his changeup as the Astros groom him as their future ace.
– Gary Armida, Full Count Pitch
2. Chicago Cubs – Mark Appel, RHP
The soon-to-be 22-year old Appel is a great fit for a team desperate for top of the rotation starters. Money will not be an issue, as Appel is a senior, has little leverage, and will give the Cubs a much-needed boost to a weak farm system. Appel is nearly major-league ready, featuring a solid mid-nineties fastball, a hard tilt slider and potential plus change. The Scott Boras client has improved his mechanics noticeably since last year and should move very quickly through the Cubs system.
3. Colorado Rockies – Kris Bryant, OF/3B
The best power bat in the draft, Bryant should pay healthy dividends for the Rockies offense for the next 6 plus years, and provide an easy transition at 1st base as Todd Helton’s career nears its end.
4. Minnesota Twins – Kohl Stewart, RHP
Desperately in need of pitching help across the organization, the Twins are delighted to select 6’3”, 190 lb. RHP Kohl Stewart from St. Piux X high school (Houston, TX).
Stewart, the consensus best high school pitcher in the draft, has committed to Texas A&M as a multi-sport athlete. Stewart’s fastball can reach the upper-90s, and he’ll routinely sit in the mid-90s with a plus slider, solid curveball, and a show-me changeup.
5. Cleveland Indians – Braden Shipley, RHP
Our organization was truly hoping that Kohl Stewart would fall to us with the 5th selection, but once Minnesota snatched him up we decided to go with the next player on our board in Shipley. We feel love the life and velocity on the fastball, and his changeup may be the best in the entire draft. The mix reminds us a bit of Kevin Gausman in last year’s draft, and we think that he has a chance for an above average curveball as he uses it more often in pro ball. Also, we have concerns with the top hitters left on the board and with the new CBA in place we feel the most confident in the risk/reward that Shipley offers the Indians’ organization.
– Andrew Ball, Beyond the Box Score
6. Miami Marlins – Colin Moran, 3B
The Marlins frankly need all the help they can get right now. I figured it made sense to target Shipley or Moran with this pick and with Shipley off the board I decided to go with the highly polished Moran who will be able to help very soon at either third or first base for the Marlins. I try not to draft for need but if you take a look at who the Marlins are currentyltrotting out there at the corner spots, as well as a lack of quality corner infield prospects in the minors, Moran makes perfect sense here even though I was very tempted to go with a higher ceiling bat or arm such as trey ball or clint frazier.
– Chris Slade
7. Boston Red Sox – Clint Frazier, OF
For the first time since 1993, the Red Sox have a top-10 pick in the Rule 4 draft, and they’re going to look to take an impact player here. It seems to be between a pair of high school outfielders, Frazier and Austin Meadows. Frazier is a guy who doesn’t have any standout skill-sets, but projects to have above-average potential in all areas of the game. There’s a chance he can stick at center field in the long-term, but even if he has to move to a corner, his bat should still be able to play there without a problem. Some scouts have Meadows with a higher ceiling, but Frazier is the safer pick and someone who still projects to have impact potential.
– Matthew Collins, Over the Monster
8. Kansas City Royals – Alex Gonzalez, RHP
No. 8 seems like a tough spot in this draft, especially since the two guys I was targeting — Frazier and Shipley — were gone when I was on the clock. 8 is well after the consensus top three and before the time I’d typically be comfortable taking a mid-rotation college arm like Chris Anderson or Gonzalez. But Gonzalez has a pretty refined arsenal, including a nasty fastball/cutter combo, and I’d rather take a “safe” arm like Gonzalez rather than hope a high school guy like Trey Ball gets to the point where Gonzalez already is. Plus, I might be able to cut a deal with Gonzalez and use my savings later on to lure high upside high schoolers with strong college commitments, like Connor Jones.
– Luke Jackson, Baltimore Sports and Life
9. Pittsburgh Pirates – D.J. Peterson, 1B/3B
The Pirates had a decision to make between taking a pitcher or position player and D.J. Peterson won out. The biggest reason is because the kid can hit. He’s a solid college performer who has already played at a high level on a big stage, for Team USA – he led them in home runs and RBI. Of all the college bats available in the draft Peterson’s is probably the most advanced other than Kris Bryant.
Current third baseman Pedro Alvarez has some serious power but has difficulty making regular contact. Peterson can do both and still play decent enough defense to stick at the hot corner.
– Lance Rinker, Baltimore Sports and Life
10. Toronto Blue Jays – Austin Meadows, OF/1B
Meadows might have suffered in this draft because of his similarities to recent ‘failed’ draft picks whose young professional careers are off to rough starts. Despite that, Meadows at 10 is a great pick for the Blue Jays who need to re-stock their farm system after trades and promotions have left the minors somewhat light.
Meadows is a projectable left-handed hitting outfielder who has the speed and arm to play a solid defensive centerfield. If his hit and power tools develop into the above average future tools many scouts see, he’d be a steal at 10 for the Blue Jays. While this pick certainly carries significant risk, the upside is just too much to pass up at this point in the draft. Ultimately, the Blue Jays will be ecstatic if they can develop Meadows’ hit tool enough for him to achieve his tremendous potential.
– Jeff Long, Baltimore Sports and Life
11. New York Mets – Eric Jagielo, 3B/OF
Conventional wisdom based on the last few drafts that Mets have conducted might be that the team would be focusing on an advanced, high-upside college hitter in the mold of Dominic Smith. However, there have been rumblings that the team is looking more toward offensive college third basemen. With Moran and Peterson off the board, it leaves Jagielo, a lot of space, and Chad Pinder. Jagielo’s main tool is his prodigious power, but his defense should give him a good shot to stick at third. If not third, he is fast enough to be adequate in a corner outfield position.
– Jon Shepherd, Baltimore Sports and Life
12. Seattle Mariners – Trey Ball, LHP
It would have been nice to be able to take a position player since the Seattle system is completely devoid of position player prospects at the moment. But I am a proponent of the best player available strategy. At pick 12, the value in being able to take a 6’5” projectable high school left hander with 3 pitches was too much to pass up. Already sitting in the low 90’s, I would project his velocity to tick up a notch or two as he fills out. He’s also a top position player prospect which speaks well to his athleticism.
– Kevin Ebert, Baltimore Sports and Life
13. San Diego Padres – Aaron Judge, OF
An absolute physical freak. He has a huge frame with tons of raw power potential. He has a big-time chance to become an impact bat, but there are still concerns about how his bat will play. Contact concerns and some holes in his swing are still evident, but the Padres could use a legitimate Power prospect like Judge.
– Tucker Blair, Baltimore Sports and Life
14. Pittsburgh Pirates – Dominic Smith, 1B/OF
Conventional wisdom would say that the Pirates should take a pitcher here but with Smith still available he was just too good to pass up. Even though he’s a high school hitter and they don’t always mature at a fairly quick pace this is another kid that can flat out hit. He does have some power potential but even if it doesn’t ever fully develop he’s still a guy that can hit for a high average, pound the gaps, and play solid defense at first base and be decent in the outfield.
The offensive floor, in my opinion, for Smith is what the Pirates currently get from Garrett Jones. A bold statement for a high school hitter but one I’m confident in.
– Lance Rinker, Baltimore Sports and Life
15. Arizona Diamondbacks – Hunter Renfroe, OF
While they thought long and hard about Ryne Stanek who has been dropping down the board, ARZ chose to go with a college bat that is loaded with power. Renfroe projects to be an above average hitter with plus power, and a good defensive player with a strong arm. Renfroe is also an above average runner, who may be able to fill in out in CF, but looks to be better profiled for a corner spot.
16. Philadelphia Phillies – Reese McGuire, C
To justify taking a high school catcher this high in the draft, you have to be reasonably sure that he is going to stick behind the plate. Thankfully, we can be relatively certain that McGuire will. McGuire has been described as an advanced defender, already showing pop times of under 1.85 seconds. His bat lags behind the glove, but with slight refinements to his offensive game he can be a starting catcher in the big leagues.
– Kevin Ebert, Baltimore Sports and Life
17. Chicago White Sox – Ryne Stanek, RHP
It’s never a bad thing to grab a polished college pitcher, and in Ryne Stanek, we feel we got one of the last ones. Stanek — the preseason pitcher of the year in the SEC — went 9-2 with a 1.40 ERA and projects as a potential No. 2 or No. 3 starter. If his changeup develops, the sky is the limit for this right-hander.
18. Los Angeles Dodgers – J.P. Crawford, SS
Crawford is one of those rare HS shortstops who projects to stay at the position throughout Pro Ball. Crawford is raw in many parts of the game (as is typical with high school selections), but has shown flashes of a plus arm to go along with above average range at SS. He’s very raw with the bat, but many scouts think that his issues are mechanical and can be ironed out with proper instruction.
Crawford isn’t likely to be a high school pick that blazes through the minors, but he has the potential to become a plus defender at a premium position. Listed at 6’2″ and 175 lbs, the bat is projectable, and something Dodgers fans could dream on. With the ownership pouring funds and resources into the MLB club, Crawford is the perfect pick for them, as he can take his time in the minors developing his bat.
– Jeff Long, Baltimore Sports and Life
19. St. Louis Cardinals – Tim Anderson, SS/OF
Anderson’s a bigger risk than J.P. Crawford, who’s a better defensive player, but I think the Cards can roll the dice a little here considering they already have a bunch of decent defensive shortstops in the organization that don’t hit much. The parent club is stacked, so they can afford to take the time to be patient with Anderson. I considered another interesting project, Phil Bickford here, but I think this is too high to go that way.
20. Detroit Tigers – Nick Ciuffo, C
This draft is regarded as having excellent C depth and DET takes advantage of that, picking up one of the young, high upside Catchers. Ciuffo, like most HS catchers, still has some things that he needs to work on, but aside from McGuire is the best young C prospect in the draft. He’s got good tools behind the plate, with good pop times and a strong arm, and has a lively left-handed bat with good mechanics. He may be the best all-around C prospect in the draft and should progress quickly for a HS player due to his well-rounded tool set.
21. Tampa Bay Rays – Devin Williams, RHP
I think the Rays would like one of the top catchers to fall here and if that doesn’t happen they will likely do what they do and grab a high upside arm like Williams who can already touch the mid 90s and has a lot of projection left.
– Jonathan Mitchell, DRays Bay
22. Baltimore Orioles – Chris Anderson, RHP
Big dude, looks like a pitcher, really just needs that 3rd pitch and since he’s still around here, I’ll take him. If he can change speeds better, he could get through the minors very quickly. Keith Law put Chris Anderson in orange-and-black in his most recent mock draft and this is a pick I’d find it hard to argue with him.
23. Texas Rangers – Oscar Mercado, SS
The Rangers prioritize toolsy up-the-middle players in their farm system, and Mercado would fit right into a farm system that has guys like Luis Marte, Luis Sardinas, and Rougned Odor, while having graduated major leaguers Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar and Leury Garcia. Mercado hit under .300 as a high school senior, which is scary, but the Rangers tend not to be scared off by questionable hit tools, as exemplified by their grabbing Lewis Brinson with their first pick last year.
24. Oakland Athletics – Phillip Ervin, OF
Ervin is a college outfielder who fits the mold of the outfielders the A’s tend to target…he’s not big, but he is fast and could play either left field or center field, and does a lot of things well.
25. San Francisco Giants – Rob Kaminsky, LHP
He’s got a 90-94mph FB, but he has the best CV potential in the entire draft, with a legit plus-plus pitch. For a team that Barry Zito got such a large contract from, it would make sense that they would take a kid that reminds so many people of him. Also has a decent change up, so anytime you can get a HS lefty with 3 pitches already, and the potential for a plus-plus pitch, you should take notice.
26. New York Yankees – Riley Unroe, SS
Toolsy shortstop that actually has a chance to stick there. The Yankees absolutely love these types, as noted in their past drafts.
– Tucker Blair, Baltimore Sports and Life
27. Cincinnati Reds – Hunter Harvey, RHP
Reds would be thrilled with a high ceiling arm available to them this late in the round. Harvey has a hard fastball, that should should settle into the low 90s as a professional. He has room on his frame to fill out and add a couple more mph on that pitch. His primary weapon will be his curveball that flashes plus and could be a plus plus offering if he improves what he has already shown.
A developing of a change will be the determining factor of whether he is targeted a rotation or bullpen, but that decision will happen a few years from now. If an arm like Harvey is not present, do not be surprised is one of the catchers are selected here.
– Jon Shepherd, Baltimore Sports and Life
28. St. Louis Cardinals – Travis Demeritte, 3B
Demeritte’s still on the board and I think 28’s a solid place to be taking him. Most don’t think he’ll stick at short, with third base or the outfield more likely, but for the same reason I gave the Cards Tim Anderson above — loaded roster with plenty of upper minor talent — I think the Cards can go for the raw/upside picks here. Like Anderson, if he flops, it’ll probably be a gigantic one, but that’s OK for the Cards given their current organization.
29. Tampa Bay Rays – Austin Wilson, OF
Wilson has battled injuries that could lead to him falling towards the back of the first round. The Rays have taken college bats in the first round lately and I think they continue that trend if Wilson and his plus power and plus arm fall to them here.
– Jonathan Mitchell, DRays Bays
30. Texas Rangers – Cody Reed, LHP
Reed was undrafted both out of high school and after last season, but he is a helium guy right now because of his recently-discovered ability to throw 95 mph.
This is the type of arm the Rangers like to take chances on, someone very raw, inexperienced, but big, athletic and with a bunch of upside potential. Reed is someone who would be several years away, but could pay off in a big way if he were to click.
31. Atlanta Braves – Hunter Dozier, SS/3B
He’ll move off shortstop in pro ball, but he’s got the arm and hands to handle the hot corner. Dozier can really hit, as he’s performed like a stud during all three years of college ball. He’s got a chance to get on base and hit for power and stick on the left side. What’s not to like?
– Luke Jackson, Baltimore Sports and Life
32. New York Yankees – Sean Manaea, LHP
He could have easily been a top 10 pick if not for the injury. He is a power arm and someone the Yankees could steal in the back end of the first round. He will cost some money most likely though.
– Tucker Blair, Baltimore Sports and Life
33. New York Yankees – Rob Denney, C
Shows promise in the bat, nice and clean stroke with some power potential. That is the main thing, waiting or hoping on that power potential to come through. Behind the plate, I think he is a serviceable catcher and someone the Yankees should welcome into their system
