Every week, the Orioles analysts here at Baltimore Sports and Life will collaborate with a special guest from network partner at 24×7 Networks – Eutaw Street Report. We’ll have a Q&A roundtable discussion on a variety of topics around the O’s and MLB in general. This week, Derek Arnold joins BSL Analysts Chris Stoner, Patrick Dougherty, and Jeff Long.
Discuss this post and your responses on the BSL Forums here.
Q1: Kevin Gausman has already set a career high in innings pitched so far in 2014. Gausman could probably either remain a starter for the rest of the regular season and pitch in relief in the playoffs OR skip a start or two and be in the rotation for a playoff series. If you were the O’s, would you have Gausman be a starter or reliever in the playoffs?
Chris Stoner: I think Gausman has the highest ceiling of any Orioles starter, so there is temptation on my part to have him as part of the post-season rotation and see if he can catch fire. Conversely, I think it can be argued that Gausman is the most likely to currently implode in any given start. There are issues with fastball command, and the slider needs work. He threw 129.2 combined innings last year, and has thrown 134.2 combined innings so far here in ’14. I think you can reasonably push him out to 165 innings, so you have the option of using him as a starter in October if you want to. All year I felt he was a Wild Card for the O’s. That he had the potential to come on as a Front-end starter and help the O’s get to the post-season; and that if they got there – he could be an arm to lean on. While I’m pleased overall by his 2014 year, I think I’m currently leaning to him being used out of the bullpen during October. He was exceptional in that capacity in ’13. Team him with Miller, O’Day, & Britton; and you have a highly elite group.
Derek Arnold: I’d have Kevin as a reliever. I think we’re all a bit disappointed by his results so far this second half, and while his peripherals may back up a larger role, I think at this point I’d be more comfortable seeing him come in from the bullpen than start a playoff game.
Patrick Dougherty: I think Gausman would be most effective out of the bullpen, which is where most of his contemporaries in age and ability have performed well in the playoffs. That’s not necessarily the best route for the team though, who already have a great bullpen (last night notwithstanding) and for whom there is no real better option than Gausman. He has the highest ceiling among all starters, and he’s been the best starter by FIP (3.45) and second best by xFIP. I think the team dances around putting him in the ‘pen and ends up keeping him out of a few starts when the season is all but over, but he’d be better out of the bullpen and could provide long relief if Buck wants to keep a short leash on starters that go bad in October.
Jeff Long: My personal preference is to let Gausman start in the playoffs, though I know I’m likely in the minority there. According to FIP Gausman has been the best starter the O’s have had this season, and my intention would be to run with that in the playoffs. He’d make an excellent reliever though, so I can see why many want him in that role in the postseason.
Q2: With Manny Machado out the O’s have used 5(!) different infield alignments to start the game over those 20 games. With Pearce, Davis, Schoop, Flaherty, Hardy, Paredes, and Johnson as options for the infield positions, what is the best lineup for the O’s without Manny?
CS: I would go with Davis at 3rd, and Pearce at 1st. Obviously Hardy and Schoop at SS, and 2nd. My hope would be to have late-inning leads, and have the option to use Johnson (or Flaherty) as a late-inning defensive replacement at 3rd, and then shift Davis back across the diamond.
DA: Give me Pearce at 1B, Schoop at 2B, Hardy at SS, and Davis at 3B.
PD: You’re asking about lineup, but I’m assuming that you mean more than just the batting order. Davis and Pearce are about equal at first base per DRS this season, both saving 8 runs more than average at the position – and Pearce has reached that in about 1/3 the innings, so there’s an argument to be made that he’s been even better defensively at first than Davis this season. Schoop has been the best 2B by DRS, saving 8 runs above average, while Flaherty has saved 2 over about 1/4 of the innings. Paredes has been just below league average in limited play at 2B, and Kelly Johnson has been just above. Flaherty has been better than Davis defensively at 3B, but Davis’ offense even in a bad season has been worth more than Flaherty’s, plus he has incredible potential to change what will likely be low-scoring games with one swing. I’m glossing over shortstop because that’s obviously Hardy’s position and having to put someone there due to injury would make me sad.
So the ideal lineup with this crew is what the O’s are probably using most often, and it’s definitely the one made up of the best bats:
1B – Pearce
2B – Schoop
SS – Hardy
3B – Davis
That also keeps versatile and capable players on the bench for rest days, defensive adjustments, and injuries. It’s not the worst thing to bench or DH Davis against lefties, bench Pearce against righties, or give Hardy the occasional extra day off, either, which is pretty much what the Orioles have been doing.
JL: I’m going to go against the grain and say I’d rather have Davis stay at first base. There’s a reason the O’s haven’t run Davis out at 3B since right after Manny got hurt. My alignment would likely have Paredes/Flaherty at 3B, Hardy at SS, Schoop at 2B, and Davis at 1B.
Q3: Ubaldo Jimenez’s season has been disappointing to say the least. His recent work out of the bullpen leaves a lot to be desired, creating an uneasy situation when considering playoff rosters. Does Ubaldo Jimenez make your playoff roster as either a starter or reliever?
CS: In a 5 game Division Series, I don’t see any reason for Jimenez to be part of the roster. You figure to only use 3 starters (maybe 4), meaning that one or two current members of the rotation would be available out of the bullpen as a long man. Further, I think my ALDS staff would only include 11 pitchers, and I think you can argue for as few as 10. Looking past this year, I’m not totally done on Jimenez. I’d hold out some hope that the O’s could refine/simply his mechanics a bit and make them more repeatable. Hopefully with improved mechanics, he can get his control back to his career averages vs. his ’14 levels (career BB/9 rate of 4.16 not good, but considerably better than his 5.51 BB/9 rate this year, which is just so amazingly poor).
DA: In a perfect world, I’d leave him off the playoff roster altogether. Though I’ve seen it written that, because he doesn’t have any options, the O’s HAVE to put him on the playoff roster or put him on waivers. Please correct me if I’ve been misinformed, which I’d love to have been.
PD: After that Einstein’s Riddle of a second question, I’m going to keep this one simple: no. I don’t trust him. I don’t trust him to start, and I don’t trust him to enter into any close games. The only purpose he could serve is the Kevin Gregg role from a few years back, which is to eat innings in blowouts because you have to play 9 innings of baseball. Even then, Ubaldo has the chance to make a 5-0 game 5-4 really quickly. I would not like him here or there. I would not like him anywhere. I would not pitch him in a boat. I would not pitch him with a goat.
JL: Previously I’ve said that Ubaldo would absolutely be on the playoff roster. That may still be the case, but he won’t make MY playoff roster any longer. I felt Ubaldo would excel in the ‘pen with a reduced repertoire, but he’s chosen to use all of his pitches in relief which makes him less useful to me as a reliever. Sorry Ubaldo.
Q4: The O’s lack the frontline pitching of many competitors in the AL playoff race (DET – Scherzer, OAK – Lester, KC – Shields, SEA – Felix, etc). Do you think that puts the O’s at a sever disadvantage in a short series? Or will their lackluster pitching and timely hitting be enough to give them the upper hand in an unpredictable 5 or 7 game series?
CS: My two biggest concerns for the O’s in the post-season have been the lack of an ACE and the mediocre on-base % skills (20th overall). At this point, I’m less concerned with the rotation. Tillman has been very strong his last 15 starts. Between him, Chen, Norris, Gonzalez, and Gausman – I believe the O’s will have 4 viable starters with whoever they choose. They lack the ACE that you can expect to dominate the opposition, but they have arms capable of consistently giving you a chance to win. (Their ability to regularly take the ball, and make their starts is part of the overall success the O’s have had this year.)
O’s starters rank low in K’s, and high in homers allowed – but their on-base % allowed, and OPS against are reasonable. Starters ERA now 6th best among AL teams. Believing in the O’s rotation goes a bit against ‘conventional baseball wisdom,’ but I’m pretty comfortable with the group as a whole. It helps that if they get through the 6th, they can turn games over to their talented bullpen teammates.
DA: Not at all. I like the Birds’ record against “top” starters this year, and I’ll take our bullpen over that of Detroit (definitely), Oakland, and Seattle (though just barely). KC’s ‘pen scares me a bit, but I’m hoping that if we run into them, their bats are quiet just like ours were in 2012.
PD: I don’t think it’ll be an issue. Look, if the Orioles weren’t good at a lot of things, they wouldn’t be in this position. They play well against good pitchers because they’re good hitters. Their non-aces turn in consistently competitive performances. The back end of the bullpen shortens games to 6 innings for the opposing team. There’s no evidence that rostering an ace changes a team’s performance in the playoffs. One swing can change the outcome of a series, and the #1 thing that the Orioles are best at is doing damage with one swing.
JL: I think we’re set up for another low scoring run in the playoffs given the current roster. If the O’s pitching can step up and keep the opponent from running away with games, then I trust the offense to pick things up with some long balls in later innings to carry the team. I expect lots of games like those in the 2012 ALDS.
Jeff was the owner of the Orioles blog Warehouse Worthy, which focused on making advanced statistics a part of the conversation for the average fan. Outside of baseball, Jeff is a graduate of Loyola University where he received his Bachelor’s and Master’s in Business Administration. The Maryland native currently works for an Advertising Agency in downtown Baltimore. Previously a contributor to Beyond the Boxscore, he joined Baseball Prospectus in September 2014. You can reach him at jeff.long@baltimoresportsandlife.com.