The Orioles now sit 2.5 games back in the Wild Card race.  After taking 2 of 3 from Toronto, the Orioles still have a lot of work to do to make a run at one of the 2 Wild Card spots in the American League.  With a schedule that does them no favors during the last two weeks of the season, it’s going to be a difficult task.  Not only do the Orioles have 2.5 games to make up, but there are a total of 6 teams within 3.5 games of a Wild Card spot.

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Texas and Tampa Bay are now tied at the top of the Wild Card standings thanks to the Texas Rangers losing their last 6 games in a row.  With a 2-11 record during the month of September, the Rangers have gone into a tailspin.  What once looked like an assured playoff spot through either a division title or the first Wild Card spot is now very much in question.  Here’s a link to the Wild Card standings as of right now so you can see just how little separation there is between the 6 teams fighting for 2 spots. 

As has been talked about many times, the Orioles schedule down the stretch is no cupcake.  They still have the following schedule:

3 games @ Boston

4 games @ Tampa Bay

3 games vs. Toronto

3 games vs. Boston

This 13 game stretch is the most difficult schedule of all of the American League teams fighting for a Wild Card spot.  The Opponents Win Percentage for the Orioles remaining opponents is .555.  See the chart below.

 

  Games Left Opponents Win %
Cleveland Indians 13 0.419
NY Yankees 12 0.451
Kansas City Royals 13 0.474
Texas Rangers 13 0.480
Tampa Bay Rays 14 0.518
Baltimore Orioles 13 0.555

 

The Indians have the easiest schedule remaining with just a .419 Opponents Win Percentage.  They are a real threat to steal one of the two Wild Card Spots because of their easy schedule.  Even though they are a half game out of a playoff spot right now, Cool Standings thinks they have a 68.8% chance of winning one of the Wild Cards.  This is in large part due to a schedule that finishes with the Astros, White Sox, and Twins.

The Yankees have the next easiest schedule; the only playoff contender they still have to face is the Rays for 3 games.  Otherwise, they get the Blue Jays, Giants and Astros.  That’s not exactly murderer’s row.  Furthermore, the Yankees have a minus 15 run differential and a 27-15 record in one run games.  The Orioles would be getting called a fluke all over the internet if that were the case for them.  I suspect the Yankees may not be as formidable as they seem.  They got demolished by the Red Sox in a 3 game series over the weekend too.

I don’t expect the Royals to be there at the end.  Even though their opponents have a .474 win percentage for the rest of the season, I don’t think this is their year. 

The Rangers and Rays are in the lead for the two Wild Card spots at the moment, but each of them are definitely doing their best to give us an exciting finish.  The Rays have gone 6-8 in September, while we already talked about how the Rangers are 2-11.  If these two teams had played better baseball this month, we wouldn’t be in for as exciting a finish.  That’s ok.  Besides rooting for the O’s to make the playoffs, I’m also rooting for a crazy finish where multiple teams have a chance to make the playoffs on the last day of the season.

The Orioles still have a decent shot to make the playoffs, even though Cool Standings only gives them a 5.9% chance to win one of the Wild Cards.  I would personally place their odds higher than that, maybe something in the 20-25% range.  I think it’ll definitely be difficult for them to win a Wild Cards spot, especially with some injuries to the rotation popping up at the most inopportune time.  Losing Bud Norris and/or Miguel Gonzalez down the stretch will definitely hurt.

So I think there’s still a chance the Orioles make the playoffs, even though it’s not likely. What do you think?

Kevin Ebert
Kevin Ebert

Kevin was the owner of the Orioles blog Eutaw Street Blues. He had operated the site since the beginning of the Orioles magical 2012 season. He tends to focus on sabermetric analysis of the Orioles and their minor league affiliates. He balances his analysis between what he sees with his eyes and what the analysis of the data says. The Columbia, MD native attended the University of Colorado at Boulder while obtaining a Bachelors of Science degree in Business Administration. He also attended Loyola University Maryland obtaining the degree of Masters of Business Administration. When Kevin is not reading or writing about baseball, he finds time to work at M&T Bank.

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