Is There A Case for Scherzer?

Most of the intriguing free agents have already signed on to long-term contracts, leaving the free agent marketplace looking as barren as a college campus during their holiday break. Just two of MLBTR’s top 10 free agents remain, with Max Scherzer (1) and James Shields (3) still looking for teams. It was somewhat expected that these two players would be longer holdouts than other names like Lester and McCarthy, and so here we are with minimal options come mid-December.

Discuss this post and a hypothetical pursuit of Scherzer on the BSL forums here.

The Orioles were never mentioned as a suitor for Jon Lester, though in hindsight he might’ve been a good target for the club. He didn’t cost a draft pick, and his contract–a six year, $165 million pact–seems reasonable given his track record of success and the lack of a draft pick required to sign him (surely that was enticing to Theo, Jed, & Co.). Lester’s agreement to don Cubbie blue left the Dodgers, Giants, and Red Sox out in the cold, staring at Scherzer and fellow starter James Shields on the market. At this point each team will decide if they want to pursue Scherzer and his mammoth contract, or if they’d rather pay a lesser fee in dollars to acquire a lesser talent in Shields.

There are plenty of reasonable argument to be made for the Orioles to pursue Shields. Rob Shields made many of those very logical arguments right here at BSL the other day, and you should read those. However, reasonable arguments are no fun though, so let’s look at some slightly more outlandish thoughts on why the O’s should pursue Max Scherzer.

Reason #1 – Scherzer is less likely to get hurt

Max Scherzer was a bit of a late bloomer, which is good for us. Scherzer hits the free agent market at 29 years old, though he’s only thrown 21,000 pitches in his MLB career, roughly 5,000 less than Jon Lester. Now, that doesn’t tell the whole story, but it is interesting to note that Scherzer might have less mileage on his arm than the other two premier options in free agency this year. Jeff Zimmermann did some analyses for MLBTR showing that Scherzer is in fact the least likely of the three to get hurt over the next three seasons, with a 34% chance of hitting the DL. While the difference between Scherzer and Shields is only 4%, that means that Shields is effectively 10% MORE LIKELY than Scherzer to hit the DL in the next three seasons. That’s significant.

Reason #2 – Scherzer is a legitimate ace

Two pitchers have posted more fWAR than Scherzer over the past three seasons. Their names are Clayton Kershaw (19.2) and Felix Hernandez (17.9). Scherzer has been one of the five best pitchers in baseball using any generally accepted measure you’d like to try for three full seasons now. His 2013 season may have been his “breakout” year, but Scherzer was already an excellent pitcher, posting 4.5 fWAR the year before. He’s so successful because he strikes out more than a batter per inning, and keeps walks to a minimum. Those balls that did end up in play came with a below average defense behind him, so his overall stats could’ve been even better than they were.

Reason #3 – The O’s need a top of the rotation pitcher

This one is a no-brainer. I think many Orioles fans are hoping that between Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy, the club will finally have that top of the rotation talent. I’m bullish on both pitchers admittedly, but putting a guy like Scherzer at the front of the rotation takes out all the guesswork associated with top prospects. Scherzer is an ace. He doesn’t have potential, he is what the O’s need. Gausman and Bundy will be at the very core of the best Oriole teams over the next few years, but Scherzer is the team’s best bet for an impact pitcher right now.

Reason #4 – Scherzer’s contract won’t be (that) crazy

There are rumors abound that Scherzer is looking for a $200MM contract, though I think that number is a bit ambitious for Scherzer and Boras. Realistically I think that Tim Dierkes’ proposed contract makes sense, especially given the lack of teams looking for starting pitching right now. Dierkes prososed a 7/$185MM contract which comes out to a $26 million AAV. Using a $7 million per win valuation, Scherzer needs to be worth less than four wins a season to make that contract worthwhile. Inflation will inevitably make that total number of wins required to break even come down as the cost of wins on the free agent market goes up. Yes, a $26MM annual contract would comprise roughly 20% of the O’s payroll, but those costs will be offset by having Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman on very cheap pre-arb salaries through the first half of the contract.

Reason #5 – The O’s can afford it

 

The image above shows the 2015 commitments for all MLB teams compared to the 2014 payrolls of each team (2014 is the light-shaded area). As you can clearly see, the O’s have a steep drop off from last season to next season in terms of commitments. Most of the costs the club will have to cover will come from arbitration-eligible players, but long term commitments are minimal. For 2016, the effect is even greater with only Jimenez, Hardy, and Jones currently under contract through 2016. The club has just $42MM committed to players in 2016, so fitting in Scherzer is feasible if the team lets some big payroll guys walk via free agency, and makes difficult decisions around expensive arb-eligible players. All of this is to say nothing of the large increase in funding to teams from MLB’s national TV deal set to hit next season.

Will it happen?

The easy answer is probably not. Scherzer will sign a massive deal that will go beyond the O’s comfort level with long-term deals for pitchers. Dedicating a massive amount of your payroll to one player is bold, if not downright misguided, so the club should be wary of taking on such a big commitment.

There are certainly reasons to consider Scherzer as an option. Especially as significant contracts come off the books for the club in coming seasons. Still though, signing Scherzer would be very a great departure for the Orioles’ front office. Don’t expect the Orioles to go out and sign Scherzer next week. But don’t dismiss the idea out of hand either, because there are plenty of reasons that Scherzer to the Orioles might make some sense.