One of the more interesting moves the Baltimore Orioles made this Winter, was the addition of Taiwanese lefty Chen Wei-yen.
The 26 year old Chen is known as a power arm, whose velocity dipped in ’11, as he dealt with a leg injury. In ’11, Chen was 8-10, with a 2.68 era. In his 164.2 ip, he allowed 138 hits, 9 homers, 31 bb’s, with 94 k’s.
For his career in the Japanese Central League, Chen was 36-30, with a 2.48 era. In 631.1 innings, he allowed 518 hits, 47 hr’s, 153 bb’s, with 500 k’s.
During this Winter, we asked numerous analysts for their thoughts on Chen. Here are some of their responses:
Jim Callis, Baseball America: “…It’s just so hard to project how foreign major leaguers will translate to MLB. The AL East is an unforgiving division, and Chen will have to regain his velocity to survive.”
Matthew Pouliot, NBC Sports / Hardball Talk: “I gave Chen a 4.26 ERA in 171 innings and Wada a 4.42 ERA in 183 1/3 IP. I do feel a bit more secure with the Wada projection, considering that I’ve seen more of his video and he doesn’t come with Chen’s health questions. Chen would seem to have the greater upside of the two, but that much reported velocity drop is definitely a cause for concern. It’s a projection that’s likely to change some depending on how he performs this spring. If he’s back throwing in the low-90s this spring, he could prove to be a steal for the Orioles.”
When it appeared that Wada would join Chen in the rotation, we asked analysts if they believe the duo could combine for 350 innings at a 4.50 era.
Brandon Warne, FanGraphs: “ The ERA might — and that’s a very uneasy might — be realistic, but that’s just too many innings. That would be 175 innings apiece, which seems unlikely for two hurlers who haven’t seen an inning in the big leagues yet. Very few debuting big leaguers’ — only Jeremy Hellickson comes to mind from 2011 — throw that sort of workload. My best guess would be something more like 300ish innings at a 5.00 ERA. I think Duquette and the O’s would have to be pleased with that, too.”
Satchel Price, SB Nation: “I think that expecting a 4.50 ERA over 350 innings from those two guys would be setting pretty high hopes. There aren’t many pitchers that can reasonably be expected to pitch 175+ innings annually, and asking two guys with zero MLB experience to do so seems like a lot.”
Marc Normandin, SB Nation: “An ERA of 4.50 isn’t that high of a bar to set – the league-average ERA in 2011 was 3.94. I can see them being below-average arms at the back of the rotation, but more stable than some of the others the Orioles have tried out for the same role in their recent history. Either way, though, the O’s didn’t invest a whole lot of money into the duo and aren’t exactly stocked with alternatives, so as long as these two are usable arms, the O’s have done well in this situation.”
Stan McNeal, Sporting News: “Though I know little about either, I think 175 innings and a 4.50 ERA from either would earn Dan Duquette votes for executive of the year honors. These guys will be paid less than $5 million each this year. A free agent starter expected to put up a 4.50 ERA in the A.L. commands upwards of $10 million. I think getting 60 starts combined from the two would be a success.”
Prior to his signing with Baltimore, Don Olsen from Orioles Nation provided a Scouting Report on Chen (http://orioles-nation.com/2011/12/13/chen-wei-yin-scouting-report/):
“Chen has a game that has slowly built on command locating pitches. He shows the ability to throw a curveball, splitter/forkball, change up, and as fastball that will likely sit in the 89-90 mph range in the Major Leagues…..His fastball showed some movement when I saw him in 2009… at its best it has late action that is tough to square up on. He shows pitchability and works the entire plate, and both sides equally against right handed and left handed batting… Chen does a poor job hiding the ball in his delivery and it might pose a problem against quality hitting that can shit on the off-speed stuff, and still catch up to his offerings. He needs his pitches to move constantly because his stuff cannot live with straight as an arrow life. I witnessed a lot of of the ball riding high in the zone a few years back and he cannot live in that fashion and have success in an AL park, even though recent reports indicate he is working lower in the zone on a constant basis….He is left handed, can throw multiple pitches, his arm speed can last deep into outings, and his off speed pitches sit enough off the fastball that he should profile a No.4/No. 5 type arm. Watching him pitch, he reminds me of a young Jimmy Key, although maybe tick below with his fastball velocity.”
Dan Moroz from Camden Crazies had an article (http://www.camdencrazies.com/2012-articles/january/orioles-sign-japanese-lefty-wei-yin-chen.html) in January projecting Chen. Moroz commented, “It’s a nice low-risk, medium reward move, and a much preferred alternative to giving multiple years to, say, Joe Saunders (who is probably a surer bet for a 4.50 FIP but doesn’t have the potential up-side).”
Ultimately Moroz projected the following stat line for Chen:
172.1 innings, 23 homers, 50 bb’s, 118 k’s, 4.42 FIP
I’m looking forward to seeing Chen’s debut. Clearly Chen, who turns 27 in July, has a lot more professional experience than a traditional MLB Rookie, but he will still be beginning a new chapter here. There are plenty of adjustments he will be facing (New Country, culture, increased travel, better talent, less domes, etc.), but his pure stuff should still be apparent right away. The O’s chances of exceeding expectations greatly increase if you become confident in Chen being a reliable starter.
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