After a 2-year hiatus, the championship trophy of college football again resides in the SEC. Will this be the start of another long streak as kings of the hill?
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
East
Tennessee – Is this the year Tennessee lives up to expectations? Last season’s disappointing offense returns QB Joshua Hobbs, 4/5 of the starting OL, and a great 1-2 RB punch in Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara. That group will need to do much more than they did last year, when they really faded late season. Defensively the front four is rock-solid, anchored by NFL-caliber pass-rusher DE Derek Barnett, and the jewel of the Vols 2015 recruiting class Kahlil McKenzie. Add in DC Bob Shoop, a major catch Butch Jones lured from Penn State, and the Vols D should pick up right where it left off at the end of last season, which was pretty good. The schedule is about as friendly as it can be for an SEC team, with Virginia Tech (breaking in a new coach) in Bristol as the only real non-conference challenge. But this season will come down to 4-week stretch starting Sept 24 when the Vols host Florida, then travel to Georgia and Texas A&M before hosting Alabama on Oct 15. But at least the two toughest opponents are in Knoxville. If Tennessee is going to return among the national elite, this needs to be the year. No excuses.
Florida – Jim McElwain couldn’t work a miracle with a terrible Gators offense he inherited, but he did well enough to get them back to their familiar place atop the SEC East last season. The offense went from bad to worse when QB Will Grier was suspended midseason (he’s gone now). Improvement this season will heavily depend on Oregon St transfer Luke Del Rio. That task will be complicated by the lack of a decent running game and a questionable OL. The good news is that the defense, which is why Florida won last season (#8 in the nation), should still be great. The front seven can get after the QB (3.6 sacks/gm in their 10 wins) and despite losing two secondary stalwarts in the 1st Round of the NFL draft, CB Jalen Tabor and S Marcus Maye return as potential All-Americans. Their non-conference schedule is a cakewalk, up until the season finale in Tallahassee. They face two challenging matchups of West teams, LSU and @Arkansas, but the East division may well be decided by the outcome of their Sept 24 visit to Tennessee.
Georgia – A Georgia alum, I’m sure Kirby Smart knew what he was getting into when he replaced the very-good-but-never-quite-good-enough Mark Richt. Georgia is a place that has long-held aspirations of consistently being among the nation’s elite, but never quite seems to get there. One one hand, when you are measured against the likes of Alabama, Florida and LSU, it’s almost unfair. On the other hand, the financial resources and nearby recruiting pool are right there for the Bulldogs. Smart continues the quest while inheriting a team with talent, but also question marks. As of this writing, 4 days before the season opener in Atlanta against UNC, Smart and OC Jim Chaney have yet to name a starting QB. Last season’s starter, Greyson Lambert, could get the nod for now but may only be a placeholder until superstar recruit Nick Eason gets more practice snaps. Brice Ramsey, who also handles punting duties, is in the mix. The offense will really depend on the ground game though, and that will depend on the health of RBs Nick Chubb (knee injury in 2015 and still not cleared to play) and Sony Michel (broken forearm over the summer). Defensively the front 7 has a lot of players to replace, but at least a secondary that already ranked #1 in the country in 2015 pass defense is back. The schedule isn’t terribly tough by SEC standards, so a 10-win season isn’t entirely out of the question, but 8-9 seems more likely.
Kentucky – The Wildcats’ offense was supposed to be pretty good last season. It wasn’t. Kentucky ranked #114 in pass efficiency and their QBs combined to throw just 10 TDs to 16 INTs. They do return 9 starters, and one of the two that must be replaced is QB Patrick Towles who left for Boston College. Drew Barker, a touted sophomore recruit takes his place, but he’s attempted only 70 passes so far. New OC Eddie Gran comes from Cincinnati to try and ease his transition and development. A solid running game led by Boom Williams should help. Defensively Kentucky has to deal with the loss of 6 of their top 7 tacklers from last season. There is some promise among the front seven replacements for coach Mark Stoops, but lots of inexperience too. The secondary shouldn’t be a worry though….3 starters return from a group that allowed under 200 passing yards per game. In addition to tough SEC East foes Florida, Georgia and Tennessee, Kentucky has road games at Alabama and state-rival Louisville to deal with. 6 wins and a bowl game are doable, and that’s usually good enough in Lexington, where talk turns to basketball by November anyway.
Vanderbilt – Coach Derek Mason needs to get Vandy to a bowl this season. Two difficult seasons, in the wake of two 9-win seasons under James Franklin, have even the Commodore faithful a but restless. Kyle Shurmur, who started as a freshman, is back along with 7 other offensive starters. 1,000 yard rusher Ralph Webb also returns to lead a ground game that needs to be consistently reliable. The Commodores hope all that experience will improve an offense that averaged only 15.2 points and 327 yards per game in 2015. They were particularly poor in the red zone, coming away with points in only 21 of 33 opportunities, and of their 15 TDs five came against lowly Austin Peay. Mason assumed DC duties last season, and got very good results. Seven starters return, led by the great LB-duo of Zach Cunningham and Nigel Bowden. A Sept trip to Georgia Tech is the toughest challenge on the non-conference schedule, and if the offense can come close to playing at the level of the defense, the 2-3 other wins from the conference schedule might be there to save Mason’s job.
Missouri – After surprising many with two East crowns in their first three SEC seasons, the Tigers fell hard in 2015. The reason was no mystery….the offense was bad, compounded by discipline issues for QB Maty Mauk that thrust then-freshman Drew Lock into a starting role he was not ready for. Off-field tumult, including a near walk-out by players as part of a campus protest against racism, and the resignation of coach Gary Pinkel due to health problems didn’t help either. Pinked’s DC, Barry Odom, is now the permanent man in charge. Lock also has a new OC to work with in former national championship winning QB Josh Heupel. Heupel will bring an Oklahoma-style offense that is fast paced and has the QB throw quickly, which Lock should be well-suited for. He’ll have experienced receivers to target, but none who stood out in last season’s mess, so someone must step up. The OL has to replace 5 senior starters….the silver lining is it wasn’t a stellar unit last season, so maybe the young guys can improve on things. Considering how little help they got from the offense, Mizzou’s defense was very good. They did lose LB Kentrell Brothers to graduation, and now DLs Walter Brady and Harold Brantley to dismissal. But there is still a lot of depth and talent. They open the season with a game at West Virginia and have to travel to Baton Rouge, but they are close enough in talent to UK and Vandy that 6 wins could be had if Lock and the offense can step up a bit.
South Carolina – As bad as South Carolina’s 3-9 2015 season looked, it has to be taken into context that they were barely even coached. As he has before, Steve Spurrier appeared to mail it in before he finally stepped down in midseason. Will Muschamp takes over and promises to have a more interesting offense than the insomnia cure he ran at Florida. Trouble is, what he has to work with probably won’t make the Gamecocks’ offense very discernible from the ones he had in Gainesville. Even with their first game on Thursday night at Vanderbilt a starting QB has yet to be named. Whether now or later in the season, it will eventually be freshman Brandon McIlwaine. Senior Perry Orth could still begin the season as starter. But like Muschamp did at Florida, SC will mostly try to grind it out on the ground this season. David Williams is the leading rusher among returnees, but he will have to find holes behind an OL that lost 3 starters. Muschamp loves defense though, and he’ll have his work cutout for him on that side of the ball too. Only 5 starters return to a unit that ranked 98th last year, compounded by the loss of star-LB Skai Moore to a neck injury. The schedule is relatively friendly. They avoid Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss from the West, and all but Clemson are winnable non-conference games. But I don’t see makings of a bowl team here.
West
LSU – Les Miles was seemingly hours from being fired at the end of last season for no other reason than he had gone too long without beating Alabama….since 2011 to be exact, followed by 5 straight losses, including the BCS Championship game after that 2011 season. Like I said earlier, that’s just life when you’re always measured against Saban & Co. This season Miles has a team that has its best chance in years to show the LSU administration they were right to have a last minute change of heart. While the prudent move might be to sit out and wait for the NFL Draft, RB Leonard Fournette will instead be back to power an offense that will require, and should receive, improvement from the passing game. Brandon Harris can make the throws necessary and should now have the experience to utilize quality receivers like Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural. Defensively Dave Aranda takes over a unit that needs no improvement, although a shift to a base 3-4 alignment could make a unit that is loaded with talent front-to-back even scarier. Outside the SEC West meat-grinder (with both Alabama and Ole Miss coming to Baton Rouge), an Oct 8 visit to Gainesville looms as the biggest hurdle on the schedule.
Alabama – I might regret bumping the Alabama down, what with being the defending champ and returning a talent-laden team. To me it was more a nod to a loaded and hungry LSU squad than a knock on the Tide. Alabama does have some replacing to do, but the early departure numbers weren’t as bad as they could have been, and as usual they have a fully-stocked cupboard from which to replenish. The two most notable departures are Heisman winning RB Derrick Henry and QB Jake Coker. For the first time in four seasons the Alabama starting QB will not be a senior. In a theme that has become all-too-common in the SEC headed into this season, the battle for the QB job will practically come right down to the opening kickoff. Cooper Bateman, Blake Barnett, David Cornwell, and Jalen Hurts are the long list of candidates this time. The good news is the winner will have one of, maybe the best receiving corps in the nation to throw to. Defensively, Alabama will be it’s usual self. The losses of A’Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed, Reggie Ragland and Cyrus Jones to the NFL shouldn’t slow them down much. The schedule could though. I mentioned how tough an opening week opponent Alabama is for USC….well, USC is by no means someone you pencil in as a win either. And their toughest conference games this season; LSU, Tennessee, Ole Mis and Arkansas, are all on the road. So maybe dropping them to 2nd in the West wasn’t a bad idea after all?
Ole Miss – You can forgive Rebels QB Chad Kelly if he needs a printed roster to remember his fellow offensive starters. Ole Miss must replace all 5 starting O-linemen and leading receivers Laquon Treadwell and Cody Core. There’s still plenty of talent among the WRs, but the OL might be another story. And that means the running game, which has been pretty anemic in Oxford for years as it is, probably won’t be much help. But Kelly might be the conference’s best QB, so the line just needs to give him a little time, no small task in this division. Defensively, they weren’t quite a great last season as 2014’s Land Sharks, but they were good enough. They will probably be counted on much more this season with the offensive turnover, but even with the loss of DT Robert Nkemdiche to the NFL, they should still be pretty good. Another hurdle will be overcoming the likely distractions of an NCAA investigation and potential sanctions in the wake of the Laremy Tunsil draft night debacle. The schedule isn’t very forgiving either. They get Georgia from the East, and a Monday night opener against Florida State in Orlando.
Arkansas – Bret Bielema probably isn’t the first name that comes to mind when you think of SEC coaches on the hot seat. But he heads into his 4th season now, and Arkansas didn’t spend millions to lure him from Wisconsin for 4th place in the division….and yet the Razorbacks could be a very good team and still do no better than that. Ah, life in the SEC West. At some point Bielema has to have told himself winters in Madison weren’t all that bad. On paper this should be his best team yet. Last season the Razorbacks were a balanced run/pass offense, very un-Bielema like. This season, even with Austin Allen returning to be the unquestioned starting QB and a solid corps of receivers, look for the offense to return to Bielema’s ground-and-pound ways. Defensively Arkansas returns a lot of experience, which should help cut down on the inconsistency 2015’s unit displayed. They had a solid front, but need harness that talent to get more penetration and QB pressure. That should help a secondary that allowed 275 passing yards per game last season. The schedule is bad news/good news. The bad news is they must face Florida from the East and travel to TCU. The good news is that Florida, Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss all come to Fayetteville. They won’t win all those games, but an upset or two is certainly possible.
Texas A&M – Speaking of SEC coaches on the hot seat, things have to be getting a little warm for Kevin SUmlin in College Station. It’s seemingly been on hit after another for the program, from exodus of QB transfers to boorish behavior by coaches to recruiting gaffes. And the offense that once looked unstoppable has been….mostly stoppable since some guy named Manziel left town. They did get a win in luring OC Noel Mazzone from UCLA. The will also hand the QB reigns to Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight. Knight was very highly recruited, but his time in Norman was very up-and-down and he eventually lost his job to Baker Mayfield. At A&M he will have a very good group of receivers led by Christian Kirk and Josh Reynolds. The OL must improve its pass protection (37 sacks allowed in 2015) and will have to do so with 3 new starters. The defense should be okay, but not good enough to carry the team. They improved from #102 in 2014 to #51 last year, but that improvement was almost entirely due to better pass defense (#4 in the country). All four secondary starters return, and so does future NFL pass-rusher Myles Garrett. That means just one thing….the run defense has to get better. It can’t get much worse. Sumlin probably needs 9 wins to comfortably secure his job. That won’t be easy with their schedule, but of their 5 toughest games (UCLA, LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee) only Alabama is away from home.
Auburn – And wrapping up our segment on SEC coaches feeling the heat is Gus Malzahn, whose chair is probably hottest of all. After playing for the BCS title following 2013, the Tigers have gone just 15-11 since, despite starting out #6 in both preseason polls. They are unranked headed into this season, just like in 2013, so there’s that. But to repeat that feat they must overcome significant turnover in both players and coaches. The most notable coaching departures were DC Will Muschamp and WR coach, and key recruiter, Dameyune Graig. They also lost all 3 of their top RBs from last season; Peyton Barber to the NFL, Roc Thomas to transfer, and Jovon Robinson to dismissal. The job now falls to former H-back Kamryn Pettway. At QB Malzahn will roll with Sean White, who did outperform the disappointing Jeremy Johnson last season before White got injured. Transfer John Franklin could also see time this season. Defensively the Tigers should be fine, with Kevin Steele (formerly of LSU) replacing Muschamp and Carl Lawson and Montravius Adams leading a very good front. Outside the division the schedule features a visit to Georgia and a home opener against Clemson. I went on record as saying Auburn could give Clemson a much tougher game than many think, but I won’t call an upset there. An 8 win season would be a pretty good result for Auburn, and Malzahn may need at least that to stay in town.
Mississippi State – Dan Mullen was a popular name in coaching rumors during the offseason, at one point even the rumored candidate to be taking the Maryland job. And why not, with All-Everything QB Dak Prescott off to the NFL? But as is often the case with rumors, nothing panned out and Mullen is back in Starkville. The Bulldogs will need to rely much more on their running backs now, Brandon Holloway leads a veteran group, but there is a solid rotation behind him to keep everyone fresh. Three starters return on the O-line with a good group of backups after allowing 30 sacks….but that number is somewhat misleading, as the mobility of Prescott led to several TFLs. Soph Nick Fitzgerald has the task of trying to fill Prescott’s shoes. He’s not nearly the runner Prescott was, but he’s got solid passing skills and enough playmaking receivers to be productive. Peter Sirmon is the 3rd DC in 3 seasons, and he inherits a defense that fell off slightly (mostly due to yards allowed in the air) from the outstanding 2014 unit, but was still good enough for DC Manny Diaz to be lured away to join Mark Richt in Miami. Simon isn’t likely to make many changes, and with the group he has returning that’s probably a good thing. The schedule is a Godsend (Kentucky and South Carolina in the East, a trip to BYU as the biggest OOC challenge) for the Bulldogs to at least make a bowl game. But probably no more than that.
Also in this Series:
College Football 2016 – The State of The Game
Up Next: Independents/Group of 5/Playoff Prediction
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.