On Thursday, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Detroit Tigers in Game 1 of the American League Division Series. To help preview the series, Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to Neil Weinberg for his thoughts.

While we appreciate the work Weinberg does for sites such as FanGraphs, Beyond the Boxscore, Gammons Daily, & The Hardball Times; we’ve reached out to him because Neil is a Tigers fan, who covers Detroit for his own site – New English D.

Our thanks to Neil for providing his thoughts here, and for having been a regular guest on BSL Radio during this 2014 MLB season.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

BSL: Verlander has turned it on during August and September (10 starts, 6-3, 3.99 era, 63.1 ip, 69 hits, 28 er, 4 hr’s, 13 bb’s, 54 k’s). What has been his primary adjustment, and where is your current level of confidence with him?

Weinberg: A lot of it has really been about commanding his pitches, specifically the fastball. Verlander’s stuff is obviously less impressive this year, perhaps because he spent the offseason recovering from surgery rather than strengthening his legs and core, but the raw stuff is still high quality relative to most MLB starters. The problem I saw with Verlander for most of the year was that he was approaching hitters like he could dial up to 101 or fire off a devastating curve, when it reality it was going to be 96 for the heater and only a very good breaker. When your stuff takes a step down, you have to be finer with your command and he really didn’t start to get a handle on that until the last couple of weeks. He got to a lot of two strike counts earlier in the year and couldn’t put guys away, but seems to have adapted a bit lately. I don’t think you’re going to see ace Verlander this October, but I feel confident that he’s back to being a very useful option rather than a liability like he was during the summer.

BSL: As you pointed out this past week on Sports Tonight with Rob & Mike, LF JD Martinez has poor plate discipline (30 bb’s, 124 k’s), but has been very productive offensively overall (.919 OPS, including a .559 Slugging %). After a torrid start to the season, he has slowed some after the All-Star break. Has there been any consistent adjustment you’ve seen from opposing pitchers against him?

Weinberg: You really just have to get him to leave the strike zone. Martinez put in a lot of work at the tail end of last year and over the winter to overhaul nearly every aspect of his swing, and that allowed him to drive the ball more consistently to all fields. He didn’t really get better at recognizing pitches, but he did get better at tagging the pitches that he did make contact with. When a guy has a .300 career wOBA, you can pretty much challenge him with anything and not be very worried about the outcome, but now that he can hit for more power, you have to be careful. He’s a guy you can pitch to, but he’s no longer someone who misses mistakes.

BSL: Former 1st round pick Nick Castellanos has just completed his first full year in the Majors. The 22 year-old RHH 3rd baseman has a wOBA just over .300, but showed some extra-base pop with 45 xbh’s. He hit RHP a bit better than Southpaws, but there was not some huge disparity in the splits. Defensively, FanGraphs shows his UZR/150 at -17.7, with his Defensive Runs Saved (as calculated by Baseball Info Solutions / The Fielding Bible) at -31. How did you view his season, and by the eye-test – is his defense at 3rd as poor as the metrics suggest?

Weinberg: Castellanos showed a lot of offensive promise this year and gave me a lot of faith in the scouting reports that were out on him during his MiLB career. He struggled with contact and had problems with pitches (especially sliders) down and away, but when he was on the ball and make good decisions about which pitches to attack, the ability to spray the ball around on a line was evident. I really think the bat is going to play at this level, even though the swings and misses held his overall numbers back this year. As for his defense, I have to agree with the numbers that he performed poorly. He made a lot of mistakes on relatively easy plays and didn’t have the range to make up for it. That said, he spent 18 months playing the outfield prior to 2014, so there’s got to be a bit of a grace period to allow for the transition back. He doesn’t have great range, but the arm is accurate and plenty strong, he just needs to improve on those in between plays where you have to react. I think he has the physical ability to be fine at third, but it’s going to require a good amount of work.

BSL: For me, one of the X-Factor’s for the Series is Ian Kinsler. The Tigers get on-base at a high clip (2nd overall in on-base %), but Kinsler does not (.306 on-base %) at the top of the order. The O’s need to keep him off base in front of the Detroit thunder in the middle of the lineup. From your perspective, which Tiger is the biggest X-Factor?

Weinberg: I sort of have two answers. If the Tigers are going to use Anibal Sanchez in relief, and find a way to use him properly during big moments, he has a chance to completely change the look of the team. Having an elite starter pitching in two inning sprints might make the bullpen an asset rather than a curse. But given that I can’t really expect Ausmus to deploy him properly, I’d have to say the X-Factor is Alex Avila. If Avila can stay on the field, his ability to lead a pitching staff and play good defense is really critical to the team’s success. Also he’s the only real left-handed threat in the lineup and he needs to be the kind of guy who makes the other manager go the bullpen and get the starter or top RH reliever out of the game.

BSL: Joe Nathan’s struggles this year at Closer are well documented. Former Oriole Jim Johnson’s fortunes have not turned around with Detroit, after his release from the A’s. Al Alburquerque has had a nice year, and is very tough vs. RHH. Phil Coke struggles vs. RHH, but performs well against fellow Lefties. After a long tenure with the Yankees, Joba Chamberlain was utilized often (68 outings) in his first year with Detroit, and was productive enough. Joakim Soria has had a quality career. Talented starter Anibal Sanchez missed the last 7 weeks with a pectoral strain, but has been activated, and could potentially help the Detroit bullpen in the Post-season. Have the issues with the Detroit bullpen been overblown? Which Tigers reliever are you most comfortable seeing come into a game?

Weinberg: The problems haven’t been overblown at all. It’s been a very bad showing for the bullpen this year. But you sort of alluded to the bullpen’s saving grace and it’s biggest issue. The talent is there, but the arms are woefully inconsistent, especially when it comes to throwing strikes. If everyone gets hot at the right time, the pen is more than capable but as a unit you can’t really bet on that. Johnson probably won’t make the playoff roster. Coke and Alburquerque have been dominant and erratic during their entire tenure. Nathan’s had a few good outings but has been mostly awful. Chamberlain was excellent in the first half but has really come back to Earth since. You trust Sanchez, but he only had one relief outing since coming off the DL and you don’t know how quickly he can adapt to the role, or if his manager will be willing to use him properly. Joakim Soria, whom the Tigers dealt two solid prospects for, is not a favorite of the manager, who only wants to use him during the 7th inning or in blowouts for reasons that aren’t clear to the fans or the media that covers the team. If you get everyone’s best, this is a unit that might scare you, but that’s never what you get with them.

BSL: In a 5 game series like the ALDS (or even in a 7 game series), the outcome really comes down to who performs in individual moments. That said, you can look at the strengths and weaknesses of these two teams and project how each could win. A Detroit series win would likely be based around their two current ACE level starters in Scherzer & Price (along with the aforementioned Verlander, and the very capable Porcello) controlling games; and the Tigers powerful offense (2nd in runs scored) scoring runs early against the Orioles starters.

A Baltimore series win would likely be based around their edges defensively (O’s 4th in Defensive Efficiency, Detroit 28th), on the bench, and in the bullpen.

Do you agree with this? How do you see the Series playing out?

Weinberg: Like I said on Sports Tonight last week, I think I’d favor the Orioles in a short series because they’re so much better in all of the areas that matter more in the playoffs. I think the Tigers would win more games over 162, but when the run environment is depressed and there are more off days, you like the team with better defense, base running, and relief pitching. The O’s should be able to control the late part of the game and while the starters aren’t as good as the Tigers, their defense can make up the difference in some cases. And this is to say nothing of the vast talent gap between the managers, as Buck is much more likely to use his pieces properly than Ausmus, which can swing a game very quickly. Those kinds of decisions often even out over 162, but if it’s first to three, you might not have time. As a Tigers fan and writer, I don’t want to bet against them, but if I was making the line, I would favor the Orioles.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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