When you wake up in the morning and read this, your Baltimore Orioles will be in first place by 1.5 games, with as many wins as second-place Toronto but a three-game advantage in the loss column. And just briefly late tonight, I’d like to take a look at some of the statistics that have gotten the Orioles to this point, and maybe break them down a little bit (all stats entering play Tuesday):
The Orioles are 10th in K/9 as a staff (8.7); that breaks down to 16th among starters (7.9) and 10th among relievers (9.9).
I think it’s reasonable to say we expected there to be a significant divide between the two units, and it’s just interesting to see how that breaks down across the board. Personally, I’m a bit surprised the rotation K/9 is that high, considering nearly half the starts through 11 games had gone to Yovani Gallardo and Vance Worley. To Worley’s credit, he’s fanned 11 hitters in 10.2 innings, but that’s more than likely a mirage than a trend. Between his days with the Phillies and Twins, he was always more of a pound-the-strike zone guy with very low swinging-strike rates. It’ll be intriguing to see if he lasts the full season in the rotation.
(Chat about this and more on the BSL boards here!)
Just eight teams are inducing grounders at a rate lower than the Orioles as a staff (42.8 percent); the rotation (40.8 percent, 28th in MLB) is especially low.
This just feels like a mistake in that the team defense would seem to favor groundball-type pitchers. Adam Jones is certainly competent in center — when he’s out there — and Joey Rickard has potential to be alright out there….but the overwhelming majority of the talent on this team defensively is on the infield. J.J. Hardy looks like he’s still one of the best at shortstop, and he’s flanked by a couple guys who range from absolutely fantastic (Manny Machado) to at least pretty good, and maybe very good (Jonathan Schoop).
There’s a big rift between starter ERA (5.14, 26th in MLB) and reliever ERA (2.03, second).
Again, this probably isn’t terribly surprising. This is a team structured for the five-and-dive approach. That is, get five innings from your starter and let your bullpen technician — Buck Showalter if you must ask — piece it together from there. And considering we’ve still seen nothing of Kevin Gausman and a fair amount of Worley, it’s not surprising the rift is quite sizable. In fact, Ubaldo Jimenez is the only starter with an ERA under 4.00 right now, and he’s got a heart attack-inducing WHIP of 1.50. Maybe Kyle Lohse isn’t a sexy name, but it’s no wonder the team is giving him a hard look.
Only the Rockies (25 home runs) have more than the Orioles (23); it’s worth noting that Baltimore does not play in a video game part for half of its games, however.
This team will live and die by the long ball, and right now it’s thriving. How’s this for a fun fact: the Orioles came into play on Tuesday first in the AL in home runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and total bases. They’re second in hits and third in doubles, and not surprisingly tied for last in triples (they have none). There’s something to be said for a team following the plan down to the letter. That’s happening here.
No team in baseball has fewer steals than the Orioles (two); one from Mark Trumbo (thanks Kurt Suzuki) and the other from Ryan Flaherty).
It’s not really from a lack of success either; it’s from a lack of trying. The Orioles have just three attempts, and Machado was thrown out. Still, this is a quintessential Earl Weaver team. With Weaver they’d play for the three-run homer; that seems to fit the bill here.
Chris Davis is taking this three-true outcomes thing a bit far, don’t you think?
Entering Tuesday’s game, Davis had taken 40 plate appearances; 31 — or over 75 percent — had ended in a home run, walk or strikeout. Davis is notoriously that kind of player, but last year in the full season his TTO score was just 59.2 percent. He’s ratcheted it up a bit in the early going. It’s not really meant to be a slight — home runs and walks are two of the most positive outcomes a hitter can have — but it’s just funny how one-sided these things can be in small sample sizes.
Machado is off to a ridiculous start.
He’s like the AL’s answer for Bryce Harper with his .383/.431/.732 batting line. It’s awfully soon and last we checked, Mike Trout still exists, but could this be an MVP-caliber year for Machado? It sure seems like it.
These are the storylines I’m keeping an eye on with the local nine; what about you?
Orioles Analyst
Warne is a Minnesota Twins beat reporter for 105 The Ticket’s Cold Omaha website as well as a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. He also contributes to FanGraphs / RotoGraphs.