In the last day, I’ve posted interviews with six different writers, getting their thoughts on the Orioles. This is Part 4 of a 4 part series, where we are taking a closer look at the collective responses received.

The six writers interviewed (with links to their individual interviews) were:

Dan Szymborski, BBTF / ESPN
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3285

Jonathan Mitchell, MLB Dirt
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3280

Bob Harkins, NBC Sports
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3278

Matt Klaassen, FanGraphs / Beyond the Boxscore
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3276

David Pinto, Baseball Musings / Baseball Analytics
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3272

Gary Armida, Baseball Report / Baseball Digest
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3265

Here in Part 4, we are going to look at two questions. 1) What do these writers think about Britton, Arrieta, and Matusz? 2) Should the O’s spend money this Winter?

“What are your current thoughts on Britton, Arrieta, and Matusz?”

Szymborski: “Matusz is a tricky one, because only a doctor knows exactly what’s going on inside his arm.  And even doctors aren’t perfect at getting injured pitchers back on the mound – Mark Prior isn’t not throwing 200 innings a year because of subpar health care after all.  Matusz is a complete crapshoot at this point, though the O’s are in a position that they can wait him out.

I still think Britton needs another pitch to be a really solid starter, I suspect he’s going to end up as a reliever in the long run.  A good one, though.  As for Arrieta, I still think he’s 4/5 starter material and again, the O’s can wait him out and hope for development, but they shouldn’t be writing him into the 2015 rotation in ink.”

Mitchell: “They are a good group to build around but they all come with question marks. I still believe Matusz has #2 potential in him but that velocity has to come back. Britton also has #2 potential and showed it last year but he relies on his defense to get outs and the defense behind him just isn’t very good. Arrietta is the darkhorse. If I ran the Orioles I would give him 2012 to fix the fastball command. If he does then you have a potential #3 guy. If not then you move him to the pen and hopefully his stuff plays up in short stints.”

Harkins: “The thing that concerns me about these guys is the control, which you mentioned. Britton walked 3.6 per nine innings, Matusz was at 4.3 and Arrieta at 4.4. This is unacceptable. It doesn’t matter how good your stuff is, if you can’t command it, you’re not going to get major league hitters out consistently, and their numbers prove it. The good news is that they are all in their early-to-mid 20s, so the their stories are far from over. One other guy who needs to figure things out within the next year or two is Chris Tillman, the other big acquisition – along with Adam Jones – in the Erik Bedard trade. Tillman, just 23, walked 3.6/9 innings last season, and has the exact same number in 120 minor league games.”

Klaassen: “I have no idea what happened with  Matusz… that’s beyond me. Just awful, and he looked so good prior that. Unless he looks like he’s “back” in the spring, he may need to start the season in the minors to regain his form and work out whatever went wrong. I heard a suggestion somewhere (Law?) that the infield defense (or lack thereof) might have caused him to start pitching differently, I don’t know. With Arrieta, they need to focus on making sure he is healthy to start the year, then go fro there. Britton may not have the upside of Matusz, but he’s the “safest” of these three going into 2012, I have the most confidence in his ability to at least have a non-horrible walk rate.”

Pinto: “They are rather low K, high walk pitchers.  They’re not terrible in either category, but they are not great either.  That’s a problem.  If strikeouts are low, walks need to be low, too, so that the extra hits from extra balls in play won’t hurt as much.  If walks are high, then strikeouts need to be high to prevent hits.  These three pitchers each need to become great at one of those.”

Armida: “I still like them all. Like I said earlier, the Orioles have to commit to them and keep running them out there. Matusz had everything go wrong for him—some health and some bad luck as his .382 BABIP would suggest. As long as he is healthy, I see him rebounding. I actually think Arrieta is the best of the three. I love his stuff, but like you said, he has to control it. 4.5 walks per nine innings is unsustainable. If he can cut down the walks, which I believe would cut down on homeruns too as a result of being in the count, he can lead the staff. I love Britton’s tenacity on the mound. His stuff translates into being the most consistent of the three. He was the only one to pitch better than his ERA suggests. His 4.00 FIP (Fielding Independent Percentage) actually shows he was hurt a bit by the Orioles’ defense. My one caution with him is that his strikeouts (5.4 K/9) are dangerously close to being a serious red flag. Pitchers who strike out five or less batters per nine innings don’t project well for the long term. Add in his elevated walk total, and you have some legitimate worries.

All three need a chance to develop. They are doing so in the toughest division in the game which tends to skew results a bit. The Orioles just lack that one 96+ MPH to allow these three to slot in spots 2 through 4.”

“Let’s say the O’s signed the following players for the following contracts:

Sizemore: 1yrs $9M
Buehrle: 4yrs $50M
Barajas: 1yr $2.5M (
Note from BSL, Barajas signed with Pittsburgh yesterday)
DeJesus: 1yr $5M

That would equal a $29M investment for ’12. Adding that to the $65-$70M payroll which currently exists, and we are talking about a payroll in the $94-$99M range. That would be elevated over last year, but probably palatable to the O’s.

This would leave the O’s looking like:

Buehrle, Guthrie, Britton, Arrieta, Matusz
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Tillman, Simon, Hunter, Patton

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 3rd
Wieters C
Sizemore DH
Davis 1st
DeJesus LF
Andino 2nd

Roberts, Barajas, Reimold, Adams

While I think those moves would improve the O’s, Baltimore would still figure to reside in the bottom of the American League East (unless Britton, Arrieta, and Matusz drastically raised their games). If they are unlikely to move out of the cellar with such moves, do you think Baltimore would be better off saving their money?”

Szymborski: “It’s enough to probably fight it out with Toronto a bit, but the O’s have so many concerns that a short-term payroll increase of this amount really doesn’t do much for the O’s fighting the Big 3 in the East going forward.  Taking risks on players like Sizemore is interesting when it’s cheap, but while I love watching Mark Buehrle pitch, I don’t think Baltimore is the best fit for him.  Any extra dough that could theoretically be spent should be spent overhauling a rather lousy international presence the O’s have.”

Mitchell: “I think they’d be better off saving that money. The free agent crop next offseason is going to potentially be great and I’d rather see them save it for that offseason or, if ownership is making Duquette spend that money he should spend it on a player like Fielder or Pujols that he can build a team around rather than a group of one year stop gaps for the same amount.”

Harkins: “Yes. The Orioles would be better off saving their money or funneling it toward scouting and development. The key to competing against the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East is the model established by the Rays – draft well, make smart trades, develop young talent, and flip guys who are about to become expensive for more young talent. The good news is that the Orioles have much more money to spend then the Rays, and if they can become competitive, those extra resources will give Baltimore a better chance than Tampa Bay of remaining competitive.”

Klaassen: “Yes, they should undoubtedly save their money. And if they get a chance to trade one of their better veterans for decent minor league talent, they should not hesitate. Hardy, in particular, could have some real value if he shows he can stay healthy for an extended period of time. Jones, maybe Markakis and especially Wieters (who will have the most value, as hard as it might be to part with him) could bring back something shiny. The Orioles have some good talent in the minors. They need more.”

Pinto: “Yes.  Only spend the money when the core of a winner is in place.”

Armida: “I don’t think Buehrle is an option for them. Your other suggestions might be. There are two schools of thought on this. One is that you sign these guys, hope they do well, and then trade them at the mid point. The risk is that you could get stuck with a dead contract. I love Grady Sizemore, but he’s a tough sign for a team in need of guaranteed production. Or, you simply just save the money and pour it into player development. If I’m the Orioles, I pick and choose a couple of hitters, but I don’t pay big money, even if I could get a prospect back. Most likely, they won’t get a return on their investment. If the Orioles want to win, they have to commit to player development and play the draft pick game like Alex Anthopoulos has in Toronto, getting compensation picks, if the new CBA will still allow for that. I’d go for the full-blown rebuild, sell the fan base on a legitimate plan, and show that improvement is coming. If the pitchers rebound and develop quickly, they’ll have the resources to add Major League-ready talent when needed.”

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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