Here are four moves that I think the O’s should consider for the 2010 season.

Every move has to either improve you for 2010, or better prepare the team for the long-term.

1) Make the newly acquired Josh Bell the starting 3rd-baseman, and end his switch-hitting. In 2009, the O’s 3rd-baseman have not produced. Wigginton has a .719 OPS in 267 at-bats. Mora has a .639 OPS in 307 at-bats.

Bell has a combined .888 OPS in 347 at-bats in the AA Southern, and Eastern Leagues.

This Minor League Equivalency Calculator linked below estimates that would equate to a .687 OPS.

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html

The bottom-line is that you should reaonsably be able to expect a .650 to .725 OPS for Bell in 2010, at age 23.

If you give him that experience for 2010, he will basically equate the level of production you have received from Wigginton and Mora in 2009. The real benefit is that Bell would be that much more developed, and ready to produce more regularly in 2011 when you plan on contending.

Bell hits righties extremely well, but struggles against lefties. Wigginton can come off the bench to hit against lefties (like he has done very well in most years aside from 2009).

2) Trade for the Brewers SS JJ Hardy, with a package headed by Guthrie. Hardy and Guthrie have both had down years. Milwaukee has a built in replacement for Hardy in their prospect Alcides Escobar. Hardy is also a FA after the 2010 season, which is incentive for the Brewers to move him. Getting back an innings eater in Guthrie, who is cheap and would be under team-control for several years would be a strong move for them. Hardy would be a tremendous upgrade for the O’s.

Hardy’s defense has been pretty consistent:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3797&position=SS#fielding

3) Committ to moving Berken, and Uehara to the bullpen, and Arrieta to the rotation.

It will be a young rotation in the AL East, and you will need arms in the bullpen that are capable of providing extended innings. Berken and Uehara to the bullpen (or even off the team) are locks.

Arrieta has had an inconsistent 2nd-half for Norfolk, but it is important to remember that 2009 was just his 2nd professional season. His combined stats between Bowie, and Norfolk were pretty strong. 121.2 innings, 115 hits, 43 walks, 127 k’s.

This would leave you with a 2010 starting-rotation of Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, Arrieta, Hernandez.

Do not get bogged down caring about where I have slotted the starters above. It does not matter if you are one of the 5. They are all young, with limited experience. What you have to remember is that these guys do not have to reach their cielings in 2010 to improve upon the starters you used in 2009.

The O’s have had 40+ 2009 starts from Hendrickson, Eaton, Berken, and Hill. That is 25% of the season, that will be improved on next-year.

4) Committ to not offering arbitration to Huff, and making Snyder the 2010 1st-baseman.

Between AA, and AAA this year; Snyder has a .878 OPS in 376 at-bats. This includes a combined .314 average, 27 doubles, 3 triples, 12 homers, 78 rbi, 39 walks, and 82 k’s.

When Snyder comes to the Majors, it is going to be an adjustment, and he is going to struggle. I would rather see that struggle in 2010 vs 2011. Ultimately, I think Snyder is going to hit for average, and provide a fair amount of doubles. If Snyder can bat at the bottome of the lineup for you in 2010, and provide a .250 average, 10 homers, 50 rbi, and a .700 OPS; you are better prepared for 2011.

Let us be honest, Huff has a .725 OPS in 2009. Even if Snyder only produced a .650 OPS, the difference between 2010 Snyder, and 2009 Huff would be limited enough; that the benefit of giving Snyder Major League experience can not be ignored.




This would leave you with a team that looked like:

Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, Arrieta, Hernandez

Ray
Johnson
Albers
Uehara
Berken
Random Lefty
Bass / Sarfate / Meredith / Mickolio

Roberts 2nd
Jones CF
Markakis RF
Wieters C
Reimold LF
Hardy SS
Scott DH
Bell 3rd
Snyder 1st

Wigginton, Izturis, Pie/Montanez, Moeller


Additional Thoughts) As Hardy is a FA after the 2010 season, you could argue that siging Tejada for 1 year deal at SS, and keeping Guthrie makes just as much sense. If that occurred, I would still promote Arrieta, and would move Hernandez to the bullpen.

Others will say, that if Guthrie was traded for Hardy, and you still wanted to ultimately position Hernandez as a closer; that you could pursue the FA pitchers Lackey, Bedard, and Harden.

Obviously the O’s have a preexisting relationship with Bedard, but his latest shoulder-injury and trip to Dr. Yocum figures to scare the Orioles off. Unless they feel they can get him for something like 1 year, and an option.

Harden turnes 28 in November, and has never come close to the 189 innings he pitched in 2004. You can not committ to the money he figures to get on the open market.

You could make a case for the O’s going after Lackey, but I see that as a total non-option. The O’s would have to completely over-spend to get Lackey to Baltimore. I would prefer to go with what you have.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

X