If the following is true

If you take Duquette’s comments on the record, and by what he has insinuated with his comments; the following statements are true:

1) The O’s payroll will remain stagnant at roughly $85M.

2) The O’s want to improve to above .500 in 2012.

3) The O’s do not intend to deal Jones, Hardy, or Wieters. It is unlikely that Markakis will be moved, and also unlikely that Guthrie will be moved prior to the non-waiver deadline next year.

4) The O’s will obtain pitching, and believe it will have to occur via trade.

With the assumption the above is accurate, my interest lies with discussion of what I would like to see happen, as opposed to arguing for or against the particulars of the individual statements.

I’d love to obtain the White Sox’s Gavin Floyd and Carlos Quentin. ESPN’s Jayson Stark reported last December (2010) that Chicago was shopping these two as a duo. The Sun’s Dan Connolly tweeted this week that multiple sources have confirmed that the O’s have interest in the pair.

Floyd, the Annapolis native, turns 29 in January. For his career Floyd is 58-55, with a 4.50 era. The RHP has 4 consecutive seasons of at-least 30 starts, and 187+ ip. In 2011, Floyd was 12-13, with a 4.37 era. In 193.2 ip, Floyd allowed 180 hits, 22 homers, 45 walks, with 151 k’s. He had a .685 OPS against (.743 for his career), and a G/F ratio of .84 (.82 career). Floyd is owed $7M in 2012, with a $9.5M club option for ’13.

Quentin turned 29 in August. For his career the RH hitting OF/DH has a .836 OPS. He has had 4 consecutive seasons of 20+ homers, including a career high 36 in 2008. In 2011, Quentin was limited to 118 games after spraining the AC joint in his left shoulder making a diving catch. In those 118 games, Quentin had 55 xbh’s, and a .838 OPS. Quentin is arbitration eligible for 2012, and a Free Agent for ’13.  Quentin had horrible UZR/150 numbers in the OF in ’09, and ’10, but had solid enough numbers in ’08, and ’11. He is probably best suited for DH, but serviceable enough to be used in both Left and Right.

If Chicago is going to move these two, their GM Kenny Williams is doing so to reduce salary. Based on that, there should only be so much going back to the White Sox. I would think Tillman, and Avery would be attractive to Chicago. Tillman has the tools to be a future Floyd, and would be under their control cheaply for years. Williams loves athletic prospects, and Avery qualifies in that regard. Would that be enough to get them back? Maybe not. Would Chicago have interest in Johnson? On ability yes, without a doubt. Johnson is arbitration eligible for ’12, and ’13. I’d include Johnson for Floyd and Quentin as I would prefer a starter I know is capable of 190 competent innings, as opposed to either having Johnson in the bullpen, or watching him transition to the rotation. I’d also be pleased to add another power bat to the lineup, with only giving up Tillman (who I am still a fan of), and Avery.

Another salary dump option is Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez. Joel Sherman tweeted that the Astros are again shopping Rodriguez. Danny Knobler of CBS Sports has reported that the Astros are telling teams they will not eat any of Rodriguez’s contract. We talked about Rodriguez at the trading deadline. The soon to be 33 year old LHP is 73-75 for his career (11-11 in ’11) and has pitched 191+ ip each of the past 3 years. In ’11, he allowed 182 hits, 25 hr’s, 69 bb’s, with 166 k’s. He held hitters to a .739 OPS against (.743 for his career) and had a G/F ratio of 0.89. He relies on the curve ball which he throws over 37% of the time. The average velocity of his 4 seam fastball was 89.2 mph. Rodriguez is owed $10M in ’12, $13M in ’13, and there is a $13M option for ’14 which vests if he is traded (with a $2.5M buyout). If Rodriguez is available, there are probably a number of packages which could work. Houston’s system is viewed as weak, and with the money owed to him, the Astros are only going to get back so much. Owing Rodriguez $36M over 3 years is not overly appealing to me, but I could make an argument for his acquisition if it could be done with one or two out of the Hoes, Townsend, & Mahoney. My sense is Houston is more concerned of getting rid of the contract, as opposed to whom is coming back. I think the O’s could get this done if they pushed for it.

With Pujols signing with the Angels today, Kendrys Morales should be available via trade. After a monster 2009 (.924 OPS, 34 homers, 43 doubles), Morales has been completely hobbled by injuries to his left ankle. Morales has had two surgeries on the ankle, and missed all of 2011. The 28 year old LH hitter made $2.95M in ’11, and is arbitration eligible the next two years. Nobody is trading any thing of real value for a guy that has played in just 51 games the past two seasons, but if the Angels are willing to move him – the O’s should be aggressively involved trying to obtain. If the deal was limited to Morales (and not including one of the Angels multitude of OF’s), I’m thinking call-up types of non-impact. Players like S. Johnson or Pelzer. If it took a younger prospect with some promise (like G. Davis) that still seems like an easy decision to me.

The Baltimore Sun reported yesterday that Showalter, and new International Scouting Director Ferreira were traveling to the Dominican Republic to personally view Cespedis. It only makes sense to go and see him, if Baltimore is willing to pony up around $60M for the OF’s services. I’d love to see it happen, but that would be a huge surprise to me. Ultimately Cespedis is going to have his pick of teams to choose from, and even if the O’s offer as much as anyone else, that still figures to not be enough to get him in a Baltimore uniform.

With the additions of Floyd, Quentin, Rodriguez, and Morales; the O’s 2012 roster would resemble something like:

Floyd, Guthrie, Rodriguez, Britton, Matusz
Arrieta, Gregg, Strop, Hunter, Simon, Bergesen, Patton or Eveland

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 3rd
Quentin DH
Wieters C
Morales 1st
Reimold LF
Andino 2^nd

Roberts, Teagarden, Antonelli or Flaherty, Davis

My rough estimation for that team salary is right around $90M. I would go into next season still expecting this team to finish in last in the American League East, but I would also expect them to end Baltimore’s consecutive years of losing. Should that be the focus? Again, that is discussion for another day. Based on the originally stated variables, this seems about as good as could be expected. It would be an interesting team, with three solid innings eaters leading the rotation and the promise of Britton, and Matusz behind them. If two veteran starters are not obtained, I’m all for Arrieta remaining in the rotation. If something like this scenario happened, I think Arrieta would be a more than capable replacement for Johnson.

The lineup would have potential as well. If Morales got back and performed, they could be strong. If Morales could not stay healthy, you would still have Davis available as a potential everyday option.