If the O’s decided after tonight to replace Rich Hill in the rotation, there would be a number of options available.
My assumption would be that if Hill was removed from the rotation, they would release Hendrickson, and have Hill replace him in the bullpen.
With Uehara just starting his stint on the DL, they would be looking for additional internal options.
Without cutting Hendrickson, they could simply swap roles for Hill and Bass.
I would guess the O’s would be opposed to that, as Bass is more valuable as relief-pitcher that can pitcher 2-3 innings a couple of times a week, then he would be as a 4-5 inning starter.
If the O’s were not ready to promote one of their legit prospects, they could promote David Pauley.
Pauley is a stop-gap player, that won 14 games in AAA in 2008; and has been competetive in 70 AAA innings in 2009.
If the O’s promoted him, they would simply be looking for him to provide 3-5 starts and give the higher-caliber prospects another month in the minors.
With those players out of the way, lets look at the top 4 pitching prospects of Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, and Patton and evaluate the reasons why the O’s could, and would not promote each of them.
Tillman
21 years old
5-5, 2.97 era at AAA Norfolk
72.2 innings, 62 hits, 21 walks, 75 k’s.
Why the O’s could promote Tillman: The front-office could promote Tillman, because he has handled the jump to AAA with success. The fact that he is allowing less than a hit per IP, and has more than a K per IP, shows his stuff. He has made 4 consecutive starts of at least 6 innings. He would not have to be the finished product he will become, to help the back of the O’s rotation now.
Why the O’s would not promote Tillman: He is just 21, and the O’s would like him to get additional seasoning in the Minors without the glare of the Major League lights. More importantly, they could want to hold Tillman’s promotion to the Majors until late-April next year, to gain an additional year of service-time. They may even want Tillman to stay in the Minors until June of next year to possibly avoid becoming a Super 2.
Arrieta
23 years old
1-2, 3.57 era AAA
6-3, 2.59 era AA
76.2 innings, 62 hits, 28 walks, 85 k’s (AA and AAA numbers combined)
Why the O’s could promote Arrieta: Former College pitcher, a few added years of maturity over Tillman, experience of pitching with the US Olympic team… Gets a lot of grounders…
Why the O’s would not promote Arrieta: Like Tillman, the O’s could be concerned about gaining an additional year of service-time, and potentially avoiding Super 2 status. While Arrieta is 2 years older than Tillman, it is Tillman that had the full-season of AA last year, and more innings at AAA this year. Arrieta has only had 4 starts for Norfolk, and the O’s might not believe he is ready for the bigs.
Matusz
22 years-old
2-0, 0.79 era AA
4-2, 2.16 era A
78 innings, 62 hits, 25 walks, 90 k’s (A and AA numbers combined)
Why the O’s could promote Matusz: Between his last 4 or 5 starts at Frederick, and his first two starts at Bowie, Matusz has been dominating for over a month. He was drafted out of College as basically a finished product. He can throw 4 or 5 pitches for strikes, and works backwards.
Why the O’s would not promote Matusz: He has made a total of 13 starts as professional, and just 2 at the AA level. The O’s know he has the ability to work backwards, but there has been some talk about wanting to see him use his fastball more often. The curves he is getting inexperienced professional hitters to chase in the minors, might not play with the same effect in the Majors. Like Tillman, and Arrieta; the O’s would want to gain an additonal year of service time, and potentially avoid Matusz obtaining Super 2 status if possible.
Patton
23 years old
1-2, 5.19 era AAA
6-2, 1.99 era AA
80.2 innings, 74 hits, 22 walks, 54 k’s (AA, and AAA numbers combined)
Why the O’s could promote Patton: While brief, Patton did have the prior experience of reaching the Majors in 2007. He has proven his arm is healthy, after missing all of 2008 with the torn-labrum. He was never touted as having great-stuff, but said to have a good feel for pitching. Since he missed last year, there is a limit to how many innings you want to put on his arm in 2009. If you want to take a look at Patton, while his arm is still relatively fresh, it might make sense to look at him for 50 innings at the Major League level now.
Why the O’s would not promote Patton: The fact that you received consistent production from Patton at AA, and were able to promote him to AAA was an unexpected bonus for 2009. Despite making the bigs in 2007, Patton only had 50 innings of work above the AA level prior to his recent promotion to Norfolk. The O’s might want to see him get additional time (and perform at Norfolk) prior to sending him to Baltimore. While he has never thrown hard, there have been reports of his velocity being down from his pre-surgery numbers.
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