Kansas City Royals Q&A with Jeff Zimmerman

The American League Championship Series begins Friday between the Orioles and Kansas City Royals here in Baltimore.

To preview the Royals, Baltimore Sports and Life (BSL) has reached out to Jeff Zimmerman for his thoughts. In addition to his work at FanGraphs, and Baseball Heat Maps; Zimmerman covers Kansas City for Royals Review.

On Thursday night at 8:20pm (est), Zimmerman will join BSL’s ‘Sports Tonight with Rob & Mike.’

Our thanks to Jeff for being generous with his time, and helping us preview the series.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

BSL: Mike Moustakas had a hero moment in the Division Series vs. the Angels; but the once highly regarded 3rd baseman saw his regular season offensive numbers regress for the second-straight year. His numbers vs. LHP were extremely brutal. Would you expect him to be PH for vs. facing any lefty late? How do you evaluate his play at the hot-corner (UZR/150, and DRS also tilting downwards)?

Zimmerman: I think Yost will pinch hit for Moustakas like he did in the wild card game. The one item to watch for is if Moustakas keeps up a hot bat. Yost loves to go with the hot hand and with Moustakas.

Moustakas and Escobar play a great left side of the infield. If you look at the numbers over the last few seasons, their combined UZR is almost the same from year-to-year.

BSL: Alcides Escobar has a deserved reputation as one of the best defensive SS’s in the game. He had a couple of strong months with the bat as well, and hit lefties well overall. Thoughts on the SS?

Zimmerman: He is a fast contact hitter who rarely takes a walk. He relies entirely on his weak contact getting through. When it doesn’t, he can struggle. Additionally, he should not be hitting leadoff with Alex Gordon batting 6th.

BSL: During the Division Series vs. LA, the internet nearly melted down watching KC play small ball. Are you a fan of Manager Ned Yost and his strategy? 

Zimmerman: I hate the bunting aspect. He bunts way too much and I it makes my blood boil at times. On the stolen bases front, I have no problem with them. They are part of the team’s success. They steal a ton of bases at high success rate and need to do it to win.

BSL: Royals starter Yordano Ventura might have the best power arm in the game. The 23 year old just completed his first full year as a starter in the Majors. How high a ceiling do you think he has going forward? One current weakness is his control. The O’s offense is known for being overly aggressive. Will they have to show some level of patience against him to have success?

Zimmerman: The one item probably limiting his upside would be his size. Some experts didn’t think he could make through one season of starting without breaking down. When a person watches Ventura throw, they can be awed by his stuff, but at the end of the day his strikeouts are lower than expected and his walks seem high. It would be nice to see both improve next season.

BSL: Designated Hitter Billy Butler was a monster in 2012 (.883 OPS, 62 xbh’s). This year his OPS was down all the way to .702. To his credit, he continued to mash LHP. What have you pegged as the cause of his struggles?

Zimmerman: Butler is big non-athletic hitter who is not aging elegantly. Most players with Butler’s body don’t play much past the age of 33. He may have already peaked, and is declining.

BSL: The Royals have a deep bullpen headed by Closer Greg Holland. Wade Davis had a big year. As did Kelvin Herrera. Which KC starter – former Oriole Jeremy Guthrie – or Danny Duffy figures to join them? 

Zimmerman: Probably Duffy. His shoulder was hurt towards the season’s end and in his last two regular season appearances, his velocity was way off. I think Guthrie will be the 4th starter while Duffy will see limited innings.

BSL: In some ways the O’s and Royals mirror each other – both teams have strong defenses, and bullpens. Obvious differences being the O’s power (Baltimore had 211 homers during the regular season, KC had 95) and KC’s speed. How do you view this series? Which Royal are you looking at as a potential X-Factor? 

Zimmerman: I think it will be close. It is tough to give any team the advantage. Sadly, it may come down to my X-Factor which is Ned Yost. He just gets too nervous and feels he has to do something instead of just letting his players play. The Royals have been winning despite Yost. I am not sure their luck can continue.

BSL: I’ve never been to Kauffman Stadium, but have always thought it is one of the better looking parks. From afar, it has been easy to appreciate the Royals success this year. Baltimore fans can easily relate to a long drought, after a history of franchise achievement. Give us a glimpse at what it is like in KC right now, and as a Royals fan – how enjoyable this year has been for you?

Zimmerman: The atmosphere has been incredible. I have been in Kaufman for both home games this postseason and it is more like a football game. Fans standing and cheering almost the entire game. The season didn’t always look encouraging, but around mid-August hopes were up as the postseason became a real possibility. It is nice to play meaningful games in September and now October.